Diogenes Decisions

Okay, finally spent some time to find the MAE and MAXFE of 30 Mr. Market trades using yahoo data. I think that this data introduced some noise into the formulas, e.g., RIO seemed off.
Time interval: day that Mr. M bought the stock up to and including when he sold.

This is what I found:

Avg %:
MAE = -16.676%
Maxfe=31.4327%

Median%:
MAE=-14.5755%
MAXFE=19.5271%


Idea:

I think it might be worthwhile to look into what happens if one waited for a Mr. Market pick to fall via the median % of 14.5755 and then entered the trade.

Tickers used:
ARLP
asca
bmhc
cfc
chke
cib
cme
cmn
cmtl
deck
dhi
dw
flir
ggb
ggi
hans
har
holx
ptsi
hzo
ipar
mcri
pdx
qsii
rio
safm
snhy
spf
urbn
wire
wsb

Currently looking for a long position in either cg or orb (stolen from Park).
Looking at the correlation between the two and the 10 year t-bill shows a strong correlation between cg at .969 and not so strong on orb at .4928.


While correlation does not imply causation it is still something to think about.

Any thoughts on the two?

Yes, that seems about right.

Of course if there are any sticklers for ancient greek out there, they would probably want a harsh “h” after the “au’” bit. However, who would really use that anyway?

For what it is worth my only open position at the moment is GW.
I have conflicting thoughts about this stock.
Since, it is a very small position relative to my small investment funds I have been letting it sit.
So, really the importance of being unimportant comes into play here.

Bought: More or less because I was really interested in the Fundamentals sometime last year, then poorman liked it, too.

I no longer follow the strategy that lead me to buy GW as it seemed best for a longer term holding than I am interested in.

[Lyehopper]

Diogenes, I'm glad to see you with your own thread. I'll be an avid reader.

btw.... What's the correct pronunciation of your handle?

Is it.... Di-au'-jen-eese?

diogenes,
I wonder if Cramer's disappearing returns can in any way be compared to the stocks first appearance in the IBD 100 ? I live near the headquarters of FUN and 2 of my kids work there. The fact that they are near a 52 week low and pay a div. of about 7.7% might not make them a good short. I'd have to agree with Cramer when he said "this ain't no six flags" (SIX)

---------------billyjoe

The IBD connection would be interesting to look into.
Anybody know of any studies on the correlation between stock price and listing on the IBD 100?

Regarding FUN : I have no doubt that the if the company is a solid one in the long run it will be fine. It is just the short term period which seems a bit more capricious in judging stocks.

[billyjoe]

diogenes,
I wonder if Cramer's disappearing returns can in any way be compared to the stocks first appearance in the IBD 100 ? I live near the headquarters of FUN and 2 of my kids work there. The fact that they are near a 52 week low and pay a div. of about 7.7% might not make them a good short. I'd have to agree with Cramer when he said "this ain't no six flags" (SIX)

---------------billyjoe

Thanks-I wondered how the title would work out.

Anyway, currently looking over potential shorts from Cramer following this paper:

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=870498

From the picks listed by billyjoe on the 20th that increased on last Friday and then looking at the stock scouter rating it looks like MTU and FUN might be the best to short

[mrmarket]

He mystifies and magnifies. He likes TA but also can pontificate on FA as well. Hear what Diogenes likes and dislikes, right here..right now....