TWGP ==> The World Series Winner

[IIC]

Thanks, I have been considering downside protection with puts on MM picks. My own conspiracy theory - it almost seems like there is someone or several people trading against MM picks in the short term.

I rather doubt that there is any conspiracy...But if there was then I'd say Mr. M made it to the top...I'd love it if there was a conspiracy against the IIC 100...That'd be SUPER...I can hear SKI and Peanuts chanting now..."Short The IIC 100...Short The IIC 100...Short The IIC 100"...

[New-born baby]

Monday's take

Well, here's my view of TWGP for now. Looking like she's going to
test $27.50-$25, imho. Ringo, I'd be buying a put IF TWGP falls below $30, or more likely, look to take profits now.

[New-born baby]

MFLX rebound? It's been six months now.

I have seen MM hold a stock 2 years until it turned into a winnah. MFLX may follow suit.

[lemonjello]

MFLX rebound? It's been six months now.

I don't buy into the conspiracy theory. MM is huge, but the market is huger.

What I believe is happening is MM is picking momo stocks in a market that is flat. Good stocks will rebound. Look at AXR. Tremendous play. He should have shorted it for 30%, and then bought it for another 100%. When he picked it, I wrote on Hot Pick of the Day "don't." It had an ugly chart. But it rebounded.

TWGP will probably do the same. In fact, as long as the CEO isn't a crook, all the MM picks rebound.

[Websman]

I don't buy into the conspiracy theory. MM is huge, but the market is huger.

Blasphemy!!!

The Vulcans worship the ground that Mr. Market walks on! Mr Market makes the market his girlfriend!!!

[New-born baby]

Thanks, I have been considering downside protection with puts on MM picks. My own conspiracy theory - it almost seems like there is someone or several people trading against MM picks in the short term.

I don't buy into the conspiracy theory. MM is huge, but the market is huger.

What I believe is happening is MM is picking momo stocks in a market that is flat. Good stocks will rebound. Look at AXR. Tremendous play. He should have shorted it for 30%, and then bought it for another 100%. When he picked it, I wrote on Hot Pick of the Day "don't." It had an ugly chart. But it rebounded.

TWGP will probably do the same. In fact, as long as the CEO isn't a crook, all the MM picks rebound.

[ringo69]

Ringo,
I just want to suggest one thing for you: buy a $30 NOV put for $1. TWGP will bounce, but not for awhile now. AXR took a couple of months, I think, to rebound fully. I thing TWGP may possibly be in that category also.

Thanks, I have been considering downside protection with puts on MM picks. My own conspiracy theory - it almost seems like there is someone or several people trading against MM picks in the short term.

[peanuts]

Well,

TWGP intially made my earnings screen. We'll see how it stacks up against the rest of the bunch. Look for the final spreadsheet this weekend: LINK

[IIC]

bsideindy: Here is another example of how guidance affects the price...WFMI is dn 20% today:

Whole Foods 4Q Net Rises; Stock Slumps On Outlook
.


Whole Foods Market Inc. (WFMI) late Thursday posted higher earnings and revenue in its fiscal fourth quarter, but its shares sagged 14% after hours on a softer growth forecast for fiscal 2007.
Shares of the Austin, Texas, company, which owns and operates the No. 1 U.S. chain of natural foods supermarkets, lost $8.45 to change hands at $51.67 in late trading.
Whole Foods after Thursday's closing bell said its fiscal fourth-quarter net income rose to $39.8 million, or 28 cents a share, from $9.1 million, or 6 cents a share, in the year-ago quarter. Whole Foods' fourth quarter ended Sept. 24.
Excluding certain one-time items, including stock option expenses, earnings came in at 29 cents a share versus 23 cents in the same quarter last year.
Revenue rose to $1.29 billion from $1.12 billion, while same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least a year, rose 8.6% versus a 13.4% increase the year before.
Analysts, on average, expected Whole Foods to post revenue of $1.32 billion, according to Thomson First Call.
Whole Foods said it has increased its quarterly dividend by 20%, to 18 cents from 15 cents a share. The new dividend is payable to shareholders as of Jan. 12.
In a separate announcement, the company said Chairman, Chief Executive and co-founder John Mackey will cut his salary to $1 as of Jan. 1, and will forgo any future stock option awards.
But citing recent results, current sales trends and the "continuing difficult comparison, particularly in the first half of the year," the company said it now expects same-store sales growth of 6% to 8% for fiscal 2007, compared with an 11% rise in fiscal 2006.
Total sales, on a 52-week comparable basis, are now seen coming in 13% to 17% higher than 2006, versus a prior forecast for a 15% to 20% rise. Fiscal 2007 will be a 53-week year, the company said.
As well, materially higher preopening and relocation costs will significantly affect 2007 per-share earnings growth, Whole Foods said.
The popularity of organic and prepared foods and the willingness of shoppers to spend more on high-end merchandise have helped to spur growth at the food retail chain. Analysts have cautioned that increased competition, tough comparisons and a consumer-spending slowdown could hurt Whole Foods.
Whole Foods stock has underperformed its rivals, slipping 23% in the first nine months of the year. Smaller competitor Wild Oats Markets Inc.'s (OATS) shares are up 34% in the same period.

[skiracer]

PE is still very reasonable, even with lower than projected earnings. I still like this company very much.

I should hope so you still have your money in it.

[mrmarket]

They only met estimates...that doesn't seem to help a stock...They need to blow estimates out. I don't know if the had a conference call...that also could have some bearing on it....there are jillions of possible reasons....Did they issue guidance?...If they did and they didn't raise it that normally has a negative effect...at least short term.

Best, Doug(IIC)

PE is still very reasonable, even with lower than projected earnings. I still like this company very much.

[lemonjello]

Runner,

Nice chart. What software are you using for the Klinger O?

The Klinger Oscillator is a volume based oscillator created by Stephen Klinger that measures short-term and long-term trends in money flow into and out of a security.

“The Klinger Oscillator also uses divergence to identify when price and volume are not confirming the direction of the move. It is considered to be a bullish sign when the value of the indicator is heading upward while the price of the security continues to fall. Traders will use other tools such as trendlines, moving averages and other indicators to confirm the reversal.”

“The most important signal occurs when the KO diverges with the underlying price action, especially on new highs or new lows in overbought/oversold territory. For example, when a stock makes a new high or low for a cycle and the KO fails to confirm this, the trend may be losing momentum and nearing completion.”

I’m not a indicator freak but this KO indicator appears to have shown the divergence in price action. Notice this underlining action was not revealed in the volume bars..uuummm…

The Klinger Oscillator is a volume based oscillator created by Stephen Klinger that measures short-term and long-term trends in money flow into and out of a security.

“The Klinger Oscillator also uses divergence to identify when price and volume are not confirming the direction of the move. It is considered to be a bullish sign when the value of the indicator is heading upward while the price of the security continues to fall. Traders will use other tools such as trendlines, moving averages and other indicators to confirm the reversal.”

“The most important signal occurs when the KO diverges with the underlying price action, especially on new highs or new lows in overbought/oversold territory. For example, when a stock makes a new high or low for a cycle and the KO fails to confirm this, the trend may be losing momentum and nearing completion.”

I’m not a indicator freak but this KO indicator appears to have shown the divergence in price action. Notice this underlining action was not revealed in the volume bars..uuummm…

[IIC]

I didn't see Billy's post before I posted mine...What Billy posted would certainly explain it...Doug(IIC)

[IIC]

From Yahoo: The third-quarter profit surged 48 percent.

How is this a huge earnings disappointment? Please explain. I'm pretty new to this, but that seems like good news to me.

They only met estimates...that doesn't seem to help a stock...They need to blow estimates out. I don't know if the had a conference call...that also could have some bearing on it....there are jillions of possible reasons....Did they issue guidance?...If they did and they didn't raise it that normally has a negative effect...at least short term.

Best, Doug(IIC)