Gold Sucks

**skiracer** · 08-26-2007, 08:43 PM

pete, i don't think you can look at it entirely like you have illustrated. if you would have bought the new gold ETF when it first came out for trading at around the mid 40's you would be up close to 45 % right now. so i think it is a more a matter of timing as to when you get in and when you get out. i bought the gold ETF (GLD) at the 46 range right after it first came out and began trading as an ETF and am still holding. as of close on friday the position is up around 43%. so i think it is now more of a matter of timing with whatever instrument you buy for appreciation, especially if you're thinking of any of the precious metals. the mentality has changed from when our parents bought some gold because some friend or someone associated with the stock markets suggested they should have some of it in their shoebox. here is a chart of the gold ETF from it's inception to the present. in this instance gold has proven to be a decent investment over the last 2-3 years. i'm not suggesting that anyone should buy in right now but it has always been a safe haven in poor or unstable economic times.

**skiracer** · 08-26-2007, 09:00 PM

actually if you look at the weekly and monthly charts of GLD you will see that the weekly has been forming a long ascending triangle and the monthly has been forming a symetrical triangle pattern. both bullish patterns. again not saying now is the time to buy but these two chart patterns are both bullish patterns at the present time. i have felt for awhile that gold will go over 700 and at one time awhile back it was flirting with that level. i kind of wish i would have sold it then but it seems to have a strong hold on the present levels.

**Peter Hansen** · 08-26-2007, 09:43 PM

SKi Thanx for your input

Ski I was referring to the actual bullion itself ... a buy and hold propostion .....True your chart on the GLD ETF looks good ........one I like even better is SA ! Run SA Vs GLD over the same period .........you will be amazed !

**Karel** · 08-27-2007, 02:41 AM

Wonderful, wonderful numbers! But do you really want them? Annualized, the gains go like this:

Small cap value: 18.1%
Micro cap: 15.3%
Large cap: 11.6%
etc.

Are you targetting annualized returns like those? If so, my sincere respect. You are more realistic and modest than most. An ETF for small cap value stocks might be your best option.

Regards,

Karel

**riverbabe** · 08-27-2007, 07:16 AM

Originally posted by Peter Hansen View Post

Ski I was referring to the actual bullion itself ... a buy and hold propostion .....True your chart on the GLD ETF looks good ........one I like even better is SA ! Run SA Vs GLD over the same period .........you will be amazed !

Bought some SA this past week. Also have some AAUK long term. Up >30% in 18 months. River

Trading Markets Research 8/24/07
Stocks Down 10% or More: These are stocks that have lost 10% or more over the past five days and are trading above their 200-day moving average. Our research shows that stocks trading above their 200-day moving average that have lost 10% or more over the past five days have shown positive returns, on average, 1-day, 2-days and 1-week later. Historically, these stocks have provided traders with a significant edge.

Seabridge Gold (NYSE:SA - News). SA's PowerRating (for Traders) is 8.

**Peter Hansen** · 08-27-2007, 08:34 AM

River Thanx

River I have AAUK and had SA but ws stopped out ......definitely believe as you do and will get back in this week .

Peter

**Peter Hansen** · 08-27-2007, 08:41 AM

Karel thanx for annualized yields

Originally posted by Karel View Post

Wonderful, wonderful numbers! But do you really want them? Annualized, the gains go like this:

Small cap value: 18.1%
Micro cap: 15.3%
Large cap: 11.6%
etc.

Are you targetting annualized returns like those? If so, my sincere respect. You are more realistic and modest than most. An ETF for small cap value stocks might be your best option.

Regards,

Karel

Karel I got a late start .......had trusted my money to Cabot Money Management, and back in the late 90's lost a big chunk of my money during the 2000 market downturn. His momentum philosophy with no shorting during that period was totally ineffective.........the lesson I did learn is NEVER trust anyone to manage your money .......the only one who is really interested in your wealth is yourself.

**Peter Hansen** · 08-27-2007, 10:20 AM

HELP With a Stock Filter?

Based on the research above I would like to construct a filter for the small cap value stocks described above .....I dont have the expertise to do this .....can this be done with the stock filter on Yahoo?
The Flter Criteria would be:
!. Find a group of Small Cap Stocks which would be the SMALLEST 30% of market capitalization stocks traded on the NYSE, AMEX and Nasdaq exchanges.
2. From the group above find the VALUE stocks , Value Stocks being defined as the top 30% of stocks with the HIGHEST book to Price Ratios.

3. Then from step 2 take the TOP 10 with best 3 Yr average annual yield.

I believe this would result in a killer group of stocks ....any help on this one? ......or bottom line .....what would the final 10 stocks be ? Thanx for any help anyone may provide.......I think this would be beneficial to all !

**riverbabe** · 08-27-2007, 12:06 PM

Originally posted by Peter Hansen View Post

Based on the research above I would like to construct a filter for the small cap value stocks described above .....I dont have the expertise to do this .....can this be done with the stock filter on Yahoo?
The Flter Criteria would be:
!. Find a group of Small Cap Stocks which would be the SMALLEST 30% of market capitalization stocks traded on the NYSE, AMEX and Nasdaq exchanges.
2. From the group above find the VALUE stocks , Value Stocks being defined as the top 30% of stocks with the HIGHEST book to Price Ratios.

3. Then from step 2 take the TOP 10 with best 3 Yr average annual yield.

I believe this would result in a killer group of stocks ....any help on this one? ......or bottom line .....what would the final 10 stocks be ? Thanx for any help anyone may provide.......I think this would be beneficial to all !

Okay, I tried this because I had been trying out Telechart 2007 all weekend. It was easy to find the smallest 30% cap. stocks in the universe. Unfortunately, there is no scan for Price to Book ratios, or for the best 3 Yr. average annual dividend(?) yield, although there is a scan for best 5 Yr. and current. River

**Peter Hansen** · 08-27-2007, 02:12 PM

River Thank You

Originally posted by riverbabe View Post

Okay, I tried this because I had been trying out Telechart 2007 all weekend. It was easy to find the smallest 30% cap. stocks in the universe. Unfortunately, there is no scan for Price to Book ratios, or for the best 3 Yr. average annual dividend(?) yield, although there is a scan for best 5 Yr. and current. River

River if ya have time run it with the smallest 30% and the best 5 yr Yield......I will then take those stox and do some research on them thanx

**riverbabe** · 08-27-2007, 03:09 PM

Originally posted by Peter Hansen View Post

River if ya have time run it with the smallest 30% and the best 5 yr Yield......I will then take those stox and do some research on them thanx

Okay: 30% smallest cap. & 90th percentile best 5 year div. growth rate-- came up with 12.

AHM, SPAN, CARV, TCHC, ELSE, UG, WAIN, EPEN, CPBK, SHBK, CPI, AMRB, FBTC

Then: 30% smallest cap. & 90th percentile best div. yield -- 145 stocks.

AHM, NFI, LUM, HCN, KSW, TKF, NTR, OPX, TELOZ, CRF, LRT, BIF

Hope this is what you were looking for.

River

**Karel** · 08-27-2007, 03:32 PM

Originally posted by Peter Hansen View Post

Karel I got a late start .......had trusted my money to Cabot Money Management, and back in the late 90's lost a big chunk of my money during the 2000 market downturn. His momentum philosophy with no shorting during that period was totally ineffective.........the lesson I did learn is NEVER trust anyone to manage your money .......the only one who is really interested in your wealth is yourself.

Sounds familiar! I started investing (in a fund) just before the bubble burst. I can relate to your conclusion, and that is why I got interested in $$$Mr.Market$$$'s method. It gave me control over my own investments.

Regards,

Karel

**Peter Hansen** · 08-27-2007, 08:36 PM

River Thanx

Originally posted by riverbabe View Post

Okay: 30% smallest cap. & 90th percentile best 5 year div. growth rate-- came up with 12.

AHM, SPAN, CARV, TCHC, ELSE, UG, WAIN, EPEN, CPBK, SHBK, CPI, AMRB, FBTC

Then: 30% smallest cap. & 90th percentile best div. yield -- 145 stocks.

AHM, NFI, LUM, HCN, KSW, TKF, NTR, OPX, TELOZ, CRF, LRT, BIF

Hope this is what you were looking for.

River

River thanx for all your effort ..... ......I will. run some charts on these.....perhaps we have a winner here?

Gold Sucks

Gold Sucks

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