Toll brothers will end Mr Market's streak

[Jim Smith]

TOL is so bad, it will ruin the streak and steal the profits of many prior winners.

[sisterwin2]

hell.... I though MFLX did that all ready...

I sure lost alot.




You would think that I would of learn my lesson already about stops..
hope this is the last time I have to say this. Not even worth putting a stop on it now

[Rob]

I though MFLX did that all ready... I sure lost alot. [. . .] Not even worth putting a stop on it now

MFLX worked out to be a pretty good trade for me. I bought it on 3/10/06 for 54.9356 and sold it on 3/20/06 for 64.82. That's 18% in 10 days.

Ironically, 15½ months later at 17.50, time may show that MFLX turns out to be a pretty good buy right now.

The P/E is currently 25.75, but only 16.68 based on 2008 earnings estimates. The caveat to that is: they missed the last 5 estimates by 0.03, 0.03, 0.19, 0.06, and 0.02 respectively.

[Peter Hansen]

XHB & ITB 2 Bargain Home Builders!

Although XHB and ITB are 2 Home builder ETF's that are ....."Dead as Casey's Nuts" . They will definitely come back .....sure as the sun rises ! when an uptrend appears to be in place ....hop on and enjoy the ride up .....but right now there is no sense piling in and sitting on dead money!

[jiesen]

OT but

I think the MFLX topic is better anyway, so let me chip in with some MFLX info. MFLX was a pretty good deal at 17 a few weeks ago, but this week it's an incredible deal ay 17.5, and here's why:

Nevermind that income should pick back up from 0.6 this year to $1.0/shr next year according to analysts, the big difference between this week and last is that MFLX no longer has that albatross of the MFS Tech deal hanging on its neck.

M-Flex Announces WBL Shareholders Vote Against Accepting The MFS Technology Offer

That was a potential $200M+ screwup, but no is longer an issue. The MFLX execs are now free to focus instead on the next iPhone knock-off or whatever it is that they need to do in order to get the EPS up from $1 to $2 in the years ahead.

Back On Topic, though:
TOL likewise is in a rut due to the cyclical nature of the business. Like MFLX, though, they're still making money, and although analysts are predicting less profit for TOL now than they were 3 months ago, MFLX is still slated to make $2.4 (down by ~20% from prior estimates). That's a P/E of 10, which ain't bad. And when the market picks back up, so will this stock (and so will MFLX).

The $MM model tends to crash the party late on occasion, but as long as in these cases a company with solid "underpinnings" is selected, it stands a good chance of being redeemed for the 15% gain sometime in the future. I'm comfortable that MFLX, TOL, KBH, and others which have fallen on rough times will in large part make it through ok, eventually. After all, we all still need (ok, want) a fancy house and a new cell-phone, right?