Sector Action

[lemonjello]

Ski,

Tough questions. My opinion -

I guess that's possible - I shouldn't have written $strong, but $stable. At this point I think mechanisms will start kicking in to hold the $ above it's previous lows (see the skullduggery $ chart). IMO there seem to be two likely diametric outcomes implied by the SPX/GOLD chart - stagflation - inflation goes up, economy(SPX) slows down (very bad) (chart goes down) and growth with the $stable or moving up (very good) (chart goes up).

There are also some other scenarios like weak gold and economy (SPX) tanking even faster - deflation, depression (very very bad) (chart could go up). I think Bernanke, as he's mentioned, would start dropping $100 bills from helicopters before that happened.

Can gold keep going up and the economy stay strong based on increased exports? IMO it can but not to extremes - some inflation, the $ stays down and exports increase.

Will the Asians stop buying US bonds? I don't see how growth in China (or India, Vietnam, etc.) can slow down for a long time given their population and drive. The Asian banks always sound like they're going to stop holding $ and buying US bonds, but they are sort of locked in and keep doing it anyway. The bond market will make the call and it seems to be saying lower rates.

There are a lot of question marks, like the middle east, the inverted yield curve, which everyone ignored in 2000 btw, but IMO if the $ stabilizes here or a little lower things don't look so bad. Besides what if we slowly pulled out of the middle east and used the "war money" to develop alternate energy sources or provide everyone in the US with medical insurance or some other crazy idea.

Look at the builder stocks - They predicted the downturn in housing over a year ago and have stopped dropping at their long term trend line - TOL for instance. Greenspan thinks the housing sector drop is over. Not bad if true.

This economy has taken some incredible hits the last seven years and bounced back so I'm cautiously optimistic.

Lemon,
Do you think the dollar could continue down from here and gold, which tracks inversely to the dollar, move up and the markets trend up at the same time. Would a weakening dollar make our products ( exports) more economical thus attractive but at the same time be a negative factor towards foreign investors buying our bonds and treasuries. To be honest I don't know if I want the dollar to strengthen to much. Also, so much depends on the geo-political situation in the middle east.

[Runner]

I’m noticing the market is at a possible inflection point right here. Currently I believe the risks going long in non-commodity stocks outweigh the rewards. I don’t like the stall out prior to the S&P 500’s highs. I’m still a Bull but a concerned bull at this juncture. I’m not sure the strength I’m seeing in commodity stocks is a positive factor for this current rally.
I still think transition shorts are in the making and will be watching for confirmation on this thought.

I more likely then not I will not enter long positions next week as I will await a bust out of old highs in the Indices and change my thought process should this occur. Aggressive shorts might have entered today on a trigger off the drifting action. I have not a clue where we go from here but I’ll be looking for shorts.

Have a great weekend!!

I’m still waiting to see which direction the wind blows. I can say I’ve been noticing many sectors beginning to show signs of drifting sideways. I’m not Bear yet and still think downside plays might pay off. It has not been easy shorting as of late with the market all bulled up. One thing about shorting off current levels you will know if you’re wrong by looking at the price. If it pops over old highs take your medicine and move on.

Thus far this week I have ran across some shorting opportunities but the scans have not returned much in either direction. I do plan to track my sector list of those groups that have outperformed the S&P over the last 3 years for the month on December. I’ll post the results after each week.

[Runner]

Week 1 S&P +.94%

[Runner]

I'm starting to see bullish signs in Health related stocks

[Runner]

He is a chart of the Home Health Care. What I like about this chart is a pop out of the base. Now I’m not going to run out and buy any here, as I’d like to see a nice orderly P/B with trigger. This pattern is one of my favorites, as I like the first pullback after a base.

[dmk112]

Runner-what do you think about the OILS...in particular the XOI?

I like the b/o yesterday but it looks like it may be a false one? what u think?

[Runner]

Runner-what do you think about the OILS...in particular the XOI?

I like the b/o yesterday but it looks like it may be a false one? what u think?

DMK, I remain Bull here until chart shows otherwise...

[Runner]

I'm becoming bullish in the DRUG STORE group. I like how the group has bounced off new lows and may be changing character.

[Runner]

Week 1 S&P +.94%

Thus far during the month of December the S&P has managed to drop .15%… Choppy action their to say the least. Here is the performance the group scans thus far for month of December.

[Runner]

I'm becoming bullish in the DRUG STORE group. I like how the group has bounced off new lows and may be changing character.

By the way thus far for the month of December Drug Stores leads all 239 groups I track with a 10.78% gain. Home Health care is up about 7.67%

[Runner]

Jan Group List

List of groups that have outperformed the S&P500 every Jan since 2003

[Runner]

Catv Sys

This is a monthly look at CATV Systems. Notice this chart is moving out to the upside here. I’m longer term bull in this group going into 2007..

[Runner]

This chart looks interesting and I'd become bull on a bust through the Double R...



Gann squares confirms the double R @ 50% suggest awaiting bust before getting excited here…

[Runner]

Thus far during the month of December the S&P has managed to drop .15%… Choppy action their to say the least. Here is the performance the group scans thus far for month of December.

During the month of Dec the S&P500 climbed 1.55%. Here are the group results.



Here is the Dec top group chart...

[Runner]

Commodities have been taking a good butt kicking as of late. Here is SILVER. it is in trouble. Might be worth a play on the short side on a bounce..