DXPE ==> The Pistachio Winner

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  • mrmarket
    Administrator
    • Sep 2003
    • 6015

    DXPE ==> The Pistachio Winner

    ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)

    The original members of WWE's D-Generation X (DX) in 1997 were Shawn Michaels, Triple H (then known as Hunter Hearst Helmsley), Chyna, and Rick Rude. While Shawn Michaels and Triple H were the original duo, Chyna was Triple H's bodyguard who quickly joined, and Rick Rude was added as Michaels' "insurance policy" shortly after the group's formation. They officially referred to themselves as D-Generation X and debuted their signature "Suck It!" slogan on October 13, 1997.

    Fast forward to 2025.

    Let’s talk about DXP Enterprises (DXPE) — a company so boring it makes beige wallpaper look risky. Industrial distribution? Yawn. Pumps, bearings, MRO services? Zzzzz. But here’s the thing:
    Boring is beautiful — especially when it’s quietly compounding under the radar while the market throws confetti at unprofitable AI vaporware with P/S ratios higher than the Fed funds rate.
    Today I bought stock in DXPE at 122.17. I will sell it in 4 – 6 weeks at 141.11. Here’s why I like DXPE. This stock is up 135% in the last 12 months and yet its PE is only 24. There’s nothing boring about doubling your money in less than a year.

    DXPE sells maintenance, repair, and operations supplies to industrial customers. That includes pumps, valves, bearings — the unsexy, greasy backbone of civilization. They also build engineered pump systems and offer supply chain services. In other words, if it moves, leaks, breaks, or squeaks in a factory, DXP is probably selling something to fix it.
    They’re like a hybrid of Grainger + Flowserve + your local mechanic — if your mechanic happened to operate at 15% gross margins and pulled in over $1.6B in revenue last year.

    The rest of the world probably thinks this is a commodity distributor that grows 3% a year and dies slowly. Wrong wrong wrong. Here’s what’s actually happening:
    Double-digit revenue growth (YoY), thanks to a combo of bolt-on acquisitions and rising demand in energy + water sectors. Operating leverage kicking in. Incremental margins improving because fixed costs are amortized over the growing revenue.

    DXPE is trading around ~13x forward earnings. Meanwhile, industrial peers with worse balance sheets and lower returns on capital are cruising at 17–19x. DXPE has a lot of catching up to do and its business performance will take it to a new and higher multiple. That’s because DXPE is a real company with real profits and real cash flow. They don't need to sell shares to keep the lights on.
    This company is on the prowl for acquisitions but DXPE isn’t buying flashy unicorns. They’re buying mom-and-pop industrial businesses with sticky customer bases and tacking them on for accretive growth. It’s a classic safe roll up strategy.

    So how does this convert to earnings?

    Second Quarter 2025 Financial Highlights:

    Sales increased 11.9 percent to $498.7 million compared to $445.6 million for the second quarter of 2024 and increased 4.6 percent sequentially from $476.6 million for the first quarter of 2025.

    Net income increased 41.3 percent for the second quarter to $23.6 million, compared to $16.7 million for the second quarter of 2024 and $20.6 million for the first quarter of 2025.

    Earnings per diluted share for the second quarter was $1.43 based upon 16.5 million diluted shares, compared to $1.00 earnings per diluted share in the second quarter of 2024, based on 16.7 million diluted shares.

    At ~$122.17/share, $$$MR. MARKET$$$ is paying:
    ~13x forward earnings
    ~0.9x sales
    ~9.5x EBITDA

    Boring distributor? Yes.
    Under the radar? Definitely.
    Undervalued? Absolutely.
    Quiet compounder with acquisition upside? You bet.

    Here’s what their boss had to say:

    David R. Little, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer commented, "Second quarter results reflect the execution of our growth strategy and the resilience and durability of DXP’s business. We are pleased with our sequential and year-over-year sales growth and strength in our gross profit margins. Overall, we are very pleased with our performance and the progress DXP continues to make as a growth company, and we are excited to enter the second half of 2025.”

    DXPE doesn’t need to grow 20% a year to make me money. It just needs to keep being boring and cheap. While Wall Street falls over itself buying into zero-revenue LLM startups, bitcoin, gold and space tourism companies with negative gross margins, I’ll be over here collecting boring industrial cash flows.

    DXPE isn’t sexy. But sexiness is overrated. I want cash. I am HUGE!

    $$$MR. MARKET$$$

    www.mrmarketishuge.com
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$
  • jiesen
    Senior Member
    • Sep 2003
    • 5392

    #2
    Great writeup, and an Excellent pick, $$MM!! I'm in with you at 123!

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