The Army / Navy Data Dump

[mrmarket]

Watching the Army / Navy game and I came up with this set of stocks....which ones do you like?

AAUC ACLLF AGRPY ANPMF APA ARGTF ARMN ARREF ARWR ASCUF ATRA ATRO B BBVA BCS BDGIF BKRIY BLX BNPQY BSAC BUKS BVN BWLP BWMX CBKM CBL CDTX CGAU CHBH CIB CMRE CNQ CNXX COHN CSTX CX DAC DB DC DGICA DHIL DIMC DLAKY DNKEY DRD DX EDVMF EFC EFXT EGO ENGIY EVOK EZPW FBP FER FMBM FNLC FUJHY FULT GCT GEODF GLTO GMINF GTX HARL HLF HOUS HSTXF HYMC IAG IAUX ISNPY ITUB JCAP JFIN KEN KGC KNOP KNTNF LCNB LFGP LNC LNKB LONCF LTM LYBC MAUTF MFIN MISVF MITT MSB MT MTA NASB NEM NEWM NGD NLY NMR NTB NTCPF NUTX NWG OCANF OLMA ORZCF OSS OVBC PACS PBYI PCB PFS PL PUK RYAAY SAN SATS SCGLY SKE SLBK SMAGF SQM STRT SU SWDBY TD TGMPF TRIN UAN UBOH UNTC USAS VALE VFF VWAGY WCPRF WF WILC XWIN

[antioch6]

AGRPY looks good, 39.35% cash yield. The earnings are steadily increasing each year. I don't see any negatives. I'm going through them one by one so I'm only at number 3. AAUC had unstable earnings. ACLLF had negative yield and didn't have much to make up for it on the balance sheet.

[jiesen]

Just make sure to keep in mind that AGRPY's revenues are in ZAR, not USD. That's about a 20x difference, so make sure that's taken into account before you see sky-high earnings... that really aren't so big after the conversion to USD.

Also, looking at the numbers available on Yahoo! I see ACLLF's EPS going from $2 in 2021 to $4/shr now. Revenues are projected to grow from $5B last year to $5.5B this year and $5.7B in 2026:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ACLLF/financials/

Doesn't look all that bad to me, but I'm curious what negative yield numbers you've found.... is it the FCF value of -660M you're concerned about? Seems to me like a drop in the bucket, for a complex finance structure that likely will hold up as long as the projected growth numbers materialize.

Not trying to rain on your parade, Antioch. I'm just doing a double-check on your math for you so you can see what you're doing more clearly is all. I'm no expert either, so feel free to check me on mine, too.

[antioch6]

I sound matter of fact these days without being sarcastic when I say this. I did check AGRPY's earnings and converted them to USD when I made my calculation. I used the total revenues of 110 billion zar instead of the 22 or 25 billion zar of net income or even non existent in 2020. That leaves agrpy with only a 7.48% yield or less because of the unsteady earnings.

For ACLLF I calculated a steady 750 million in net income and another 800 million in cashflow from depreciation and amortization on the financial statements. That adds up to 1550 million, maybe, my math is not good. They also have on average 1500-1800 million in capital expenditures from their cash flow statement. In total they are losing 300 million canadian dollars in cash each year. When you go to their balance sheet, they have 700 million in cash and 11.754 billion in debt. Their selling price is 4.35 billion usd, so here is where I get demotivated and even upset because I have to monitor this for 200 stock symbols if we do it right. Actually I didn't even convert the CAD to USD last time when I did a cash yield because the usd was less so it wouldn't hurt the result if it was meaningful. This hurt me when I moved on to AGRPY and I stopped there because I was going too fast. With Jiesen on the other side, I feel motivated to double check and present thorough research, instead of just presenting to an empty internet.

For ACLLF, subtract the 700 million on the balance sheet and add the 11.754 billion, first convert to usd. That means 700 million cad is 508 million usd. 11.754 billion cad is 8.54 billion usd. The selling price is 4.35 billion, minus 508 million plus 8.54 billion, gives a market price of 12.382 billion. The cashflow is negative 300 million, so you have a yield of -2.42%.

Jiesen you are an expert. Remember you bought s&p directly at the low in 2023, how much better could you be? I think you have a lot of experience and even the way you trade in BBVA and SAN proves you are experienced. Imagine someone trying to do something like that on their first year of trading.