GSL ==> the CFP winner!

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  • mrmarket
    Administrator
    • Sep 2003
    • 6026

    GSL ==> the CFP winner!

    ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)

    The stock market, especially the frothy tech sector, has investors nervously checking for bubbles. AI this and AI that. How about earnings? But away from the flashing screens of Silicon Valley, there’s a quiet, high-conviction play delivering massive value and stability. This isn’t a speculative bet on the cyclical highs of a volatile industry; it’s a disciplined, income-generating asset play priced for maximum upside.

    From time to time, $$$MR. MARKET$$$ serves up a stock so cheap, so cash-rich, and so obscenely ignored that the only reasonable reaction is: “Why is nobody buying this?” Fortunately that ship has not sailed. Right now, that stock is Global Ship Lease (GSL). So today I bought GSL at 33.93. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 39.19. Here’s why I like GSL.

    This is exactly the kind of overlooked, asset-heavy, cash-gushing business that $$$MR. MARKET$$$ loves to pounce on—because sooner or later the market stops yawning and realizes it's been pricing a Ferrari like a lawnmower.

    1. The Numbers Are Stupid Cheap
    GSL trades at 3.6? earnings and a 7.25% dividend yield, while generating returns on equity and capital that many “high-quality” industrials can only dream about. The stock is up 91% in the last 12 months
    Your own valuation sheet basically reads like a checklist of value nirvana:
    • P/E: 3.6
    • ROA: 16.6%
    • ROE: 26%
    • Debt-to-equity: 0.42
    This is a company going up the quality curve.

    2. The Backlog Is So Big It’s an Inflation Hedge… Unlike cyclically exposed shipping line operators, GSL is primarily a ship lessor. This model provides superior revenue stability, thanks to a massive $1.92 Billion contract backlog with major global shipping companies, protecting the firm from short-term market fluctuations.
    contracted revenue locked in for the next 2.5 years, with:
    • 100% coverage for 2025
    • 96% for 2026 and 74% for 2027
    This impressive revenue visibility allows management to de-lever the balance sheet (Debt/Equity is low at $0.42) and confidently return capital to shareholders.
    That backlog alone is worth more than the entire company’s market cap.
    In a world where global shipping lanes look like someone dropped a box of spaghetti on a map—wars, sanctions, chokepoint disruptions, emissions rules, you name it—predictable cashflow is gold.
    GSL has it.

    3. Supply Chain Chaos = More Ships Needed
    This is the underappreciated kicker. The global trade economy is a tariff induced mess and supply chains are now willy nilly.
    GSL Executive Chairman Youroukos spelled it out:
    “Supply chains are less efficient, meaning more ships are needed to transport a given quantity of cargo… and the value of flexible, midsized and smaller container ships is rising.”
    This is not temporary.
    This is structural.

    Geopolitics is fragmenting trade routes. Nearshoring, friend-shoring, and re-routing mean:
    • Ships sail longer distances
    • Fewer port pairs operate on direct schedules
    • Idle capacity globally is near zero
    GSL owns the exact type of midsize vessels that are now the hottest part of the market.

    4. Crushing Earnings, Again and Again
    Q3 2025 was another beat:
    • Revenue: +10%
    • EPS: +17.5% YoY
    • Normalized EPS: +8.3% YoY
    • Adjusted EBITDA: +5.6% YoY
    This is the eighth straight beat. In a cyclical industry, that’s pornographically crazy!
    They’re also quietly selling older ships at fat gains—over $45M in vessel sale profits this year—and swapping into younger, high-reefer, fuel-efficient ships.
    That’s how you extend an earnings runway without raising leverage.

    5. Debt is Melting Like Butter on a Houston Sidewalk
    Shipping investors are used to companies levered to the eyeballs. Not GSL.
    Management has:
    • Paid down debt aggressively
    • Prepaid 2026 maturities
    • Secured a new UBS facility at SOFR + 2.15%
    • Reduced leverage to 0.5? EBITDA
    For a company yielding over 7% and trading at 3? earnings, this is absurdly conservative.
    You’re earning hedge-fund returns with REIT-like stability.

    6. And That Dividend… They Keep Raising It
    The supplemental dividend has been increased three times since 2024—now up 67%.
    The latest raise puts the dividend at $2.50 per share annualized.
    With a payout ratio around 20%, this dividend is not just safe—it's a coiled spring.
    Expect more increases.

    Here’s the value: At 3.6? earnings with:
    • Rock-solid contracts
    • Near-zero idle capacity in the global fleet
    • Rising dividends
    • A fortress balance sheet
    • Continued charter rate strength in midsized vessels
    • Industry-leading profitability
    …GSL remains one of the most mispriced cash machines in the market.

    This is what value investors dream of:
    “Fundamentals go up, share price still cheap, I get paid to wait.”


    At this price, the stock remains extremely attractive on earnings, free cash flow, and dividend yield. This extreme discount, combined with high profitability and low leverage, suggests a classic value opportunity. While the marine transportation sector historically trades at a low multiple, GSL’s metrics are standout, presenting a strong case for a future P/E expansion if a broader market rotation into value stocks materializes. GSL is a highly profitable, well-managed company in a strategic niche. It is trading at a deep discount, underpinned by a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar revenue backlog and supported by a rapidly growing, high-yield dividend.

    There isn’t much more to say, other than my ship will be coming into the pay window and I’m going to blow that foghorn when I cash cash cash!

    $$$MR. MARKET$$$
    www.mrmarketishuge.com
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$
  • jiesen
    Senior Member
    • Sep 2003
    • 5436

    #2
    Originally posted by mrmarket

    From time to time, $$$MR. MARKET$$$ serves up a stock so cheap, so cash-rich, and so obscenely ignored that the only reasonable reaction is: [B]“Why is nobody buying this?
    Yes, my sentiments exactly on this one, $$MM... which is why I had some already, before I picked up even more in the AH today at 34! I'm with you all the way on this one, because....
    YOU ARE HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGGGGGGEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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