ZIXI - LONG or SHORT?

[riverbabe]

I also posted this on Ski's Stock Slopes this AM.

Looking like a classic H&S pattern now. Bounced off but couldn't break through 50 dma resistance. Should we be short this now instead of long? Any help would be appreciated. Riverbabe

Sorry stockcharts.com would not let me upload my annotated chart. Guess I need the more expensive version.

Riverbabe

[peanuts]

ZIXI - I'll take option C - "flat"

It needs to work thru this 1.60-1.70 area before direction can be determined. I would hate to be on the wrong side of this stock as it seems like whenever it decides to move, it's going to be a big and fast one either way.

Good luck

[riverbabe]

ZIXI - I'll take option C - "flat"

It needs to work thru this 1.60-1.70 area before direction can be determined. I would hate to be on the wrong side of this stock as it seems like whenever it decides to move, it's going to be a big and fast one either way.

Good luck

Thanks Pea. Hope the luck is good!

[Tatnic]

I also posted this on Ski's Stock Slopes this AM.

Looking like a classic H&S pattern now. Bounced off but couldn't break through 50 dma resistance. Should we be short this now instead of long? Any help would be appreciated. Riverbabe

Sorry stockcharts.com would not let me upload my annotated chart. Guess I need the more expensive version.

Riverbabe

Looks like a fairly orderly retracement so far RB....but its such a puny stock that anything can happen in a heart beat.

[Tatnic]

Looks like a fairly orderly retracement so far RB....but its such a puny stock that anything can happen in a heart beat.

The level I'd watch would be $1.40. You're comfortably above that. And also, you can sometimes gauge a healthy retracement by watching the yearly high and low...if you end up right in the middle that can be around the bounce level. For this stock that equates to $1.5 give or take a dime.

[riverbabe]

The level I'd watch would be $1.40. You're comfortably above that. And also, you can sometimes gauge a healthy retracement by watching the yearly high and low...if you end up right in the middle that can be around the bounce level. For this stock that equates to $1.5 give or take a dime.

Thanks a mil$ Tatnic. This is one recommended by Ski on his stockcharts site about a week ago. It looked better than. I haven't bet the farm on it but need to be careful that I don't lose (too much) either. Riverbabe

[Tatnic]

Thanks a mil$ Tatnic. This is one recommended by Ski on his stockcharts site about a week ago. It looked better than. I haven't bet the farm on it but need to be careful that I don't lose (too much) either. Riverbabe

If you pull up the weekly version you can see that the volume has dried up during this pullback and that can mean that its an orderly retracement. So I think its too early to tell...

Its certainly not a head and shoulders pattern. You have to get the right shoulder and then break below the neckline for that pattern to be legit. I can't begin to count the numbers of times I've see a chart like this that has formed the left shoulder and the head but ultimately continues to power up. Set your stops at 1.38 and don't worry about it.

[New-born baby]

If you pull up the weekly version you can see that the volume has dried up during this pullback and that can mean that its an orderly retracement. So I think its too early to tell...

Its certainly not a head and shoulders pattern. You have to get the right shoulder and then break below the neckline for that pattern to be legit. I can't begin to count the numbers of times I've see a chart like this that has formed the left shoulder and the head but ultimately continues to power up. Set your stops at 1.38 and don't worry about it.

Tatnic is probably right. You are too late to jump out of this ship; and you jumped onto this ship too early. The best advice, imho, would be to hold on and wait until ZIXI works itself out. ZIXI should bounce around $1.40; or $1.25; or even $0.50. We will have to wait and see. But when she bounces you could possibly consider tripling down at that point, to lower your breakeven exit price. But this last piece of advice needs to be carefully weighed against the risk factors involved, and I would suggest some careful FA by some expert lurking around here, like Peanuts. When it comes to FA, he's in the big leagues.

[skiracer]

Looking like a classic H&S pattern now. Bounced off but couldn't break through 50 dma resistance. Should we be short this now instead of long? Any help would be appreciated. Riverbabe

The first rule is that you MUST have some specific plan for the trade.
The second rule is that you understand that the higher percentage of your trades are going to be losers.
The 3rd rule is that the only way to control those percentages is by controlling the trade and not letting the trade control you.
You can only do that one way and that is rule # 1.

I highlighted ZIXI and ONT at the Stockcharts public charts last week. I own several thousand shares of both. Discounting my reasoning behind making the trades in the first place just say that I was in ZIXI from the 1.95 / 2.00 range and that I must have liked or seen something in it either technically or fundamentally that made me feel that way. Aside from hitting the submit button and making the trade the very first thing I do is look to where I would make my exit or place my stop either physically or mentally. It is usually at somewhere around 7% from my entry and VERY VERY VERY seldom is it more or do I let it go farther than 7 % below my entry. With ZIXI the stop/exit level was at 1.81. I never placed the physical stop on ZIXI but it wasn't necessary as I knew that I was in control of the trade and my emotions and there was no way that I would let the trade go past that point or get out of my control. When the stock hit 1.81 I exited the trade and took the loss which was around $2100.00. I know that I am not going to win them all and won't even come close to winning 50 % of them and I don't care. But I stop the bleeding early and let the winners run.
The other stock, ONT, was entered at 2.09 and closed today at 3.59. It has been as high as 3.98 or so. That is a 71.7 % gain as of todays close. The offsetting gain certainly takes care of the 7 % loss on ZIXI and depending on the number of shares will offset up to and including almost another 4 or 5 losers at 7% if that be the case. At this point I am up a touch over $16,000 on the ONT trade. That's the difference in cutting the losers off at a reasonable point with a specific plan in place and not knowing what you are going to do if and when the trade goes against you.
Perhaps the biggest point in all of this is that if you are still holding the trade and are now much lower than 7 % and probably right around 16/17 % down from your entry and I am out of the trade and now watching for the bottom, without any concerns as to whether the stock goes up or down but the option of getting in at a much lower price than I had initially. In doing so I am now in a position to ride the stock from the bottoming out point back up to 2 or higher which would put me in a position to reap the benefits of the drop or pullback or whatever you want to call it or not to do anything while you are still holding and hoping that the stock will go back up or maybe exiting now in a desperate move to cut you losses now instead of when it would have cost you a lot less.
The short play may have been missed and I would think it is now gone. If I was that interested in the stock I would be looking for the bottom and a re-entry on the long side from that bottom. But in my estimation the stock has failed at my original plan and it is now dead in my book. Maybe sometime later it might again catch my interest but the last thing I would be looking to do is to chase it on the short side right here.
Until you or anyone accepts the fact that you must have an exit strategy or stop and the rest of the plan in place and set in your mind and honor it you will never be as successful as your potential.
Sounds harsh but as true as the sun rising tomorrow morning.

[riverbabe]

Until you or anyone accepts the fact that you must have an exit strategy or stop and the rest of the plan in place and set in your mind and honor it you will never be as successful as your potential.
Sounds harsh but as true as the sun rising tomorrow morning.

Yes sir. I know this. I very seldom make this mistake. But I did this time. Mea culpa. Riverbabe

[Tatnic]

Until you or anyone accepts the fact that you must have an exit strategy or stop and the rest of the plan in place and set in your mind and honor it you will never be as successful as your potential.
Sounds harsh but as true as the sun rising tomorrow morning.

Yes sir. I know this. I very seldom make this mistake. But I did this time. Mea culpa. Riverbabe

In my not so humble opinion, these micro cap pennies are so close to options in their trading risk. (the only difference being that options are a wasting asset and can and regularly do go to zero). You have to expect large moves in both directions and I don't think you should panic at this point. Heck, you should never really panic as Ski implies. When you bought this you should have noticed on the weekly charts where the last correction ended, which was around 1.4...then buy your position based on the premise that it will go down and test this level (well, maybe it'll stop a dime higher if its a healthy stock) and then it will bounce.

I WANT TO STRESS THIS FUNKY POINT....I OFTEN WORRY WHEN A TRADE GOES IMMEDIATELY IN MY DIRECTION, MORE SO THAN WHEN IT GOES AGAINST ME. I SAY THIS BECAUSE I AM NOT A TRADER BUT AN INVESTOR AND I WOULD RATHER HAVE A POSITION GO AGAINST ME AT FIRST AND GET IT OVER WITH.....TAKE A LOOK AT USG AS A RECENT EXAMPLE. IF YOU'RE AN INVESTOR THEN DON'T WORRY ABOUT THE SMALL, DAY TO DAY FLUCCUATIONS...BUT SINCE YOU ARE BUYING PENNIES AND WORRYING ABOUT THEM I'D GUESS YOU HAVE A TRADER'S MENTALITY, WHICH IS NOT GOOD FOR THE LONG RUN IMO.

[Tatnic]

Tatnic is probably right. You are too late to jump out of this ship; and you jumped onto this ship too early. The best advice, imho, would be to hold on and wait until ZIXI works itself out. ZIXI should bounce around $1.40; or $1.25; or even $0.50. We will have to wait and see. But when she bounces you could possibly consider tripling down at that point, to lower your breakeven exit price. But this last piece of advice needs to be carefully weighed against the risk factors involved, and I would suggest some careful FA by some expert lurking around here, like Peanuts. When it comes to FA, he's in the big leagues.

I agree that pnuts knows his stuff, but fundamentally this company is crap. Unless something happened in the very recent past (new management?) that explains the big jump in the share price that I missed. Bottom line, this is as speculative as they come but as the recent price action shows, even speculative crap can have its day.

[riverbabe]

In my not so humble opinion, these micro cap pennies are so close to options in their trading risk. (the only difference being that options are a wasting asset and can and regularly do go to zero). You have to expect large moves in both directions and I don't think you should panic at this point. Heck, you should never really panic as Ski implies. When you bought this you should have noticed on the weekly charts where the last correction ended, which was around 1.4...then buy your position based on the premise that it will go down and test this level (well, maybe it'll stop a dime higher if its a healthy stock) and then it will bounce.

I WANT TO STRESS THIS FUNKY POINT....I OFTEN WORRY WHEN A TRADE GOES IMMEDIATELY IN MY DIRECTION, MORE SO THAN WHEN IT GOES AGAINST ME. I SAY THIS BECAUSE I AM NOT A TRADER BUT AN INVESTOR AND I WOULD RATHER HAVE A POSITION GO AGAINST ME AT FIRST AND GET IT OVER WITH.....TAKE A LOOK AT USG AS A RECENT EXAMPLE. IF YOU'RE AN INVESTOR THEN DON'T WORRY ABOUT THE SMALL, DAY TO DAY FLUCCUATIONS...BUT SINCE YOU ARE BUYING PENNIES AND WORRYING ABOUT THEM I'D GUESS YOU HAVE A TRADER'S MENTALITY, WHICH IS NOT GOOD FOR THE LONG RUN IMO.

Very good advice. I have printed this out. I very seldom fool around with stocks this cheap any more. Long time ago, I got out of PRZ and MCZ luckily intact and with a profit. The timing was everything. SIRI I made a double and haven't been in since. But I have become a trader I think, in this particular market. Momentum seems to be the name of the game right now. Courting danger? Probably. It was good that Ski yelled at me. I need to stay on my toes and won't soon forget again.

[riverbabe]

Quote:
Originally Posted by New-born baby
I own ZIXI with you, Ski, and I sure wish it would go off, too.

New-born baby, you still in this??? Riverbabe
__________________

[New-born baby]

Quote:
Originally Posted by New-born baby
I own ZIXI with you, Ski, and I sure wish it would go off, too.

New-born baby, you still in this??? Riverbabe
__________________

Yes, I still own it. No sweat over here. Its going to be alright if you hold long enough.