CROX - how high might the one squeeze?

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  • mystiky
    Senior Member
    • Dec 2004
    • 333

    CROX - how high might the one squeeze?

    Well, just saw this in after hours on CROX today:

    "Crocs beats by $0.14, beats on revs; guides Q3 above consensus (29.00 +1.21) : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.39 per share, $0.14 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.25; revenues rose 231.8% year/year to $85.6 mln vs the $64.7 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $0.38-0.40 vs. $0.23 consensus; sees Q3 revs of $87.0-90.0 mln vs. $56.33 mln consensus. "Our second quarter results were much stronger than we anticipated due to increased demand for our footwear both domestically and overseas. Importantly, sales were driven by robust demand for our core product, as well as positive consumer reaction to our new styles, such as Athens, Off-Road and Scutes. At the same time, we drove improvements in operating leverage, which allowed us to generate a significant improvement in our bottom line".

    The stock went to as high as $36 in after hours. Closed around $31. That's still $2 above the regular market close of $29.

    But check this out: The float is 24 million shares, while the shorted shares is 6.4 million (about 28%) -- per Yahoo's information

    So, might this CROX revisit the $36 levels on a nice squeeze?

    Thanks everyone!

  • #2
    I like it and here is why. CROX has been running sideways for a good while building up the pressure cooker. It then begins to move out of the base. I’ll be keeping an eye out for a pullback.

    Comment

    • peanuts
      Senior Member
      • Feb 2006
      • 3365

      #3
      I like CROX right now. It is already a member of my MT portfolio
      Hide not your talents.
      They for use were made.
      What's a sundial in the shade?

      - Benjamin Franklin

      Comment

      • spikefader
        Senior Member
        • Apr 2004
        • 7175

        #4
        Originally posted by mystiky
        ...CROX today ..... as high as $36 in after hours. Closed around $31. ... So, might this CROX revisit the $36 levels on a nice squeeze? Thanks everyone!
        This looks like a nice candidate for a gap'ncrap or fade-the-spike near $37 resistance. Pretty good r/r for a 25% profit gap fill target up there tomorrow anyway.

        Comment

        • skiracer
          Senior Member
          • Dec 2004
          • 6314

          #5
          If you look at the 15 min. chart you'll see that CROX was basically range bound for the last few days and at the open this morning it drops .58 immediately but stops the drop right at support at $27.24. Could it be market makers taking it down in front of AH earnings report. But there were alot of traders or hedge funds out there that liked their prospects because the stock traded 3.2 million shares today while average daily volume is around 600,000. All of a sudden after days of nothing on the day earnings are to be reported it goes up 1.29 on over 3 mil. shares before they even report. To much of a coincidence for me not to think that someone knew something about that report. Anyway AH another block of 1.5 mil. shares goes off at $31.10 which is 2+ points above the closing price. That report and next qtrs. guidance was way way above concensus. What do you think it will open at in the morning? I think it opens at $32 or more and goes on a tear to at least $34. Looking at the daily there were alot of sharp traders, I wasn't one of them, that had their eyes on this one as it made it's way up the right side of that cup. It isn't finished yet and that high of $37 is easily doable in my opinion. There will be consolidations to a degree along the way but with this earnings report under it's belt and every chick on the planet wanting a pair or two of their clogs in their closet this stock will definitely move up. This should provide some decent swing trades if you can pick the peaks and valleys between here and probably $40 or so.
          THE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR

          Comment

          • mystiky
            Senior Member
            • Dec 2004
            • 333

            #6
            Originally posted by skiracer
            If you look at the 15 min. chart you'll see that CROX was basically range bound for the last few days and at the open this morning it drops .58 immediately but stops the drop right at support at $27.24. Could it be market makers taking it down in front of AH earnings report. But there were alot of traders or hedge funds out there that liked their prospects because the stock traded 3.2 million shares today while average daily volume is around 600,000. All of a sudden after days of nothing on the day earnings are to be reported it goes up 1.29 on over 3 mil. shares before they even report. To much of a coincidence for me not to think that someone knew something about that report. Anyway AH another block of 1.5 mil. shares goes off at $31.10 which is 2+ points above the closing price. That report and next qtrs. guidance was way way above concensus. What do you think it will open at in the morning? I think it opens at $32 or more and goes on a tear to at least $34. Looking at the daily there were alot of sharp traders, I wasn't one of them, that had their eyes on this one as it made it's way up the right side of that cup. It isn't finished yet and that high of $37 is easily doable in my opinion. There will be consolidations to a degree along the way but with this earnings report under it's belt and every chick on the planet wanting a pair or two of their clogs in their closet this stock will definitely move up. This should provide some decent swing trades if you can pick the peaks and valleys between here and probably $40 or so.
            Well, the institutions are holding CROX down as much as they can. I guess there will be a secondary coming very soon, and those guys will use those shares to cover their shorts from $30+.

            If CROX pulls the secondary, this is a $40 stock based on the short position and the incredible guidance.

            I am just a watcher right now.
            Last edited by mystiky; 08-04-2006, 11:31 AM.

            Comment

            • mystiky
              Senior Member
              • Dec 2004
              • 333

              #7
              so, how much damage done to CROX after today?

              The day is finally over. 5.6 million shares traded and it closed DOWN 1.59.

              Might a good buying point be around 26.20?

              Comment


              • #8
                CROX is removed off my swing list. I don’t like this huge wide range bar.

                Comment

                • Lyehopper
                  Senior Member
                  • Jan 2004
                  • 3678

                  #9
                  Does anyone here still follow/trade CROX?.... I kinda like it right here myself.

                  BEEF!... it's whats for dinner!

                  Comment

                  • skiracer
                    Senior Member
                    • Dec 2004
                    • 6314

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Lyehopper View Post
                    Does anyone here still follow/trade CROX?.... I kinda like it right here myself.

                    http://shop.crocs.com
                    I like the daily chart. I would wait for the corrective c wave to finish right here and look for an entry off of a c wave completion and the ensuing spike up into the 1st wave. I checked out MSN Money for institutional accumulation and it has been very high of late but the insiders have been selling with regularity over the last couple of months. I would keep an eye on it for a lower entry which I think you will get first before another nice move up. You might want to check out the option chain for the May 60 call. There might be a play there. My feelings are that the stock moves towards 60 after a correction of sorts.
                    THE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR

                    Comment

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