Trolling For The Whoppers

[riverbabe]

UFPT -- a potential Whopper?

This is what briefing.com had to say about UFPT yesterday. It is my POTW pick for the week and also bought some shares yesterday.


UFP Technologies (UFPT): Momentum Radar; strong EPS growth; potential as IBD play down the road; tiny float (9.60 +0.06)

UFP Technologies (UFPT) has been showing good momentum so we wanted to take a closer look. The co makes interior protective packaging using molded fiber, plastics, and foam. For example, when you buy a computer, inside you will see the keyboard, cords, and mouse all neatly packed in pre-cut foam to prevent damage during transport. UFPT makes the foam. The co also makes interior trim for your car, such as arm rests, center consoles and the fiber sheath you pull back when you want to open you sunroof... The catalyst for the big move in the stock was its impressive Q4 results in early March. While revenue was roughly flat at $96 mln, EPS jumped 58% to $0.71 and Q4 EPS jumped 100% to $0.30. The co cited higher quality bookings and a continued reduction in manufacturing costs. Also, the co is replacing lower margin business with higher margin business. Bottom Line, UFPT came to our attention because it has potential to make the IBD 100. Granted, it is still a long way from the $15 Friday closing price needed to make the list, but we wanted to put it on your radar early as these little stocks often get traders to push them if they get close to the IBD minimal level, especially tiny float stocks like this (3.5 mln shares). It's an interesting story even without the IBD angle as it's not a well known name with strong EPS growth. Also, its valuation is attractive even after the recent move as it trades at a current p/e of 10.8x (one est) and with its tiny market cap of $52 mln, it trades at a price/sales of 0.54x. Mkt cap $53 mln, float 3.5 mln, avg vol 52k.

[billyjoe]

River,
Here's a future whopper or at least a junior whopper from Peanuts. MLAB. A tiny company. Check it out, only 3.17 million shares outstanding and lightly traded but it sure looks good to me. No analysts cover it so it could be a while. Might be a good takeover candidate.

--------------billyjoe

[riverbabe]

River,
Do you give free stock tips to boy friends? Don't tell Mrs. billyjoe I asked.

------------billyjoe

Sorry, missed this one!!! The answer is that I have so many boy friends, I don't have enough free tips to go around!!! (And you think I'm kidding, don't you? ). I mean if I gave them all the same tip, it could likely move the MARKET! But if I had a really really good tip to give, I could make an exception for just one somebody who lives pretty close by near a lovely blue spot, if I am guaranteed rolling pin immunity.

[riverbabe]

River,
Got me a whopper! OK maybe it was dumb luck. Did you see the wild swings in the biotechs today? I guess a lot of them reported earnings at the same time. My MATK beat by .03 and raised guidance. Up 20% today. Was way up on it a month or so ago and watched it dwindle almost to nothing, now back to a nice gainer. Have some breathing room now. These bios still drive me crazy.

-------------billyjoe

Nice going billy!!! Bios used to drive me crazy too. Think about it though, they are so subject to trials outcomes and then have to go thru so many approval processes, they are all just a crap shoot IMHO. I try very hard to just stay away from them unless there are mitigating circumstances, like I know someone who works for the company, or they look like a great takeover candidate, or they have a can't-miss pipeline. BioMarin is one of those. I bought it at about 19 last year because of takeover rumors, but that didn't happen. I love the pipeline. Well, now it's at around 30 and I'm not in it anymore. Dumb me. Bailed too soon.

The other one was Medimmune. I started buying it many years ago at the recommendation of some folks I knew who thought highly of the company. Well, you've already heard this story of how I ended up with so many shares because of splits and stuff that I set up a college fund for each of my grand children and it finally got bought out and now each of them has about $40K! Anyway, that's over with and I am staying clear of biotech and sleeping pretty good at night. River

[billyjoe]

River,
Got me a whopper! OK maybe it was dumb luck. Did you see the wild swings in the biotechs today? I guess a lot of them reported earnings at the same time. My MATK beat by .03 and raised guidance. Up 20% today. Was way up on it a month or so ago and watched it dwindle almost to nothing, now back to a nice gainer. Have some breathing room now. These bios still drive me crazy.

-------------billyjoe

[billyjoe]

River,
Do you give free stock tips to boy friends? Don't tell Mrs. billyjoe I asked.

------------billyjoe

[riverbabe]

Time to update

Have been remiss in not keeping this thread updated, so these are my current holdings in my "play money" account. (It's got a fair number of $$$ in it to have the most fun.)

DELL (yesterday) from 24.10 -- currently 24.09
DO from 112.55 -- currently 119.12 (+5.80%)
FSLR from 225.31 -- currently 222.77 but sold Dec. 230 call for 9.40 premium.
GME from 54.17 -- currently 58.23 (+7.46%)
PCP from 138.77 (with MrM) -- currently 150.42 (+8.34%) but sold Dec 150 call for 4.70.
VIP (today) from 35.88 -- currently 36.68 (+2.26)

Riverbabe

[riverbabe]

A long answer to a short question

River,
Although it's not a whopper, F seems to be a possible money maker at 7.88. The chart shows several dips below 8 with a nice gain to follow. It's worked well for me in the past. What do your charts say? Also I think there's a great possibility that we'll all be kicking each other in the future for not buying MSFT at this level. Gates ain't no dummy.

-----------billyjoe

billyjoe, the chart of F does not look enticing to me right now. Looks like it is in a 1 down or a 3 down (Elliott wave) and going lower in the short run. But I just had a long telephone chat with Mimo about this BMW method (which I had not ever heard of) and learned a lot! It is named after Motley Fool user "BuildMWell." This is the link: http://invest.kleinnet.com/bmw1/

It a pretty good predictor over a very long term. If you're prepared to hold over years, you should eventually come out ahead on F, but there's nothing to say that it won't go further down in the short term. And it has MSFT as undervalued right now too compared to its long term potential. (Use the table, click on the 16 year, scroll way down to the end, click on MSFT and see where it is compared to its av. CAGR line. But the stock would have to move + or - 2 standard deviations from there to give you the good return. Actually MSFT would currently have to be greater than -2 standard deviations below that line. That would be the buy point for a long term long hold.)

I would tend to agree with Tim. Buying options might be a better play if you don't want dead money. And, darn it all, CDs are looking pretty good to me right now. I'm really worried about this market going down down down for a long time to come. Am trying to extricate myself from my longs a little more on every bounce. My plan is to keep enough cash to play some shorts and some options, but put the rest safely away for a while.

I know that didn't answer your questions exactly. River

[mimo_100]

mimo,
The fundies are not good unless compared to GM. Ford credit still is making money while GMAC went down the toilet. What's with that? Maybe I'm viewing F's value as if it were liquidated. How low could it possibly go? Bought it at 6.90 a few years ago. The Ford family has a monster chunk of the company and it's not about to become a penny stock.

--------------billyjoe

All good points, billyjoe. Perhaps buying calls would be a good way to play
this issue. What do you think?

[billyjoe]

mimo,
The fundies are not good unless compared to GM. Ford credit still is making money while GMAC went down the toilet. What's with that? Maybe I'm viewing F's value as if it were liquidated. How low could it possibly go? Bought it at 6.90 a few years ago. The Ford family has a monster chunk of the company and it's not about to become a penny stock.

--------------billyjoe

[mimo_100]

River,
Although it's not a whopper, F seems to be a possible money maker at 7.88. The chart shows several dips below 8 with a nice gain to follow. It's worked well for me in the past. What do your charts say? Also I think there's a great possibility that we'll all be kicking each other in the future for not buying MSFT at this level. Gates ain't no dummy.

-----------billyjoe

If your are familiar with the BMW method, when F was at $8.20, the avg CAGR was 16.1% and the Current CAGR was 10.1%. The return factor was 5.1, meaning that if F reverted to its avg CAGR, then you would realize a 510% appreciation. The RMS was -2.58, meaning that the price was more than two standard deviations from its mean. You are correct that this issue is way below its historical price. However, where is the stock the fundamentally?

[billyjoe]

River,
Although it's not a whopper, F seems to be a possible money maker at 7.88. The chart shows several dips below 8 with a nice gain to follow. It's worked well for me in the past. What do your charts say? Also I think there's a great possibility that we'll all be kicking each other in the future for not buying MSFT at this level. Gates ain't no dummy.

-----------billyjoe

[riverbabe]

River I sold NLIA awhile back for a slight loss......decided that since it was just laying there ..........I dumped it.

I do think ASTI may be a buy right now......look at this chart ....MAY Bounce off of its 20 EMA......What do you think ......If it rises on Monday ......I may buy it.

Pete, I see ASTI sitting on its 20 dma. But I am already pretty invested in FSLR. If solar stocks continue upward momentum, I should be okay. If that happens I may trade FSLR for ASTI (less risk/reward), so I'll be watching carefully.

Don't feel bad for me. You did the right thing with NLIA. A long time ago I rode SIRI down too, having faith it would come back, and I eventually made a double. I think you were right about the big time investors in NLIA. Maybe it's a possible buyout, or maybe they're all altruistic. (Now that's an oxymoron.) BUT BUT BUT in the meantime, it's dead money. If the market does a short term bounce, I am seriously considering taking the loss and putting the remainder into a momentum stock to try to recover it. But I won't recognize the loss until that happens. (Spike is probably laughing his head off -- and calling me an idiotic landlubber. And often I am, Spike. None of us is perfect, right?) River

[Peter Hansen]

River sorry About NLIA

River I sold NLIA awhile back for a slight loss......decided that since it was just laying there ..........I dumped it.

I do think ASTI may be a buy right now......look at this chart ....MAY Bounce off of its 20 EMA......What do you think ......If it rises on Monday ......I may buy it.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/print/print.asp?sid=2392889&symb=asti&time=6&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comp=&ma=&maval=&uf=&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=&size=&country=us&o_symb=&startdate=&enddate=&style=320&backurl=%2Fquickchart%2Fquickchart.asp&prms=qcd&default=false&originalstyle=320&originalurl=%2Fquickchart%2Fquickchart.asp%3Fframes%3D0%26symb%3Dasti%26unused%3D0%26o_symb%3Dasti%26freq%3D1%26time%3D6%26style%3D320%26default%3Dtrue%26backurl%3D%252Fquickchart%252Fquickchart%252Easp%26prms%3Dqcd%26sid%3D2392889

[riverbabe]

This week's market

Decided to take some profits while they lasted this week! Threw back some whoppers:
Sold OFG - 5.4% loss
Sold BUCY + 7.1% gain
Stopped out PED - 5.9% loss
Sold ASTI + 6.9% gain
Covered ORCL short + 5.4% gain
Sold CPST - 7.8% loss
Sold CDE + 1.1% gain

Currently still holding
DO from 112.55 (av)
FSLR from 225.31
PCP from 138.77
FEED (don't even ask)
NLIA.PK (don't even ask)

Calls holding:
EOG Nov 85 call @ 3.91
CNQ Dec 80 call @ 6.30