Peanut's Potent Plethora of Profit

[IIC]

Skiracer told me that you've always wanted to be like me....SsSsSssss!

So my crystal ball was right again...lol

[peanuts]

I like gna over todays high..

It's a fundamental "steal" at $10

[peanuts]

Skiracer told me that you've always wanted to be like me....SsSsSssss!

I even want to look like you, Lye. But I would buy Kubotas

[peanuts]

taking shots at Smith and Wesson

It took long enough, but SWHC finally took a dump. I've been short a few hundred shares since $13.65. Looking MT for $11 to trim, then $9.50 to close, and I just moved my stop to $13.75.

I have to keep this position in my ST portfolio because my MT portfolio is not a margin account.

[spikefader]

Yeah, Spike, that earnings report really threw a monkey wrench into my plan. The TGE position will remain. I have also held TIII all the way down to a 30% loss, and did not sell. Just last week, it made it all the back to my entry. The thing with these MOMO plays is that I buy them at a fundamental valuation that I feel is fair. The crazy market can price equities all over the spectrum, but I find that fundamental values are usually within reach, and the probability of a stock trading too far away from its fundamental value is slim to none on the MOMO plays I make. TGE is fundamentally sound, and for the MOMO plays, that is what matters most.

Regarding the risk I am taking... the way that I look at it, all my MOMO portfolio is actually like free money. I can explain it, but it takes some time. Basically, I've been able to use the MOMO portfolio to fund my other portfolios. Once I reach a certain $ level, I withdraw a certain percentage (20%) and switch the funds to another account, then start again with the same principal in the MOMO account. The risk is minimal if you consider my total portfolio of all holdings. Basically, were looking at a position that is approx 2-3% of my total portfolio with a fundamentally sound company. I hate the current price, but I'm not scared that this company is going to fail or anything...

btw: speaking of my MOMO port, you may want to check out the TA on USLM... seems to me like it wants to pop.

Sounds like ya got a game plan there peanuts. If the numbers work for ya, then excellent. Good luck with it. But just quietly.....lol....(it's always something isn't it?)....hehe....

But just quietly........there's no such thing as free money. The logic might only tempt one to take excessive risk, and it's the type of justification that blinds one for the trip to zero. Free money is YOUR money.....you WORKED for it.........don't give it away with loose rules. If zero for TGE is acceptable risk for ya, then no problemo.

But the TA for TGE is woeful and no way I'd hold it. There are so many better charts out there. And if 6.35 fails, that event only strengthens my bias short. A daily close under 6.50 is another nail in the coffin'.

BEL was the type of stock that pulled in the FA money.......but look at the monthly chart of that one.....TGE at risk of doing that type of move at this stage. Imagine in your mind that it does do that, would you have regret in hindsight? Would you make a protective rule? Just askin'...

Thanks for USLM tip....at this stage, not liking it while it's below 31.83. But I'll watch it a while.

Good luck!

[peanuts]

MOMO portfolio getting killed

Sounds like ya got a game plan there peanuts. If the numbers work for ya, then excellent. Good luck with it. But just quietly.....lol....(it's always something isn't it?)....hehe....

But just quietly........there's no such thing as free money. The logic might only tempt one to take excessive risk, and it's the type of justification that blinds one for the trip to zero. Free money is YOUR money.....you WORKED for it.........don't give it away with loose rules. If zero for TGE is acceptable risk for ya, then no problemo.

But the TA for TGE is woeful and no way I'd hold it. There are so many better charts out there. And if 6.35 fails, that event only strengthens my bias short. A daily close under 6.50 is another nail in the coffin'...

Good luck!

Everybody point and laugh at peanuts. hehehe!

TGE is really turning out to be a stinker. I mean, WOW! - down nearly $2 from my entry at $9.40. I'm terrible at this stock picking stuff

This model has been working for me for 2 years, now. Current results are by far the worst they have ever been. Not sure if it's me, the screen, or the market...

I've been contemplating the day that the screen no longer works. At that point, I sell them all, and start anew... working with the right breakout / momentum parameters for the current market environment.

It's losses like these that actually give me the best education. I've heard others refer to this as "market tuition" and I think that is a perfect term. Sometimes that education costs money. It is important to learn equally from any mistakes that we make and the successes we have.

side note: AOS is not being nice to me, either

[IIC]

Everybody point and laugh at peanuts. hehehe!

TGE is really turning out to be a stinker. I mean, WOW! - down nearly $2 from my entry at $9.40. I'm terrible at this stock picking stuff

This model has been working for me for 2 years, now. Current results are by far the worst they have ever been. Not sure if it's me, the screen, or the market...

I've been contemplating the day that the screen no longer works. At that point, I sell them all, and start anew... working with the right breakout / momentum parameters for the current market environment.

It's losses like these that actually give me the best education. I've heard others refer to this as "market tuition" and I think that is a perfect term. Sometimes that education costs money. It is important to learn equally from any mistakes that we make and the successes we have.

side note: AOS is not being nice to me, either

MoMo stocks are not doing well so far...IBD Top 10 is 1/9...IIC Top 10 is 5/5

[spikefader]

It took long enough, but SWHC finally took a dump. I've been short a few hundred shares since $13.65. Looking MT for $11 to trim, then $9.50 to close, and I just moved my stop to $13.75.

I have to keep this position in my ST portfolio because my MT portfolio is not a margin account.

Yep, been watchin' SWHC closely. A fine call on your part, Mr.Peanuts.

[spikefader]

....It's losses like these that actually give me the best education. I've heard others refer to this as "market tuition" and I think that is a perfect term. Sometimes that education costs money. It is important to learn equally from any mistakes that we make and the successes we have...

Yep.. it's a likely fact that true wisdom and appreciation for market forces comes only from experiencing the pain associated with losses. Winners have more chance of reinforcing bad behavior. And even when we've learnt from the losses, the hardest part of all is actually changing our stubborn or foolish ways. We must leverage the pain and actually change our future behavior in a complete and disciplined fashion.........not only system parameters, but ourselves.....to the point of transforming into something that is actually foreign to human nature.....vulcan-like.....

....and in the end, failure turns out to be just another stepping stone to success.........as long as we don't step off the path.......for it forever winding ........ and we must be quick to adjust our next footstep to find solid ground. One distraction and to the depths one may fall.....

[peanuts]

Here are the results this week 10/23 open to 10/27 close

CLDN--19.35-18.51-- -4.34%
FCX---56.00-59.05-- +5.45
STLD--58.12-61.18-- +5.26
ALB---62.00-63.06-- +1.71
AME---46.20-46.96--+1.65
CPSS---6.59--7.13---+8.19
GSBC--30.38-31.17---+2.60
PH----81.01-82.53---+1.88
RLI---53.45-54.54----+2.04
RS---34.12--34.23----+.32
UNP--90.83-90.86----+.03
USAP--29.90-29.80-- -.33
AP----33.75-34.33----+1.72

-----------------billyjoe

Disclosure: I don't own any of them.....$#@%it !

Hey Billyjoe, Are you still tracking these, dude?

[billyjoe]

Hey Billyjoe, Are you still tracking these, dude?

Peanuts,
Yes, will post results tomorrow.

-----------billyjoe

[Lyehopper]

Short sell Q.... showing SHS top.

Hey Peanuts.... Remember when you were hot on Q (September I think)? I posted that it might set up as a good short trade soon (with a nice short gap target @ $7.01).... Well I think it is setting up now with a pretty well formed SHS top with increased volume on the down side of that right shoulder.

[Tatnic]

Hi Lye,

I'll keep an eye on it for you. Do you track the PSI? It will tell you the direction of all the steel companies. Being that you are directly involved in the industry, I thought you would certainly be one of the people to have used the PSI to your advantage.

ok...I'll bite. What's the PSI and where does one find it?

this from X's conference call, copied from a friend of mine who listened to it:

"May shutter 3 or 4 plants. On its conference call, co says that
inventories at its service center customers are high, reflecting the
high level of imports. However, imports have been trending down in Aug
and Sept after peaking in July. Co hopes that trend continues. Since
inventories are high, the co says it is reducing production of steel.
Co expects spot prices for steel to moderate somewhat in Q4."

Not saying its time to short yet, I haven't been watching closely enough. But if consolidation is still going on then maybe shorting an index or etf (if there are any) is the way to go. I still haven't found any steel indexes with options, yet that is.

[Tatnic]

Yep.. it's a likely fact that true wisdom and appreciation for market forces comes only from experiencing the pain associated with losses. Winners have more chance of reinforcing bad behavior. And even when we've learnt from the losses, the hardest part of all is actually changing our stubborn or foolish ways. We must leverage the pain and actually change our future behavior in a complete and disciplined fashion.........not only system parameters, but ourselves.....to the point of transforming into something that is actually foreign to human nature.....vulcan-like.....

....and in the end, failure turns out to be just another stepping stone to success.........as long as we don't step off the path.......for it forever winding ........ and we must be quick to adjust our next footstep to find solid ground. One distraction and to the depths one may fall.....

Spike...I can't help but notice your parabolic picks link below this eloquent post? Doesn't that negate everything you just said? I do find a thread of wisdom to your post but somehow I don't think that you and the other momo traders understand that buying breakouts and high prices only works during a very limited time of the markets. I've been doing this much longer than you guys and have the scars to show for it. Back in the late 90's you could take any highschool kid with no market knowledge and he'd be a genius picking stocks..it was all luck because the market was so over-loved.

Staying in the market long term involves adapting and evolution. Some simple truths (these are not directed at you Spike, just my thoughts):

1. the shorter your time frame, the more precise your timing needs to be. And very few can get their timing pefect on a short-term basis with any consistency.

2. If you constantly buy only what the market loves, you will end up losing.

3. If you feel bad about a trade, get the hell out. YOur timing was off as usual.

4. Trade small...if you try to make a killing you'll get killed.

5. Buy when stocks are on sale and sell them when everyone loves them.

6. Buy some bonds or reits to balance out your stocks. Bonds often move in opposite directions as stocks, and reits have been excellent investments over time and are great for ira's.

7. Have a longer term perspective. If you can't beat the index averages on a consistent, long-term basis then don't bother trying to trade on a short-term basis....buy an index mutual fund, forget about it and then get on with your life.

8. 95%~99% of the people on the internet who hang out in these types of places will never make any real, consistent money trading stocks. They do it because its exciting. If they tell you otherwise, they're not being honest with themselves.

9. Those who are searching for the holy grail of trading just don't get it. Its like searching for the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. A very few find that pot but most just keep looking in vain.

[peanuts]

ok...I'll bite. What's the PSI and where does one find it?

Right HERE

The PSI is the "Peanuts Steel Index" jejejeje It is a compilation of the publicly traded companies which are directly affected by the health and direction of the steel industry. Most are producers of iron ore, or steel. Few are processors, and even fewer are suppliers.

I have all the opening prices for the year for all of these (or, in the case of KYCN.ob, I have the price at which it first traded) and to this date, the PSI is up a combined gain of 32.17% since Jan 3, 2006. Let me know if you want the prices in order to track these as well.