Am I too Optimistic

[billyjoe]

One thing I really enjoy is checking my retirement accounts to see how much increase I'd need to retire at a certain age. Currently to meet my goal in 7 years
I'd need to compound a 1% gain per month on average for 84 months. Is this crazy thinking ? Over the last 3 month period , I'm down about .7% per month, but have had recent quarters averaging gains of 11% , 7%, and 4.33% per month.

Mr. Market has averaged over 1.52 of a 16%+ gainer per month for 54 months and even subtracting the losers he's got to be way over 1% per month. I'm no Mr.Market but how realistic is it to get 1% per month ? This is assuming no new money added . Funds are in IRA's , SEP , 403b and in mutual funds , common stocks , and money markets . Quite diversified , but not all 100% controlled by me.

-------------billyjoe

[DSteckler]

Billyjoe, what do you expect people here to say? That they're doubling their money every year so you can too?

Based on your number you're recent quarters are averaging 7% per month. So why are you asking if you can average 1% per month?

[billyjoe]

Dave,
From what I read almost no one can average a 12% or more gain per year for 7 consecutive years although we think we can something always comes up. Darn it , I'm going to be the exception to the rule.
----------billyjoe

[skiracer]

Dave,
From what I read almost no one can average a 12% or more gain per year for 7 consecutive years although we think we can something always comes up. Darn it , I'm going to be the exception to the rule.
----------billyjoe

Billyjoe,
I don't believe that statement about the 12% gain. I'm sure that I have averaged more than that over the last 7 years. And now that I'm trading ETF's on a regular basis for the last couple of years I think that it is even easier to do. The whole thing depends on cutting the loses off at or below 7%. If you can bring yourself to control that the largest part of the battle is won.

[IIC]

Billy...no offense...but 1% a month is not a very lofty goal.

Sure...you'll have down months, maybe even a few down months in a row...But 12% in a year isn't that tough IMO. In fact assuming you can only go long in your retirement account I'd say that if you only invest when the market is trending up (even if it is only a week or two) and stay out when it is trending down you should easily be able to get that and a lot more...Best, Doug

[New-born baby]

One thing I really enjoy is checking my retirement accounts to see how much increase I'd need to retire at a certain age. Currently to meet my goal in 7 years
I'd need to compound a 1% gain per month on average for 84 months. Is this crazy thinking ? Over the last 3 month period , I'm down about .7% per month, but have had recent quarters averaging gains of 11% , 7%, and 4.33% per month.

Mr. Market has averaged over 1.52 of a 16%+ gainer per month for 54 months and even subtracting the losers he's got to be way over 1% per month. I'm no Mr.Market but how realistic is it to get 1% per month ? This is assuming no new money added . Funds are in IRA's , SEP , 403b and in mutual funds , common stocks , and money markets . Quite diversified , but not all 100% controlled by me.

-------------billyjoe

BillyJoe,
You can make 1% per month with the Canroys. You can make 2.5% per month with covered calls (you'll probably have to roll them on occasion, but still . . . .). I would think a mutual fund, in the current market conditions for the next 12 months (re: bear market) would not be a good place to be. PTI securities would be a great place to be if you did not want to manage the put/calls yourself. They have averaged 20% per year for the last 10 years. They buy a stock, sell a call and buy a put, and their gains are pretty consistent. Because of the calls they do not have years where they make 100% , etc, but they always seem to make 20% per year. Call Tom at PTI Securities.