Peanut's Potent Plethora of Profit

[billyjoe]

Peanuts,
If I want to invest in silver but not pay a premium to the coin dealer would SLV be my best bet ?

--------------billy

[peanuts]

Peanuts,
If I want to invest in silver but not pay a premium to the coin dealer would SLV be my best bet ?

--------------billy

Premiums are inevitable. There are transaction costs no matter what you are buying. I would just suggest that you buy on quality. Some people say that the SLV issues more paper than what they actually have in silver, so the quality isn't as good as taking physical possession.

I think there is a precious metal tax in Ohio... take a drive over to PA where we enjoy zero tax. Deal in cash and large quantities so that you have some room to negotiate the premium. Most that I have found throughout the Pittsburgh area have a 10% over spot premium to buy, and a discount to spot of 5 to 10%. So if you buy silver when spot is at $14, the price needs to go to about $16.50 just for you to break even at the same dealer. One dealer in downtown Pittsburgh will buy name brand silver at spot price.

If you buy the SLV, then you have commission fees, and then 30% tax on any profits. And there is no guarantee that the silver is actually there. They refuse to let a 3rd party audit their books.

Also, AGQ is the double ETF of SLV

[billyjoe]

Peanuts,
It sounds as if you're discouraging me from buying SLV but you just bought some yourself , right? It's in an IRA so they'll get me taxed eventually or I could buy it with me son's Roth and no tax. I like silver below 13 but I'd also say that below 12, 11, 10, 9 etc. I value your opinion.

-------------billy

[skiracer]

Peanuts,
It sounds as if you're discouraging me from buying SLV but you just bought some yourself , right? It's in an IRA so they'll get me taxed eventually or I could buy it with me son's Roth and no tax. I like silver below 13 but I'd also say that below 12, 11, 10, 9 etc. I value your opinion.

-------------billy

billy,
i have 75.00 worth of silver quarters that you can buy for an even $1000 no premium or tax or anything except cash.

[peanuts]

Peanuts,
It sounds as if you're discouraging me from buying SLV but you just bought some yourself , right? It's in an IRA so they'll get me taxed eventually or I could buy it with me son's Roth and no tax. I like silver below 13 but I'd also say that below 12, 11, 10, 9 etc. I value your opinion.

-------------billy

I buy and sell SLV for a trade all the time. I buy and sell AGQ. Sometimes I even hedge by selling covered calls on them. There are times when I have no position in either, like for the last few weeks. It's only good for a quick in and out.

As a long term hold, SLV looks like trouble. I just don't trust that the ETF actually holds the amount of silver that they say they do. For example, they recently reported a jump in inventory of more ounces of silver than what was recorded as delivered silver at the comex... now where did that silver come from? I have read an article, and I'll try to find it, that speculates that this magical silver position isn't actually held by them, but is actually silver that is in old equipment that was used in the nuclear fuel / weapons program from the 50's and 60's... the equipment presumedly used tons of silver for electrical contacts, and is no longer in use.

So until those books are auditted and the silver is physically counted, I don't trust the ETF for a long term hold. Also, if you can't hold it, do you really own it?

coinflation.com is one of the best sources that I've found to calculate the actual value, based on silver content, of the coin. Use this to determine what prices should be paid to acquire any coins. Anything above the listed price is a premium. It automatically calculates the value by adjusting in accordance to the comex spot price of silver.

[skiracer]

I buy and sell SLV for a trade all the time. I buy and sell AGQ. Sometimes I even hedge by selling covered calls on them. There are times when I have no position in either, like for the last few weeks. It's only good for a quick in and out.

As a long term hold, SLV looks like trouble. I just don't trust that the ETF actually holds the amount of silver that they say they do. For example, they recently reported a jump in inventory of more ounces of silver than what was recorded as delivered silver at the comex... now where did that silver come from? I have read an article, and I'll try to find it, that speculates that this magical silver position isn't actually held by them, but is actually silver that is in old equipment that was used in the nuclear fuel / weapons program from the 50's and 60's... the equipment presumedly used tons of silver for electrical contacts, and is no longer in use.

So until those books are auditted and the silver is physically counted, I don't trust the ETF for a long term hold. Also, if you can't hold it, do you really own it?

coinflation.com is one of the best sources that I've found to calculate the actual value, based on silver content, of the coin. Use this to determine what prices should be paid to acquire any coins. Anything above the listed price is a premium. It automatically calculates the value by adjusting in accordance to the comex spot price of silver.

it always boils down to this peanuts. those that own it and those that dont. those that dont will provide any rationalization necessary to get it cheaper than what it is worth and selling at on the open market. those that own it free and clear and have possession of it right now can do what they want. those that dont own it and want it can only bargain for it with those that own it. take a look at either the daily or the weekly charts. would you buy the silver eft on either one of them. i shouldnt ask you that question because you did today. and to be honest i think im out of line asking for top dollar in light of either one of those charts. but the fact remains that i own it free and clear and have plenty of it in my possession

[peanuts]

it always boils down to this peanuts. those that own it and those that dont. those that dont will provide any rationalization necessary to get it cheaper than what it is worth and selling at on the open market. those that own it free and clear and have possession of it right now can do what they want. those that dont own it and want it can only bargain for it with those that own it. take a look at either the daily or the weekly charts. would you buy the silver eft on either one of them. i shouldnt ask you that question because you did today. and to be honest i think im out of line asking for top dollar in light of either one of those charts. but the fact remains that i own it free and clear and have plenty of it in my possession

You are absolutely right. Those who have it can ask any price to those who want it. But there are other players out there that might for ask a lower price than another... and that's what makes any free market.

Some numismatic coins, like that high relief St Gaudens that you referred to earlier, cost way more than the gold contained in them. It's just a supply and demand sort of thing. Highly sought after dates and mints get better prices because the supply is limited. The demand for common date and thoroughly worn coins meets the supply, so the only thing that can be relied on for the value of them is the comex price of silver. In essence these types of coins are just easily recognizable forms of scrap metal.

Yes, I am currently long the SLV at $12.70 entry today. I'm in to make a few bucks and I'll get out when I've met my target, or I no longer like the trade. Fundamentally, I cannot either refute or confirm that the ETF actually has real silver... but you get to see yours all the time. That makes all the difference!

[peanuts]

money in the bank

Yes, I am currently long the SLV at $12.70 entry today. I'm in to make a few bucks and I'll get out when I've met my target, or I no longer like the trade. Fundamentally, I cannot either refute or confirm that the ETF actually has real silver... but you get to see yours all the time. That makes all the difference!

Target of $13.30 met, and I'm out for now... few bucks made and banked! GLD, SLV, and AGQ are just trading vehicles, not long term buy and holds.

[peanuts]

stocks:

Some of these are not for the faint of heart, but there might be some real goodies in here. They are in no particular order.

These are from a screen for bullish stocks:
ITWO, $12.59
EPR, $22.13
DVR, $8.63
TRK, $14.16
GLF, $27.63
MATK, $22.10
IIVI, $20.82
HRBN, $16.27

These are from a screen for bearish stocks:
SWI, $16.90
FOLD, $10.79
JOE, $25.63
ITMN, $14.28

Check them out and let me know what you think. I'm kinda leaning towards long DVR, GLF, and IIVI, and short FOLD and ITMN

[peanuts]

These are from a screen for bullish stocks:
ITWO, $12.59
EPR, $22.13
DVR, $8.63
TRK, $14.16
GLF, $27.63
MATK, $22.10
IIVI, $20.82
HRBN, $16.27

These turned out to show pretty good results... will the bull last?

[peanuts]

(Today's price is underlined, gain is green, loss is red)

ITWO, $12.59 $13.17 4.6%
EPR, $22.13 $25.90 17.04%
DVR, $8.63 $9.10 5.45%
TRK, $14.16 $15.59 10.10%
GLF, $27.63 $31.64 14.51%
MATK, $22.10 $23.46 6.15%
IIVI, $20.82 $22.45 10.63%
HRBN, $16.27 $17.89 9.96%

SHORTS:
SWI, $16.90 $19.17 13.43%
FOLD, $10.79 $10.70 0.83%
JOE, $25.63 $27.85 8.67%
ITMN, $14.28 $15.91 11.41%

I guess these might have been good... surprised there were no comments

[peanuts]

Dr. Copper heals the economy again!

The price of copper has statistically indicated the expansion of business activity.

In the month of March, the price of Copper was up 18%. The stockpile, as recorded by LME, began to decline.

I'm also interested in the bulk dry shipping index... anyone follow these?

Please give this some attention folks. Trading is great for the short term. What about long term outlook and forecasting? Is it a trap, or a way to help you prepare.

I found this interesting article related to both copper and the Baltic Dry Index

What are your thoughts on the upcoming economic conditions of the US? Is this recent activity only applicable to China?

I hope that I'm not wasting my time asking all of you who read this.

POSTED APRIL 9, 2009:...

In April copper was up another 14%, and in May another 4.2%

Is ANYONE here really using their thinking caps? Or am I fooling myself that I might be helping at least one person?

June, copper up 5.7%

Since February, copper is up from $1.54 to $2.30 per pound in June. That's a nice move of 49.35% You could have made a pretty penny from this...

July closing price of copper is $2.60, up 13.18%!!!

$1.54 per pound in February to $2.60 in July is a HUUUUGE move. A copper penny minted before 1982 is worth 1.72 cents in copper value...

[billyjoe]

Peanuts,
I've got lots of rolls of copper pennies upstairs. Ceiling still not showing any cracks. So now my 50 cent rolls are worth around 86 cents. Percentages of copper pennies seems to be dropping. Was 30% a month or 2 ago, now maybe 25%. Haven't been able to attract many sellers of silver at my 8X face value offer. Only got $21 of silver.

--------------billy

[billyjoe]

Peanuts,

Last 1000 pennies 33.9% copper. Workin' on another batch update later today.

--------------billy

[peanuts]

Peanuts,

Last 1000 pennies 33.9% copper. Workin' on another batch update later today.

--------------billy

Keep on sorting, Billy. You'll be up to a ton of copper in no time for a fraction of the actual cost. How do you determine whether a 1982 penny is copper or zinc?

With silver going up, I doubt you'll have many takers at your $8 x face Craigslist price. I think it is worth somewhere around $10.80 x face.

I hear more and more blab about commodities from the talking heads... might be time for a pullback.