Peanut's Potent Plethora of Profit

[peanuts]

3 metal arbitrage opportunities













It looks like there are only 2 good opportunities to make a profitable trade:
short GOLD, long SILVER
short GOLD, long COPPER

Regardless of whichever you choose, the trade is turned off when the ratio become more in line with the far left of the comparison charts. Alternatively, a moving average could be used to compensate for trending ratios.

If the first trade method is used, the math shows approx. 28.57% potential return, regardless of the opportunity that you choose. Employing a moving average as the trigger for closing the trade would lessen the potential profit, but also add some accounting for the trend.

Theoretically, either trade can be made on futures contracts. Most do not have access to this trading. So, practically speaking this limits the trade to short GOLD, long SILVER. There is no ETF for COPPER. However, you can short GLD and buy SLV.

[peanuts]

where's the money going to?

http://business.smh.com.au/business/soros-hedge-funds-buy-into-marengo-20090901-f6ze.html

George Soros likes copper going into 2013!

[billyjoe]

Peanuts,
Another 1000 today. Copper, 26%. Wheat ears 5. Also find dimes mixed in quite often. If I buy a scale to determine copper from zinc, there goes my meager profits. Any amateur chemists out there? I'm sure someone knows a simple method of determining copper plating from near solid copper. Maybe spray with a weak acid solution?

---------------billy

[peanuts]

Peanuts,
Good question about the 1982 pennies. I've got several hundred set aside until I can tell for sure. Statistically only .166 of them will be zinc. They say you can tell by the sound of their "ring" when dropped on a hard surface but that's not too reliable. Some you can tell just by looking, a stronger strike, a certain texture.
Last batch of 2000-- 28.8% copper. The 1982's aren't counted in the total.

---------------billy

I guess that if you're tone deaf, you can get one of the digital scales. I read that the zinc pennies weigh 2.5 grams, and the copper pennies weigh 3.1 grams.

How about that copper price!!! It doesn't have too far to go now to get back over $3. That still won't be the high though. I wonder when we'll see $10 copper?

[billyjoe]

Keep on sorting, Billy. You'll be up to a ton of copper in no time for a fraction of the actual cost. How do you determine whether a 1982 penny is copper or zinc?

With silver going up, I doubt you'll have many takers at your $8 x face Craigslist price. I think it is worth somewhere around $10.80 x face.

I hear more and more blab about commodities from the talking heads... might be time for a pullback.

Peanuts,
Good question about the 1982 pennies. I've got several hundred set aside until I can tell for sure. Statistically only .166 of them will be zinc. They say you can tell by the sound of their "ring" when dropped on a hard surface but that's not too reliable. Some you can tell just by looking, a stronger strike, a certain texture.
Last batch of 2000-- 28.8% copper. The 1982's aren't counted in the total.

---------------billy

[peanuts]

Peanuts,

Last 1000 pennies 33.9% copper. Workin' on another batch update later today.

--------------billy

Keep on sorting, Billy. You'll be up to a ton of copper in no time for a fraction of the actual cost. How do you determine whether a 1982 penny is copper or zinc?

With silver going up, I doubt you'll have many takers at your $8 x face Craigslist price. I think it is worth somewhere around $10.80 x face.

I hear more and more blab about commodities from the talking heads... might be time for a pullback.

[billyjoe]

Peanuts,

Last 1000 pennies 33.9% copper. Workin' on another batch update later today.

--------------billy

[billyjoe]

Peanuts,
I've got lots of rolls of copper pennies upstairs. Ceiling still not showing any cracks. So now my 50 cent rolls are worth around 86 cents. Percentages of copper pennies seems to be dropping. Was 30% a month or 2 ago, now maybe 25%. Haven't been able to attract many sellers of silver at my 8X face value offer. Only got $21 of silver.

--------------billy

[peanuts]

Dr. Copper heals the economy again!

The price of copper has statistically indicated the expansion of business activity.

In the month of March, the price of Copper was up 18%. The stockpile, as recorded by LME, began to decline.

I'm also interested in the bulk dry shipping index... anyone follow these?

Please give this some attention folks. Trading is great for the short term. What about long term outlook and forecasting? Is it a trap, or a way to help you prepare.

I found this interesting article related to both copper and the Baltic Dry Index

What are your thoughts on the upcoming economic conditions of the US? Is this recent activity only applicable to China?

I hope that I'm not wasting my time asking all of you who read this.

POSTED APRIL 9, 2009:...

In April copper was up another 14%, and in May another 4.2%

Is ANYONE here really using their thinking caps? Or am I fooling myself that I might be helping at least one person?

June, copper up 5.7%

Since February, copper is up from $1.54 to $2.30 per pound in June. That's a nice move of 49.35% You could have made a pretty penny from this...

July closing price of copper is $2.60, up 13.18%!!!

$1.54 per pound in February to $2.60 in July is a HUUUUGE move. A copper penny minted before 1982 is worth 1.72 cents in copper value...

[peanuts]

(Today's price is underlined, gain is green, loss is red)

ITWO, $12.59 $13.17 4.6%
EPR, $22.13 $25.90 17.04%
DVR, $8.63 $9.10 5.45%
TRK, $14.16 $15.59 10.10%
GLF, $27.63 $31.64 14.51%
MATK, $22.10 $23.46 6.15%
IIVI, $20.82 $22.45 10.63%
HRBN, $16.27 $17.89 9.96%

SHORTS:
SWI, $16.90 $19.17 13.43%
FOLD, $10.79 $10.70 0.83%
JOE, $25.63 $27.85 8.67%
ITMN, $14.28 $15.91 11.41%

I guess these might have been good... surprised there were no comments

[peanuts]

These are from a screen for bullish stocks:
ITWO, $12.59
EPR, $22.13
DVR, $8.63
TRK, $14.16
GLF, $27.63
MATK, $22.10
IIVI, $20.82
HRBN, $16.27

These turned out to show pretty good results... will the bull last?

[peanuts]

stocks:

Some of these are not for the faint of heart, but there might be some real goodies in here. They are in no particular order.

These are from a screen for bullish stocks:
ITWO, $12.59
EPR, $22.13
DVR, $8.63
TRK, $14.16
GLF, $27.63
MATK, $22.10
IIVI, $20.82
HRBN, $16.27

These are from a screen for bearish stocks:
SWI, $16.90
FOLD, $10.79
JOE, $25.63
ITMN, $14.28

Check them out and let me know what you think. I'm kinda leaning towards long DVR, GLF, and IIVI, and short FOLD and ITMN

[peanuts]

money in the bank

Yes, I am currently long the SLV at $12.70 entry today. I'm in to make a few bucks and I'll get out when I've met my target, or I no longer like the trade. Fundamentally, I cannot either refute or confirm that the ETF actually has real silver... but you get to see yours all the time. That makes all the difference!

Target of $13.30 met, and I'm out for now... few bucks made and banked! GLD, SLV, and AGQ are just trading vehicles, not long term buy and holds.

[peanuts]

it always boils down to this peanuts. those that own it and those that dont. those that dont will provide any rationalization necessary to get it cheaper than what it is worth and selling at on the open market. those that own it free and clear and have possession of it right now can do what they want. those that dont own it and want it can only bargain for it with those that own it. take a look at either the daily or the weekly charts. would you buy the silver eft on either one of them. i shouldnt ask you that question because you did today. and to be honest i think im out of line asking for top dollar in light of either one of those charts. but the fact remains that i own it free and clear and have plenty of it in my possession

You are absolutely right. Those who have it can ask any price to those who want it. But there are other players out there that might for ask a lower price than another... and that's what makes any free market.

Some numismatic coins, like that high relief St Gaudens that you referred to earlier, cost way more than the gold contained in them. It's just a supply and demand sort of thing. Highly sought after dates and mints get better prices because the supply is limited. The demand for common date and thoroughly worn coins meets the supply, so the only thing that can be relied on for the value of them is the comex price of silver. In essence these types of coins are just easily recognizable forms of scrap metal.

Yes, I am currently long the SLV at $12.70 entry today. I'm in to make a few bucks and I'll get out when I've met my target, or I no longer like the trade. Fundamentally, I cannot either refute or confirm that the ETF actually has real silver... but you get to see yours all the time. That makes all the difference!

[skiracer]

I buy and sell SLV for a trade all the time. I buy and sell AGQ. Sometimes I even hedge by selling covered calls on them. There are times when I have no position in either, like for the last few weeks. It's only good for a quick in and out.

As a long term hold, SLV looks like trouble. I just don't trust that the ETF actually holds the amount of silver that they say they do. For example, they recently reported a jump in inventory of more ounces of silver than what was recorded as delivered silver at the comex... now where did that silver come from? I have read an article, and I'll try to find it, that speculates that this magical silver position isn't actually held by them, but is actually silver that is in old equipment that was used in the nuclear fuel / weapons program from the 50's and 60's... the equipment presumedly used tons of silver for electrical contacts, and is no longer in use.

So until those books are auditted and the silver is physically counted, I don't trust the ETF for a long term hold. Also, if you can't hold it, do you really own it?

coinflation.com is one of the best sources that I've found to calculate the actual value, based on silver content, of the coin. Use this to determine what prices should be paid to acquire any coins. Anything above the listed price is a premium. It automatically calculates the value by adjusting in accordance to the comex spot price of silver.

it always boils down to this peanuts. those that own it and those that dont. those that dont will provide any rationalization necessary to get it cheaper than what it is worth and selling at on the open market. those that own it free and clear and have possession of it right now can do what they want. those that dont own it and want it can only bargain for it with those that own it. take a look at either the daily or the weekly charts. would you buy the silver eft on either one of them. i shouldnt ask you that question because you did today. and to be honest i think im out of line asking for top dollar in light of either one of those charts. but the fact remains that i own it free and clear and have plenty of it in my possession