Is $$$MR. MARKET$$$ now MR. MUERTO

[mrmarket]

not a good run on recent picks....

[Peter Hansen]

MR M Great Analysis

Mr M your analyses of stocks is ......EXTRAORDINARY.......Keep up the good work......we appreciate what you do ........perhaps more than you will ever know

Pete

[squarepusher]

I think in some time any picks that didn't turn out as planned will be back up to meet 15% expectations.
________
UGGS

[New-born baby]

not a good run on recent picks....

I thought I heard you say sometime back, "I've gotta start picking stocks with lower P/E's." Seems I heard that from you a few picks ago.

RIMM is a winner. PCP will hit the 15% marker. VDSI, however, is another MFLX. The party is over for the next year.

I think most of your problem is the overall market environment. We are right now at a double top on the Dow, and I think it is downhill from here for sometime to come.

[Karel]

not a good run on recent picks....

$$$Mr. Market$$$, usually I hold rumors of your death to be an exaggeration, but when you start spreading them yourself, I am not so sure.

No, your recent picks don't do very well. When I sort my real money portfolio on return, my own picks using (my approximation of the earlier version of) your method float to the top and yours dribble down towards the bottom. But since I changed the holding method for my picks (I sell losers and keep winners), that isn't saying much. A better comparison would perhaps be my paper "baseline portfolio". It consists of 18 stocks, and every week the 3 oldest stocks (6-8 weeks old, depending on my vacations) get replaced with the top 3 not held from the current top 10 of my approximation. No DD at all. I started to record this portfolio on this website on Feb 28 (it is much older, but sometimes I have neglected it for months). Since then it has appreciated 30.0%, versus SPY 7.4%, QQQQ 19.5%, and IWM (Russell 2000) 1.2%. From this I conclude that your method at least is not "muerto". The highest stocks on the short list it selects are solidly beating the markets these months. The 42% of my "real" Marketocracy fund is a satisfactory improvement on this already very satisfactory result.

Now how did your recent picks do? We start with EXM (Feb 21) and note 6 winners, for +90%, and 4 "not yet winners" for -76%, or 14% net gain. This gain has to be spread over 2.8 runs of reinvestments (4 runs, with an average length of 70 percent of the period), so the average net gain comes to about 5% in 8 months. Which means that these picks underperformed the market in that period, and seriously underperformed my baseline fund of "$$$Mr. Market$$$ inspired picks without DD".

Conclusions are hard to draw. It may just be a bad streak. It may be that a re-analysis of your picks does show up something, f.i. along the line NBB mentioned. I don't know.

Just my € 0.02

Regards,

Karel

[New-born baby]

As a friend . . .

As a friend I would say to MM that when I look at your top five closely, I don't pick those whose PnF target has been achieved, or is very close to being achieved. That PnF, developed by Chas. Dow, (not an idiot), usually is pretty close to telling you when a stock is running out of steam. It is not always right; the upside can be exceeded, and the downside can be exceeded. But I am suggesting that along with your other parameters you might consider that factor, too.

I could never pick stocks like you do. By that I mean, you are good. I often buy one or more of your top five. I bought RIMM, ACH, PCP, for example.

Lastly, market conditions are hurting longs right now.