newborn

[New-born baby]

Hi New-born,

I bought RIMM earlier this week BEFORE MM posted his buy. I had hoped it was a good call because of that. Well, I'm holding from $217 on it. You are calling for $184 now. Do you see it going higher than my $217 after that? I'll probably buy more at $184 now too.

Thanks for the help.

I think RIMM hits MM's target PLUS much more over the next few months. RIMM is just going to touch $184 before it reaches MM's price target, imho. At least that is what the chart says.

Matt, if you own 100 shares, you can sell a call on your shares. Or even if you don't, you can buy a put. The option chain is rich here, and affords a great deal of protection.

[Matt]

Thanks for the reply New Born.

I've not traded options before. Curious about them, however. Would you give me a quick lesson (not one I would use, just a paper trade here) on the puts for RIMM? What month would you be looking at and what strike price? Thanks so much.

Matt

[spikefader]

SPIKE! SPIKE! WHERE ARE YA, MAN? YA WEARING THAT BULL SUIT STILL? Please post your market outlook for next week.

I'll be scalping futures short side tomorrow unless the bull does something impressive......but that's just very short term vision, based off daily you-know-what bias.

No doubt we're at a critical point at current levels, with INDU weekly slightly below it's latest fuzzy C support. I am expecting Friday's low to be a significant low for a while....with a nice rally starting tomorrow...but that expectation is based purely off the historical behavior 2 weeks after weekly VIX has closed above my tweaked bands, which it did 2 weeks ago. So I'm looking for the tradeable rally.

Frankly though......who ever knows these things for sure? No-one!

The market will have its way with us, and all we can do is control our entries and exits relative to the plan.

I've got my own plan; continue to trade futures in scalp fashion while I average into some swing positions.....and that's whether it dumps, trades sideways, or rallies. I don't normally average in, as you know, but I think it's a good strategy given the technical circumstances. Yes, we may sell hard for a few days......but this dip.....however big it is......is a buying opp in my humble opinion.

[New-born baby]

RIMM Options

Thanks for the reply New Born.

I've not traded options before. Curious about them, however. Would you give me a quick lesson (not one I would use, just a paper trade here) on the puts for RIMM? What month would you be looking at and what strike price? Thanks so much.

Matt

You are late to the options party. Should have done something sooner. But anyway . . . the idea is to do one of many possible things. The two strategies I like best are:

1. SELL a deep in the money call and let the market give you your money back. Example: You paid $210 per share. Sell the SEPT $185 call for $28.80. You'd receive $213.80 IF you didn't trade out of this play before expiry. Most likely RIMM will hit bottom and begin to bounce before the next five weeks pass, and you'd then cover your call and take options profits, and ride RIMM higher. This is my preferred strategy.

2. SELL a call and buy a put. For example, sell the SEPT $210 call for $13.70 and BUY the SEPT $210 put for $15.30. It would cost you $1.60 to guarantee that your RIMM shares would at least net you $208.40, and as the market settles down, you could trade out of one position or the other for greater profits. In this strategy you are expecting RIMM to move South, and as it does so, you will be down only $1.60 on expiry no matter the price of RIMM shares at that time. Great safety here.

With options, you can trade in and out of them at any time during the day, and that makes an adjustment easy to do.

[New-born baby]

I'll be scalping futures short side tomorrow unless the bull does something impressive......but that's just very short term vision, based off daily you-know-what bias.

No doubt we're at a critical point at current levels, with INDU weekly slightly below it's latest fuzzy C support. I am expecting Friday's low to be a significant low for a while....with a nice rally starting tomorrow...but that expectation is based purely off the historical behavior 2 weeks after weekly VIX has closed above my tweaked bands, which it did 2 weeks ago. So I'm looking for the tradeable rally.

Frankly though......who ever knows these things for sure? No-one!

The market will have its way with us, and all we can do is control our entries and exits relative to the plan.

I've got my own plan; continue to trade futures in scalp fashion while I average into some swing positions.....and that's whether it dumps, trades sideways, or rallies. I don't normally average in, as you know, but I think it's a good strategy given the technical circumstances. Yes, we may sell hard for a few days......but this dip.....however big it is......is a buying opp in my humble opinion.

Thank you Spike. Your tone is not the raging bull I've heard in the past. This is options expiry week, and I look for most of the violence to occur Monday through Wednesday. Of course, I could be wrong, too.

Thanks for posting!

[spikefader]

Thank you Spike. Your tone is not the raging bull I've heard in the past. This is options expiry week, and I look for most of the violence to occur Monday through Wednesday. Of course, I could be wrong, too.

Thanks for posting!

Yes, I'm much less immediately bullish than I was on Wednesday. The last 2 trading days saw quite a significant change in perspective. The daily INDU C support got smashed on high volume.......with price returning to just under the weekly INDU C. That price action can't be ignored.

An immediate rally tomorrow will see price back above that weekly C, which should make bulls breath a whole lot easier.

But while Vector is bearish and INDU price under a weekly C, I do see a real potential for selling for a few days......so I'm very short-term bearish. But even if we do see a dip/dump/crash.....it is a good medium term buy opportunity I reckon.........so in that light I'm medium-term bullish.

Good luck this week!

[New-born baby]

Yes, I'm much less immediately bullish than I was on Wednesday. The last 2 trading days saw quite a significant change in perspective. The daily INDU C support got smashed on high volume.......with price returning to just under the weekly INDU C. That price action can't be ignored.

An immediate rally tomorrow will see price back above that weekly C, which should make bulls breath a whole lot easier.

But while Vector is bearish and INDU price under a weekly C, I do see a real potential for selling for a few days......so I'm very short-term bearish. But even if we do see a dip/dump/crash.....it is a good medium term buy opportunity I reckon.........so in that light I'm medium-term bullish.

Good luck this week!

Thank you, Spike. I like to read your view. I'll say this much: when Spike calls out a bear, he's never wrong. I always pay attention to that avatar of yours! I am somewhat more cautious when it comes to the bull side of things, and that may be a real fault of mine. I would say that I am shortterm bearish, and medium term undecided.

[ninner]

I Am A Bear

I AM AN ALL OUT BEAR!!!.....THE S&P is going to 1363....then if we have volume down there we are going to 1224....no time frame but we are currently in a ABC down with us currently building cause to break the B swing point to begin the big C leg.....that is just the way it is.....so get short now.

[spikefader]

I AM AN ALL OUT BEAR!!!.....THE S&P is going to 1363....then if we have volume down there we are going to 1224....no time frame but we are currently in a ABC down with us currently building cause to break the B swing point to begin the big C leg.....that is just the way it is.....so get short now.

Post a chart, Ninner!

[skiracer]

Post a chart, Ninner!

i'll second that one. i need to see something substantial to back that position up.

[New-born baby]

They're right

I'll third it Ninner! Bring it on!

The facts are:
1. The gov't report is due at the end of August. This report will identify which funds are affected, and how much they have lost, via the "sub-prime slime." When that report comes out, the market will react powerfully, I suspect.
2. The Dow, S&P and the Naz are all still in a bull trend right now, and are at support--or slightly below the TA support line, but it is a very nervous market. Support may not hold.
3. The US govt has manipulated the market by injecting HUGE amounts of liquidity into the market. Britain injected the equivalent of $95 TRILLION US into their market last Friday. France injected a huge amount last Thursday. So these gov'ts are trying to keep the bull market a bull market, and avoid a 1929 style crash. In other words, the condition of our stock market is that serious.

I would think that there are a lot of facts that the average investor has not been told. I suspect that a few people "in the know" know that things are much worse than we have been told, and that's why these gov'ts are spending Trillions to keep the market from crashing. It is serious business.

[IIC]

I'll third it Ninner! Bring it on!

The facts are:
1. The gov't report is due at the end of August. This report will identify which funds are affected, and how much they have lost, via the "sub-prime slime." When that report comes out, the market will react powerfully, I suspect.
2. The Dow, S&P and the Naz are all still in a bull trend right now, and are at support--or slightly below the TA support line, but it is a very nervous market. Support may not hold.
3. The US govt has manipulated the market by injecting HUGE amounts of liquidity into the market. Britain injected the equivalent of $95 TRILLION US into their market last Friday. France injected a huge amount last Thursday. So these gov'ts are trying to keep the bull market a bull market, and avoid a 1929 style crash. In other words, the condition of our stock market is that serious.

I would think that there are a lot of facts that the average investor has not been told. I suspect that a few people "in the know" know that things are much worse than we have been told, and that's why these gov'ts are spending Trillions to keep the market from crashing. It is serious business.

I've said that the Gov't controls the markets for a long time...But nobody ever listened so I got tired of talking to myself at various forums...However...they can only do so much...But TRILLIONS???...Where did that come from???

[New-born baby]

I've said that the Gov't controls the markets for a long time...But nobody ever listened so I got tired of talking to myself at various forums...However...they can only do so much...But TRILLIONS???...Where did that come from???

Dr. J Najarian, "Stocks and Jocks" program, Friday, August 9, 2007, on 670theScore radio.

[ninner]

upload error

it says i exceed the upload limit.....if someone posts a chart of the S&P i will comment on it.....but the bottom line is we have a high of 1556 with no volume....what 1.3 billion shares....we went downtown on july 26 with 2.8 billion....hit the B point on Aug 6 with 2.3 billion at a price point of 1427...again pushing lows with volume....that says the stock wants to go lower!!!! We went back up on aug 8 with 2.6 billion shares to a price point of 1503 which is your C point. Now on Aug 9 it failed to even get up the July 26 downdraft day and had volume off of that with 2.8 billion and then on Aug 10 had volume of 2.6 billion at the bottom at the retest...again way too much volume at the lows which says the S&P is breaking a hole in the floor to the next level down....no volume at the highs lots of volume at the lows...its going lower...now A-B=1556-1427=129 and since A to B should equal C to D.....and C is 1503....D is 1379....now if u look at the chart this is awfully close to the March 07 lows of 1364....which it will test..if we have volume at these lows....its going alot lower....that is all i will disclose for now!!!

cheers

[IIC]

it says i exceed the upload limit.....if someone posts a chart of the S&P i will comment on it.....but the bottom line is we have a high of 1556 with no volume....what 1.3 billion shares....we went downtown on july 26 with 2.8 billion....hit the B point on Aug 6 with 2.3 billion at a price point of 1427...again pushing lows with volume....that says the stock wants to go lower!!!! We went back up on aug 8 with 2.6 billion shares to a price point of 1503 which is your C point. Now on Aug 9 it failed to even get up the July 26 downdraft day and had volume off of that with 2.8 billion and then on Aug 10 had volume of 2.6 billion at the bottom at the retest...again way too much volume at the lows which says the S&P is breaking a hole in the floor to the next level down....no volume at the highs lots of volume at the lows...its going lower...now A-B=1556-1427=129 and since A to B should equal C to D.....and C is 1503....D is 1379....now if u look at the chart this is awfully close to the March 07 lows of 1364....which it will test..if we have volume at these lows....its going alot lower....that is all i will disclose for now!!!

cheers

Here's a chart: