Wynn

[lemonjello]

Weekly chart still looks strong. WYNN or LVS worth a shot here. Interesting they didn't pull back with the developing countries stocks much. In 3 or 4 years these stocks could be 5-10 baggers. MACAU MACAU MACAU. 2008 Olympics. What if all the Asian gamblers that now go to Vegas decide to hang at the new Asian strip?

WYNN has really melted up here and looks very bullish. I don’t buy breakouts but I come up a price target of around 104 longer term. Nice eye as I might see how it acts during a pullback.

I wonder if this will P/B and push to tgt or blast through it?

[lemonjello]

Nice report. That reminds me of something Wynn said on the conference call - something like - the small group of tables on the floor of the Macau casino is more profitable than their operations in LV. That's the general idea anyway. Operations in Macau could start taking away business from LV eventually if not already has done.

Macau is where it's at for Wynn. Unless China decides to clamp down it's going to be golden there for a long time.

I'm waiting for a pull back here. LVS might be an option too. Wynn + Macau + Asian gamblers = $$$$$$$$$.

OK...I went to The WYNN today...Here's my report:

1) A "Wannabe" Bellagio...Nice flowers and fountains...but no comparison

2) Don't buy a drink...They cost more than my hotel room at The Excaliber

3) Nice marble modesty shields between the urinals...And check this...They have these "No Splash" pads in the urinals.

4) They need to post instructions on how to turn the faucets on...These are not your normal run of the mill motion sensors...After I figured it out I helped out 3 other guys get their hands washed.

5) Eat before you get here...You know how all the other fancy dancy hotels have at least one coffee shop...Well, the WYNN sorta has one...But with menu items over $30 I wouldn't really call it a coffee shop. Heck, the entree's in the nice restaurants were only $40.

6) They set up the shops so that you always come to a dead end and have to walk by all of the shops over again...Not a bad idea...But who can afford to buy anything anyway??? My wife saw a nice $1,200 pair of shoes...And I saw my first 40 karat diamond...Although I'm sure they have the same thing at Imposters over at Mandalay Bay for about 99% less...And then the have a Ferrari Dealership inside...But they didn't even have price tags on the little collector cars...I guess if you have to ask you can't afford it.

7) $300 minimum on the Blackjack tables!!!...And that was in the main casino...Wonder what it is over in the High Roller Area???...Maybe Dave knows???...However, they did have a few $15 min. tables.

8 )Except for the Poker Room...It was least crowded place I've been to so far...Maybe it is because they don't allow strollers in the hotel...What the heck kinda rule is that?...What???...Rich people don't have kids???

[IIC]

OK...I went to The WYNN today...Here's my report:

1) A "Wannabe" Bellagio...Nice flowers and fountains...but no comparison

2) Don't buy a drink...They cost more than my hotel room at The Excaliber

3) Nice marble modesty shields between the urinals...And check this...They have these "No Splash" pads in the urinals.

4) They need to post instructions on how to turn the faucets on...These are not your normal run of the mill motion sensors...After I figured it out I helped out 3 other guys get their hands washed.

5) Eat before you get here...You know how all the other fancy dancy hotels have at least one coffee shop...Well, the WYNN sorta has one...But with menu items over $30 I wouldn't really call it a coffee shop. Heck, the entree's in the nice restaurants were only $40.

6) They set up the shops so that you always come to a dead end and have to walk by all of the shops over again...Not a bad idea...But who can afford to buy anything anyway??? My wife saw a nice $1,200 pair of shoes...And I saw my first 40 karat diamond...Although I'm sure they have the same thing at Imposters over at Mandalay Bay for about 99% less...And then the have a Ferrari Dealership inside...But they didn't even have price tags on the little collector cars...I guess if you have to ask you can't afford it.

7) $300 minimum on the Blackjack tables!!!...And that was in the main casino...Wonder what it is over in the High Roller Area???...Maybe Dave knows???...However, they did have a few $15 min. tables.

8 )Except for the Poker Room...It was least crowded place I've been to so far...Maybe it is because they don't allow strollers in the hotel...What the heck kinda rule is that?...What???...Rich people don't have kids???

Why did you even mention an "ordinary dividend" for the $6 WYNN divy. Obviously you thought it was.

So you are saying this is not an "ordinary divy" but is still not being adjusted.

Is that the case?

I was talking about options adjusting for dividend payouts in general, not WYNN specifically. Option strike prices will be adjusted if the stock's dividend, regular or special, is 10% or greater than the stock's price.

[lemonjello]

Ok. Time is up, the betting window is closed.

BTW, I've already made a nice donation to the Salvation Army. I highly recommend it.

[lemonjello]

Why did you even mention an "ordinary dividend" for the $6 WYNN divy. Obviously you thought it was.

So you are saying this is not an "ordinary divy" but is still not being adjusted.

Is that the case?

I never said that. I said an ordinary dividend payout does not affect the strike price.

The SSF for WYNN is being reduced by $6 but the stock options are not. OPRA has a 10% threshold requirement before making a change and since $6 is less than 10% of the stock price, there will be no reduction or adjustment in the strike prices.

Since you and Dave are nice guys and are 100% positive that there is no strike adjustment.

I never said that. I said an ordinary dividend payout does not affect the strike price.

The SSF for WYNN is being reduced by $6 but the stock options are not. OPRA has a 10% threshold requirement before making a change and since $6 is less than 10% of the stock price, there will be no reduction or adjustment in the strike prices.

[lemonjello]

Don't think of it as a "bet", think of it as a charitable wager or a defense of your option expertise - they don't make these wagers in LV.

Any other takers? Dave? Defend your option expertise!

Thanks, but no thanks. I don't bet.

Hey, did you check out those $85 calls?

[New-born baby]

Since you and Dave are nice guys and are 100% positive that there is no strike adjustment, I'm sure you all wouldn't mind placing a small bet.

How about a $1000 donation from you to the Salvation Army in my name if I win and I'll do the same for you if you win.

Thanks, but no thanks. I don't bet.

Hey, did you check out those $85 calls?

[lemonjello]

BTW, this bet is also open to Dave or any other senior member of the MM site.

Since you and Dave are nice guys and are 100% positive that there is no strike adjustment, I'm sure you all wouldn't mind placing a small bet.

How about a $1000 donation from you to the Salvation Army in my name if I win and I'll do the same for you if you win.

[lemonjello]

Since you and Dave are nice guys and are 100% positive that there is no strike adjustment, I'm sure you all wouldn't mind placing a small bet.

How about a $1000 donation from you to the Salvation Army in my name if I win and I'll do the same for you if you win.

Dave's a good man. And I agree with him that the strikes do not get adjusted down. They don't do that for XOM; they won't do it for WYNN.

[New-born baby]

Long call

Okay Lemon. You want it bad? You'll get it bad. You want it real bad? You'll get it real bad

Here's a play for you:
Buy WYNN. ANY price will do. Doesn't matter.

SELL the JAN 07 $75 call for (currently) $17.50. You get the divy; you get your money back in JAN. IF WYNN looks to fall further, adjust the strike lower. This is how I would play it.

EDIT: here's your solution. Buy the stock and sell the JAN 07 $85 call. You can do this and earn a time premium of $.20 per share. Now that protects you down to $85, and if you sell TWO calls per share, you'll come out smelling like a rose.

[New-born baby]

Are you and Dave POSITIVE that it's an ordinary dividend that won't be adjusted in the strikes?

Not that I'd say anything, but I've already noted that Dave shouldn't be messing with options in Doc's thread. Math problems.

Dave's a good man. And I agree with him that the strikes do not get adjusted down. They don't do that for XOM; they won't do it for WYNN.

I think WYNN returns to $77.50 minus! after the divy within 90 days.

[lemonjello]

Are you and Dave POSITIVE that it's an ordinary dividend that won't be adjusted in the strikes?

Not that I'd say anything, but I've already noted that Dave shouldn't be messing with options in Doc's thread. Math problems.

Dave is correct.

I've seen dogs like WYNN and FRO. Big divys. Big hits once the divy payout hits the market. Shorting the stock is risky. PUTS are too expensive. WYNN will fall much more than the $6. In fact I assume the last couple of days before the ex-date will be down days. Lots of folks are jumping on board now simply for a quick ride up, but they'll leave the train before the ex-date. A naked call sold the day before the ex-date is the safest play. And it'll have to be out of the money or else they will call you on it as soon as it becomes breakeven for them.