What do you think of MrM's system

[skiracer]

I really think the person you need to talk to is Websman.... He is the founder and chairman of the "Inner Circle" of the VTP. Now you say you wanna talk about a "system" of stock trading?.... You want to talk about the VTP with Webs. The VTP is HUUUUGE!!!!

Lye,
Turning him over to Webs might be putting him in a little to deep. Besides the inner circle takes years of enlightenment by the "goji" before one can even begin to contemplate those neural processes. Ray may be closing in on that levelas it takes a decent amount of volume and consumption to attain that height.

[jamiew]

Its okay I have no intention of joining the inner circle quite yet, I realise the level of trust and bonding must be very high indeed to get in.

I’m just trying to search this forum for the rules of MM system, (his home thread). I’ve come across it a few times before, but now I need it I can’t find it, any pointers?

[Rob]

Important Question

Jamie,

I'm a serious student of the market, and I appreciate what it is I think you're trying to do here. But I have one very important question: Can you dance like Lyehopper?

[Websman]

Seriously this Vulcan approach is exactly what I’m looking for. All too often people have systems and then they muck it all up by having emotions, and not doing what there system tells them. How am I supposed to model that!

EMOTIONS??? Vulcans DO NOT have emotions.

[jamiew]

EMOTIONS??? Vulcans DO NOT have emotions.

indeed, my point exactly.

Can anyone remember where the thread is that explains Mr Markets model.

edit- found it: http://members.aol.com/ebarsamian/

[jamiew]

An interesting fact i though you might be interested in, from the data presented by Ernie Barsamian the annual % profit is 205% (calculated) meaning £10,000 would grow into £6,466,431 in only 10 years. That’s impressive!

-edit, obviously these profits would only occur if trades were constantly being made.

I wonder if this system could be optimised so that trades could constantly be made, worth looking into.

[jiesen]

welcome, jamie! please stick around, as your data analysis skills could be of great benefit to this group.

[diogenes]

welcome, jamie! please stick around, as your data analysis skills could be of great benefit to this group.

Ditto that.

BTW- I am sure you noticed, but VTP is a bit of an inside joke here.

[diogenes]

indeed, my point exactly.

Can anyone remember where the thread is that explains Mr Markets model.

edit- found it: http://members.aol.com/ebarsamian/

While MrMarket has said in the past that his model has been backtested by Karl, I have never seen the results. However, Karl is away at the moment, so maybe we shall it soon?

[jamiew]

When I get a bit of spare time, aside from writing up a PhD, and designing ANN'S, Ill test this system out, in theory I should get the same if not similar top 5 results as MM, I’m just surprised that nobody else on here has done this.

(Although 3 screening processes do require membership, they don’t actually seem to be necessary to get the top 5 stocks... if I have read the system correctly)

Since the last step in picking the best out of 5 seems to rely on human justification, it would be interesting to see what would happen if we traded all 5.

Any way guess I should do some work, bye.

[jamiew]

While MrMarket has said in the past that his model has been backtested by Karl, I have never seen the results. However, Karl is away at the moment, so maybe we shall it soon?

ah ha, so somebody has back tested it, i would be quite keen on these results too.

[spikefader]

....since the last step in picking the best out of 5 seems to rely on human justification, it would be interesting to see what would happen if we traded all 5...

Welcome jamiew!

Very interesting comment. It would be interesting to see indeed.

I join the others in encouraging you to stick around and share your thoughts on "stuff".

[skiracer]

Jamiew,
I would like it if you would give us a little of your trading discipline and strategys. Just what is A1 ANN?

[Websman]

Ditto that.

BTW- I am sure you noticed, but VTP is a bit of an inside joke here.

What? Surely my eyes deceive me! You dare call the VTP a joke???

The VTP inner circle just lost a potential member...

[jamiew]

Well there are quite a few companies out there that either sell you the information that there AI has produced, or sell you some software to train a neural network.

But basically, training neural networks to find patterns, there’s also other approaches such as data mining and genetic algorithms. Neural networks are kind of a new tool and becoming more reliable, they are often used as other pattern recognition tools such as:

Radar systems, face identification, object recognition, voice recognition, handwritten text recognition, medical diagnosis, but if used correctly can identify trades that have good potential for positive feed back/rapid growth.

Usually these systems are used in combination with each other and before the information is applied to the ANN, filters and other trading techniques that are already know to work quite well are used.

Many in the past have found ANNs to be unreliable at predicting the stock market. However they did not reduce the noise of the samples (you wouldn’t pick a Rick Shaw stock would you) and they used no other predicting systems already know, these academics did not look deep enough into the trading side of there system.

So I’m aiming for a method that uses a combination of filtering systems, and a combination of modelling systems (like Mr M's) before being applied to the ANN

All that said, I wouldn’t be able to give you any reliable stock picks right now, unless you wanted it based just on the filtering method. I’m not really interested in that, I just want to prove that ANNs can be applied to the stock market.

My current filtering methods alone give a 180% annual increase (I think I calculate Mr Ms system at 205% so I’m quite interested in testing this)

However I have concentrated on a system that finds all the data with rapid increases, it also imports a lot of small losses

After Appling this type of data to the ANN I expect most of the small losses to be filtered out and to have an annual profit between 200 and 300%. Still it’s a working process so I’m afraid I’m not much use to you guys right now.

There are however, many ANN companies out there doing this right now. Have a search for neural network and stock market.

- edit, sorry I did not explain, ANN stands for artificial neural network ... a simulated brain if you like