As you can imaging, there is very little momentum in the market at this time. I just ran my model and the result was less than robust. Hang in there everyone.
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I took a second look at the retrace levels, and I think I was incorrect in my earlier assessment. When I backed out into a weekly chart and covered a broader period all the way back to the beginning of 2023, I saw that’s when the current macro trend actually started. This means we’re still well within bullish retrace levels of that trend. Hopefully that means we will recover faster than I first expected. In any event, we were bound to get a strong bounce at some point because that was a steep decline. I’ll be looking to see if the bounce takes us past a 38% reclaim of the decline. That’s a key Fibonacci level and breaking through that could propel us back into bullish territory. If we can’t break through that, though I would expect another leg down. Then again, technical analysis is great but news rules, so we’ll just have to see.
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Speaking of a leg down... here's a song to feel the Free Fall Friday vibe I'm getting.
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What awesome day to day trade. That’s one of the few good things that happens when the market sells off as rapidly as it did. Eventually it gets so deep into oversold territory there’s a nice spring back for some good short term trading. It’s easy to get fooled, though, and I’ve been waiting to pounce for days now. It looked like it might bounce on Monday, when it gapped down at the open and then headed up almost immediately. The rally fizzled at 7:15am (PST), although there were a few gains to be had. Then yesterday (Tuesday), it gapped up at the open, and looked like I might catch a wave. It immediately faded, however, and got I caught with a few losers. Nothing terrible, though. Then today, it again gave a head fake at the open, and I dabbled a little for another net loss. Then it started basing at the daily high, and I got a little excited. Around 10am (PST), it took the base out, faltered for a beat and then sailed. Made for a great day and a big sigh. I’ll include some NASDAQ charts with annotations so any interested day traders can see what I did. I’ll more often use the futures rather than the actual indexes for signaling, but in this case, I did use the index. Why the NADSAQ? Because I like to day trade tech stocks, which I find are usually more volatile and agreeable for big swing day trades and scalps. Hopefully, you can make out the charts.
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