MTEX ==> The Columbus Day Winner

[bsideindy]

Thanks jc4fun3 for you info on MTEX. Because of your postings I got a better idea of the nature of this company and stayed away. Wise move (at least today).

[casinoboy3]

in at 15.50. stupid move? we'll see...

[peanuts]

in at 15.50. stupid move? we'll see...

hey! nice pivot point buy!!!! Let's see if it works out for you.

[Gatorper]

MTEX being probed...

Texas Attorney General probing Mannatech

October 27, 2006 10:29:00 (ET)


SAN DIEGO (MarketWatch) -- The Texas Attorney General's office is investigating and has considered taking legal action against Mannatech, a fast-growing manufacturer of nutritional supplements, whose stock has been one of the year's sizzlers.

[mrmarket]

Texas Attorney General probing Mannatech

October 27, 2006 10:29:00 (ET)


SAN DIEGO (MarketWatch) -- The Texas Attorney General's office is investigating and has considered taking legal action against Mannatech, a fast-growing manufacturer of nutritional supplements, whose stock has been one of the year's sizzlers.

Hey..if people want to buy snake oil, let em buy it!

[alice4321us]

Mannatech Issues Statement

COPPELL, TX, Oct 30, 2006 (MARKET WIRE via COMTEX) --
MTEX today announced that the company had not been contacted by the Texas Attorney General's office regarding any investigations, in response to reports published on Friday, October 27, 2006. Mannatech stated that it is committed to continuing to work with any and all regulatory agencies that have an interest in the Company or its products. The Company believes that its compliance programs are taken very seriously by its employees and its associates and are a pivotal aspect of its continued success.

[Tatnic]

I believe your chart says it all. Buy at the 200 day, not here. If the fundamentals haven't changed and Andrew Left hasn't focused on the company (or someone like him), then why not buy it when its on sale?

BTW...I have a couple of hunting buddies who drank the koolaid and sell this stuff. They are seemily intelligent guys but they actually believe the bs about "soil depletion" and how the stuff they peddle is the only thing that can replace those lost minerals and nutrients. ONe of them also claims that his little bout of impotence was cured by this miracle substance.

My understanding of the company is that its a classic pyramid scheme along the lines of avon, amway, etc. Nothing illegal about it but the company does push the envelope as witnessed by those court cases. And one could argue that wall street is nothing but a huge pyramid scheme and that the company has a great business model, ie they don't have to hire salesmen to push their snake oil. And we all know how well crap sells in this country with the right marketing.

Bottom line, the stock may do fine in the short-term (heck, in the longer term who knows?)

ps..its manna bars, not bears. The manna bears haven't shown up in numbers yet, but you don't want to be left holding the bag when Left does a little piece on this one.

I stand corrected, the bears have shown up.

[casinoboy3]

"An Oct. 24 memorandum in response to a public information request says the state's top cop has "anticipated filing suit against Mannatech" for a number of alleged violations.

The public information request was filed by someone who has sold short Mannatech's shares."

It's that last sentence that I found interesting. Of course someone who sold short MTEX wants to bring out bad news so the stock will drop. Is manipulating the stock like that legal? Maybe I'm misinterpreting.

This appears to be nothing new and I don't know if it's legit (i.e. to believe whether a suit will actually be filing- it's only "anticipation" at this point). Of course, the stock may drop and continue to do so, regardless of whether any of these allegations are legit.

[New-born baby]

The chart

I do not read the news or balance sheets. I simply read the charts.
Below is the current read on MTEX (my view, of course). When MTEX came out in the top five, I said it was like the other charts in the five: a cup formation that will either make a handle and explode higher, or a double top and pull back. (Read about it here: http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...ostcount=3345). MTEX has done the latter. The recent precipitous fall was stopped at the $15 major support line. Yesterday's bounce was no surprise as a lot people were buying support. (Smart). They will have a stop loss at $14.90 or so. IF***IF that $15 line can hold--great. But should it break we are looking at $10-$11 again. Note the 200 week avg. that has acted as support in the last year. This thing could make another bear flag and fall down to the 200 week avg, at which time it would be another buying opportunity. I should also say that MTEX's 200 day avg is currently $15, so the bulls were stepping forward here.

My personal view is that MTEX will fall down to $10-$11 because the fall from $18 to $15 happened in one day. That usually means that another $3+ is coming off in the next 20 days or less. Look at the chart: it had a fall like this in May/June, and it was a great buying opportunity. It may make a double bottom here at $10.91, and a person could make 115%.

[Tatnic]

I do not read the news or balance sheets. I simply read the charts.
Below is the current read on MTEX (my view, of course). When MTEX came out in the top five, I said it was like the other charts in the five: a cup formation that will either make a handle and explode higher, or a double top and pull back.

Note the 200 week avg. that has acted as support in the last year. This thing could make another bear flag and fall down to the 200 week avg, at which time it would be another buying opportunity. I should also say that MTEX's 200 day avg is currently $15, so the bulls were stepping forward here.

My personal view is that MTEX will fall down to $10-$11 because the fall from $18 to $15 happened in one day. That usually means that another $3+ is coming off in the next 20 days or less. Look at the chart: it had a fall like this in May/June, and it was a great buying opportunity. It may make a double bottom here at $10.91, and a person could make 115%.

so...did you trust your charts enough to take a position? I think any bounce here should be sold/shorted, but that doesn't mean the stock will immediately collapse either.

There's nothing fundamentally wrong with the company if one just looks at their numbers, but it helps to understand what it is that they do and they're time on the planet is limited IMO. All garbage must come to an end. Add IIG to that category...keep in mind that they have a conference call coming up soon and if history is any guide, that day is the day to go short. Nice run up over the past months to really set up that short.

[Tatnic]

"An Oct. 24 memorandum in response to a public information request says the state's top cop has "anticipated filing suit against Mannatech" for a number of alleged violations.

The public information request was filed by someone who has sold short Mannatech's shares."

It's that last sentence that I found interesting. Of course someone who sold short MTEX wants to bring out bad news so the stock will drop. Is manipulating the stock like that legal? Maybe I'm misinterpreting.

This appears to be nothing new and I don't know if it's legit (i.e. to believe whether a suit will actually be filing- it's only "anticipation" at this point). Of course, the stock may drop and continue to do so, regardless of whether any of these allegations are legit.

Are you new to this? Why is what you described any different from ernie et al pounding the table on the company and sending out a huge mass spam mailing? If someone is disseminating fraudulent info in an effort to manipulate a stock price then that's most likely illegal (unless they have very good lawyers). I'm much more inclined to believe that this company is nothing but a snake oil outfit but that's just my personal opinion.

[mrmarket]

Are you new to this? Why is what you described any different from ernie et al pounding the table on the company and sending out a huge mass spam mailing? If someone is disseminating fraudulent info in an effort to manipulate a stock price then that's most likely illegal (unless they have very good lawyers). I'm much more inclined to believe that this company is nothing but a snake oil outfit but that's just my personal opinion.

Note in my write up that I never professed that their products were effective. What I DID note was that the company was growing their revenues and earnings AND that people were buying Mannatech products.

[New-born baby]

I do not read the news or balance sheets. I simply read the charts.
Below is the current read on MTEX (my view, of course). When MTEX came out in the top five, I said it was like the other charts in the five: a cup formation that will either make a handle and explode higher, or a double top and pull back. (Read about it here: http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...ostcount=3345). MTEX has done the latter. The recent precipitous fall was stopped at the $15 major support line. Yesterday's bounce was no surprise as a lot people were buying support. (Smart). They will have a stop loss at $14.90 or so. IF***IF that $15 line can hold--great. But should it break we are looking at $10-$11 again. Note the 200 week avg. that has acted as support in the last year. This thing could make another bear flag and fall down to the 200 week avg, at which time it would be another buying opportunity. I should also say that MTEX's 200 day avg is currently $15, so the bulls were stepping forward here.

My personal view is that MTEX will fall down to $10-$11 because the fall from $18 to $15 happened in one day. That usually means that another $3+ is coming off in the next 20 days or less. Look at the chart: it had a fall like this in May/June, and it was a great buying opportunity. It may make a double bottom here at $10.91, and a person could make 115%.

$15 support failing now. Hello, $10.

[mrmarket]

Nice little pop today...I don't think $10 is in the cards. Do you?

[stripesound]

looks too hard

The chart does not look good to me. It could work but this feels like a crap shoot.

Some reasons for hope in the future but recent performance has not been inspiring. I have no good reason to doubt the future story but in my opinion these stories are a 'dime a dozen'. Managment talks a lot about things they "believe" will happen. This isnt worth my hard earned $$$.