EZPW ==> The Army/Navy Winner

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  • mrmarket
    Administrator
    • Sep 2003
    • 6031

    EZPW ==> The Army/Navy Winner

    ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)

    People always had junk.
    Before eBay, before Facebook Marketplace, before your cousin tried to flip sneakers out of his mom’s garage — there were pawn shops.


    You needed cash? You grabbed a guitar, a gold chain, or a power drill that “fell off a truck” and you went to the pawn shop. People thought that when the internet and Ebay became mainstream, no one would want pawn shops anymore.

    Fast-forward to 2025. We’ve got AI, crypto, flying drones, and people still need cash RIGHT NOW. Here’s how a pawn shop works. Someone needs money so they bring something to the pawn shop. The pawn shop gives the person a loan (an amount less than what the item is worth) and uses the item as collateral. If the shop sells the collateral before the customer repays the loan, the shop pockets the profit. If the customer returns before the item is sold and repays the loan, often after his next paycheck, he gets his pawned item returned.

    That’s where EZCORP ($EZPW) comes in. And let me tell you something:

    Pawn shops aren’t going anywhere.
    EZPW is printing money.
    Wall Street still hasn’t figured it out.


    Today I bought stock in EZPW (EZCORP, Inc) at 19.94. I will sell it in 4 – 6 weeks at 23.04. Here’s why I like EZPW.

    WHAT DOES EZPW DO?

    EZCORP runs pawn shops. Simple business. Beautiful business.
    Someone needs cash → brings in jewelry, electronics, tools, musical instruments, whatever → EZPW lends them money. Non-recourse loans. Collateral in hand.
    Banks hate these customers. EZPW LOVES them.


    This business works:
    • When times are bad
    • When times are good
    • When the Fed is drunk
    • When gold is on fire


    2025: EZPW ABSOLUTELY WENT OFF

    Let’s talk facts before I start yelling.

    In 2025:
    • Stock is up ~64% in the last 12 months
    • Revenue growth: double digits
    • Adjusted EBITDA growth: 30%+
    • EPS growth: ~36%
    • Store count: 1,300+ locations
    • Latin America expansion: no siesta here
    This thing is not limping. It’s not surviving. It’s RUNNING PEOPLE OVER.
    And gold? Gold is at nosebleed levels.

    Pawn shops LOVE high gold prices:
    • Bigger loans against jewelry
    • Higher resale value if customers don’t redeem
    • More foot traffic
    • More profit
    EZPW doesn’t just benefit from gold — it weaponizes it.

    LATIN AMERICA: THE SECRET SAUCE

    EZPW used to be a U.S. pawn shop story.
    Not anymore.
    Management has been buying pawn shops in Mexico and Latin America like they’re Pok?mon cards.

    Why?
    • Less competition
    • Strong demand for short-term credit
    • Better growth rates
    • Less regulatory nonsense
    They just added 40 more stores in Mexico and the M&A pipeline is still HOT.

    This isn’t reckless expansion — this is copy-paste a proven model into underserved markets.
    That’s how empires are built.

    BUT WAIT… WHY IS THIS THING STILL CHEAP?

    I’m not one to walk away from Spags, Building 19 and Value Village
    EZPW trades at:
    • ~13x forward earnings
    • ~7x EV/EBITDA
    Their main public peer, FirstCash ($FCFS), trades at:
    • ~18x earnings
    • ~15x EV/EBITDA
    Same business. Same customers. Same junk. But EZPW gets treated like the ugly cousin at Thanksgiving.

    WHY?
    Old corporate governance fears (mostly gone)
    Convertible debt overhang (being worked on)
    Zero hype, zero sex appeal


    This is EXACTLY the kind of stock the ANAL-ysts undervalue.

    DO THE DIRTY MATH
    Let’s be conservative (even though I hate that word):
    If EZPW gets re-rated to:
    • 9–10x EV/EBITDA (still below FCFS)
    You get:
    $25–$29/share from the core business..that’s already past my sell target.

    Then add:
    • Cash Converters stake
    • Simple Management Group interest
    That’s another ~$2/share.
    Now we’re talking:
    $28–$31/share intrinsic value

    Do you see the problem? Because I see MISPRICING.

    CATALYSTS THAT MAKE THIS THING GO BOOM
    You don’t need miracles. You just need execution.
    Here’s what could push EZPW higher in 2026:
    Continued Latin America acquisitions
    Digital / omnichannel rollout
    Debt cleanup removing the overhang
    Gold staying elevated
    Earnings growth doing the talking

    Even if gold cools off, this business still throws off cash.
    This isn’t a meme stock.
    This is a cash-generating machine with junk in the safe.

    Most importantly, this stock is CHEAP.


    To sum it up:
    EZPW is:
    Boring
    Ugly
    Profitable
    Growing
    Undervalued

    These are my FAVORITE kinds of stocks.
    The market likes it enough to have it trading at its high but this high is just a future floor for something higher. The customers need it. The cash keeps coming.

    I am HUGE.

    Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.


    $$$MR. MARKET$$$
    www.mrmarketishuge.com


    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$
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