VIP ==> The Spring is Here Winner!

[skiracer]

I have to agree with Spike wholeheartedly. Has anyone heard anything on the time of the report tomorrow? I'm still holding the short play.

[mrmarket]

I have to agree with Spike wholeheartedly. Has anyone heard anything on the time of the report tomorrow? I'm still holding the short play.

They missed expectations. It's going to get punished today. I need to start looking at lower PE stocks as these high flyers that miss earnings are killing me!

[New-born baby]

Here's where the straddle play I suggested looks great.

[skiracer]

They missed expectations. It's going to get punished today. I need to start looking at lower PE stocks as these high flyers that miss earnings are killing me!

It's only down 3.8 from your entry of 98.80. That 3.846%. Not even to my limit yet but if you feel that it is going to get punished today or moreso even over the next couple of weeks where the damage caused by missing earnings expectations is not going to be recoupable over your desired time frame or longer then why not bail today as soon as you see which way the wind is going to blow. I really do think there is some merit to this line of thought for the trade right now. I would give it a half hour to see what is going on first. Put the cash right back into something you feel better about. SPIL is approaching a nice entry point if it goes to 10/10.25 levels.

I'm still holding that short play from 95.90. It's down 2.70 in the pre-market to 92 level. That's down almost right at 7% now. Sorry Ernie and the rest of you guys. Very dangerous buying right in front of earnings like this and relying on the report to support your expectations. Having an exit plan and point is primary especially in front of earnings like this trade. But you know what we all do it at some point and the pre-market doesn't mean anything. See what it does at the open.

I covered the short play at 92.50 almost right off the bat this morning. Some of the most erratic trading spikes and drops I've seen in a short concentrated time frame this morning. Before I could pull the trigger it went from 91.50 /92.50 range in what seemed like seconds. I don't see what would drive it up from here with it missing on the report. I haven't even read the report or heard what it was. Over 7 points gained in the two short plays over two days. I hope it goes back over everyone's entries but I don't see it.

[mrmarket]

Looks like I dodged a bullet. I love it when the market reacts the way it is supposed to!

[jiesen]

Here's where the straddle play I suggested looks great.

and where the SPIL pick that Ski and I both liked also is looking pretty good.

Ah well, who knew the Russian government would dispute the taxes of a highly profitable telecom business? (ah well, at least they ARE highly profitable still)

[skiracer]

and where the SPIL pick that Ski and I both liked also is looking pretty good.

Ah well, who knew the Russian government would dispute the taxes of a highly profitable telecom business? (ah well, at least they ARE highly profitable still)

Jiesen,
Do you own SPIL? I like it alot and may have missed the boat waiting for a lower entry. There's plenty of potential there for sure.

[mrmarket]

Great Motley Fool article on Vimpel

VimpelCom Is No Wimp
By Dave Mock
April 12, 2007
Russian cellular service provider VimpelCom (NYSE: VIP) gave investors good reason to crack open another bottle of vodka today -- its fourth-quarter and year-end results show the same powerful performance that has more than doubled its share price in the past year.

First, let's look at the good news in the big picture:

Yearly revenue increased 51.6%, to $4.868 billion.
Net income totaled $811.5 million, a 31.9% increase from 2005.
Operating cash flow was up 51.8%, to $1.971 billion, yielding free cash flow of $459.2 million for the year.
VimpelCom is doing a bang-up job of scaling growth in the face of major competitor Mobile TeleSystems (NYSE: MBT). The company added 10 million new customers last year, ending with more than 55 million overall. While its size pales in comparison to foreign behemoths China Mobile (NYSE: CHL) and Vodafone (NYSE: VOD), the 21.4% yearly growth is what counts. The new customers were split between Russia and other countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States, such as Kazakhstan (1.8 million additions) and Ukraine (1.6 million additions), where VimpelCom will focus for continued subscriber growth.

Read more at The Motley Fool

[mrmarket]

SeekingAlpha
Vimpel-Com's Earnings Rise 30%, Miss Due to Tax Charge
Thursday April 12, 11:42 am ET


Vimpel-Communications, reported fourth-quarter earnings this morning that were slightly below market expectations, the result of a large charge related to a tax dispute. Shares are currently higher by $0.50, or 0.53%, to $95.20 in late morning trading. Despite net income falling $70 million on a quarter over quarter basis to $198 million, or $3.89 a share, income would have eclipsed Reuters analyst expectations of $238 million if not for a $42.5 million tax dispute charge. On a year over year basis, earnings rose nicely: net income gained 30%, to EPS of $3.89, compared with $2.97 a year earlier. Net operating revenue rose 59% to $1.45 billion. The company expects to continue its strong subscriber growth outside of Russia in the future. Vitaly Kupeev, telecom analyst at Alfa-Bank pointed out that "overall this is a good set of results, and there is no reason for concern."

[jiesen]

oops- don't know how I missed this post but...

Jiesen,
Do you own SPIL? I like it alot and may have missed the boat waiting for a lower entry. There's plenty of potential there for sure.

Nope, didn't buy SPIL. Was wishing I had though, because I did like it a lot. However, with yesterday's GS downgrade, it's now right back to where it was when we looked at it before (except now it's been downgraded!). So you haven't missed the boat quite yet, and maybe it's worth another look at this point, but I have a feeling the effects of the downgrade have yet to be fully resolved.

I'd wait and try to get more info and a better beat on the stock before buying, but yeah, a switch out from VIP to SPIL is still in the back of my mind.

[New-born baby]

Ski,
BW: Let's see . . . PnF tell us that expected target of $48.50 has already been achieved. The weekly chart shows us, according to the Dow Theory, that BW should run to $60.50.
In summary, I think she'll make the $60 target if earnings don't disappoint.

It should be noted that the earnings call is due April 26. A May options straddle gives one an excellent chance to profit. That is the only way I'd play this one.

The straddle I would consider would be the May call and put, in the money at the strike applicable on April 25.

Well now, what do you know? Just a little $10.13 earnings hit. Not too bad.

[skiracer]

Well now, what do you know? Just a little $10.13 earnings hit. Not too bad.

I made over 8 points per contract on the call option play on BW and took my gains before it hit 60. The stock did everything that I expected it to do and more. Except for the time decay with the call I still liked the play but decided it was time to get out.
I just read the earnings report and I don't see anything that looks to be negative. Everything was way up over last qtr. and last year. I don't know why the big drop but I would be keeping a close eye on the stock and the option for something to the long side because I don't understand this drop today. I hope River was watching or at least had a stop in place today. This would knock out all of her gains.

[jiesen]

VIP breaks 100!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=VIP&t=5d

go VIP!

[mrmarket]

This one has rockets in its pockets...no resistance left. Target imminent.

[jiesen]

This one has rockets in its pockets...no resistance left. Target imminent.

yes... resistance is futile! 113 is inevitable.