Running With The Shark

[riverbabe]

Ski, that's a very enlightening explanation. I have printed it for future reference. Appreciate! Riverbabe

[skiracer]

Please enlighten me, swami! I value your wisdom!

I would agree with the Rev and how he used basing on his chart although his time frame is quite short. Basing is usually a chart pattern that begins to exhibit a rangebound or narrowing channel of daily highs and lows over a period of time. Usually over an extended period of time and continues out in a relatively horizontal line or channel of daily highs and lows. O'Neil's definition is somewhere around 6/8 weeks but he is also talking about a different type of cup base. A stock can base or form this rangebound pattern for much shorter periods of time, similiar to what the Shark is showing on his daily chart, but I don't think the shorter bases are as reliable in a decision making process.

When I speak about consolidation or a stock consolidating I'm talking about some type of corrective action that takes place after some length of uptrend or downtrend. A pullback is consolidation of recent gains being taken out by traders who got in earlier and usually at a lower price than the the guys in above them. What this does is consolidates price levels where different groups of traders have made their entries. As the stock drops it consolidates into a new support level or some existing one. You won't find a stock consolidating while in a basing pattern as there are no gains or losses big enough to pullback into.

[riverbabe]

River,
I don't think that basing in the true sense of the word can be used specifically in the same context as when using consolidation. Two different terms with different meanings and uses in my estimation.

Please enlighten me, swami! I value your wisdom!

[skiracer]

Spike, I think it probably is semantics: "basing" v. "consolidation."
The stock clearly is stalled, but reflecting a somewhat stalled market, I think. He recommended a stop in the area of 36. I see what you mean about a possible impulsive 2 down. It's down about .41 at this time, to 37.60 but the LOD is 36.85. I've got a tight stop on this one.

Thanks for your comments. River

River,
I don't think that basing in the true sense of the word can be used specifically in the same context as when using consolidation. Two different terms with different meanings and uses in my estimation.

[riverbabe]

FCSX Wednesday night

According to the Rev Shark, FCSX took a hit today as the broader market sold off. Although the stock lost $1.37 volume was lighter and it did find some minor support at 36. (Too late for me, as I got stopped out). Since the company announced that it will release its earnings on Friday morning, the Rev advises that if you haven't already cut some of your position you should be ready to do so. Riverbabe

[riverbabe]

Stopped out

I got stopped out of FCSX today at 36.23 for about a dollar loss. Riverbabe

[riverbabe]

FCSX - Tuesday night

Sorry I'm late posting this today. When I turned my computer on this morning, I got the dreaded blue screen of death telling me that I must have downloaded something that now required turning my computer off. When I got it up again, I started backing up EVERYTHING to CD. That's what I've been doing since then!

According to Rev Shark from last night, FCSX pulled back on lighter volume to the 37 level before rebounding slightly. But he thinks that the stock continues to build a promising looking base and the technical action is positive, even though we aren’t seeing the positive momentum in the short term that he would like to see. He says, "the stock continues to look fine and we will continue to hold."

[riverbabe]

Spike, I think it probably is semantics: "basing" v. "consolidation."
The stock clearly is stalled, but reflecting a somewhat stalled market, I think. He recommended a stop in the area of 36. I see what you mean about a possible impulsive 2 down. It's down about .41 at this time, to 37.60 but the LOD is 36.85. I've got a tight stop on this one.

Thanks for your comments. River

[riverbabe]

river,
We were very close to your neck of the woods yesterday at Cleveland Clinic's Westlake building. What snow we had is gone, but by the time we hit Westlake it was getting deep. Went to Champps restaurant at Crocker Park and there were 4 ft. tall snowmen on the outdoor patio tables. Then the sun came out and it started melting. Keep finding those good stocks!

------------billtjoe

My gosh, billyjoe, you were only a couple of miles from me! Can't believe you didn't call or at least stop in! Maybe next time? I also use CCF Westlake (first floor Int. Med.) Wouldn't it be funny if we had the same doctor? Happy you enjoyed the restaurant at Crocker Park. There are a lot of good ones there. Although the snow is melting now, it sure came down steadily over 5 days! Everybody has been wishing Merry Christmas instead of Happy Easter. Riverbabe

[spikefader]

Hi River!
I'm curious why he uses the word 'basing' for a month-old stock that's been in an uptrend. I guess if you read the stockcharts definition of basing any decline qualifies, but I can't help but think of 'basing' after an extended or lengthy decline. Anyway, semantics...

But as far as the stock goes, it's clearly been impulsive on the weekly. It's a 1 up until it isn't I guess, but daily price action has lost the early impulsiveness it displayed and I'm wondering if it's ready to do the impulsive 2 down now, especially given the intraday impulsive selling the last 2 days. Where's his stop, if any? Thanks much!

[billyjoe]

river,
We were very close to your neck of the woods yesterday at Cleveland Clinic's Westlake building. What snow we had is gone, but by the time we hit Westlake it was getting deep. Went to Champps restaurant at Crocker Park and there were 4 ft. tall snowmen on the outdoor patio tables. Then the sun came out and it started melting. Keep finding those good stocks!

------------billtjoe

[riverbabe]

FCSX - Monday night

This is a report from Rev Shark re. Monday's action. "FCSX made a new intraday high by a few cents before pulling back. Volume picked up and the stock continues to show signs of solid accumulation but has not yet managed another major leg up. We will continue to hold and give the stock some room to run...."

Another example of "patience is a virtue." Riverbabe

[riverbabe]

The Rev's Stock of the Week, FCSX -- April 9th

Well, this has to be a first! The Rev Shark's Stock of the Week this week is the same one as last week -- FCSX!

At his web site, www.sharkinvesting.com, he describes the great fundies of this stock, and why he thinks it will break out this week. (It had an unsustained breakout on Thursday last week, where I bought my remaining shares.)

Read all about it!

[riverbabe]

At this point, my scan says next resistance is 2500ish.

Which is why I guessed 2504 for "call the 2nd quarter."

[riverbabe]

Confluence Confluence occurs when you take fibonacci projections off of multiple trends and get the same number and strengthens when it corresponds with other technical advents such as gaps, swing high/lows, chart indicators crossovers (MACD, RSI, Stochastics, etc.), trading congestion, etc. The more confluence, the more significant the level. I really take notice when I get two or more fib #s (say a 38.2% and 61.8%) to correspond with a gap in the chart or a swing high. Confluence is very powerful as it combines multiple technical analysis techniques to arrive at the same conclusion, and should be relied on accordingly IMHO

Wow! I must be getting better at this! I actually understood that paragraph! Thanks for the lesson. I'll try using it if I have time this weekend and see what happens! Riverbabe