Announcing the enhanced 2026 Pick of the Year contest! Now with scrubbing bubbles!!

[jiesen]

Perhaps you're right. Let's see you pick one.

OK, here goes. If you want a stock most likely to give you a 50% return this year, it's SATS. I'll tell you why. Musk has ~$800B right now in stock, and that's mostly in XAI/SpaceX (along with some TSLA, too). It's tied up in private equity, but will soon IPO as a new stock, and this is most likely to double over the next 2-3 years, and the IPO, for those in on it is likely to give you a 50% return just in the first 4-6 months. By the time Musk hits $1.2T in personal weath and becomes the world's first trillionaire (in USD), you'll have your 50% gain in SATS. Why? Well, getting a piece of the SpaceX IPO is as easy as buying SATS, since Echostar owns something like 2-3% of SpaceX, and is its major asset. As the SpaceX IPO goes, so will SATS.

There, a 50% return, easy! Just as long as Trump doesn't successfully take out Musk's Space/AI company just to spite him.

[BlueWolf]

What a week for the market, as all three indices rocket launched to new highs. That ended up floating a lot of our picks up, although we still only have four picks in the green. Our leader this week remains Massimo’s ACMIF, which leads the field by a walloping margin. In 2nd is Mr. Market’s BE, which had a very nice week after gapping up on news of a deal. In 3rd is John Henry’s RIOT. Don’t know if we can continue this kind of bullishness for long, but let’s hope it lasts long enough to give us some more green picks.

[BlueWolf]

Some good news this week. All three indices were up which floated a number of our picks to the upside with four picks now in the green. In 1st place, having already doubled, is Massimo’s amazing ACMIF. In 2nd place is Mr. Market’s pick BE, which took a nice bounce to the upside. Finally, in 3rd place is John Henry’s RIOT, another pick with some spring in its step. Keep up the good work, pickers.

[mrmarket]

To that point... yes it takes patience, but no I don't do it all and stay on top of it all the time, either. I do struggle with keeping up with everything, and if you hadn't noticed I follow $$MM to the letter, not only because he's the best there is at what he does, but because I know doing all the work to find these picks takes time and effort that I am simply not capable of putting in, while doing all the other things I need to do - like feeding myself and my family and treating my own war wounds (I served during the Gulf War and have nobody but myself to look after my bad foot). So yeah, I do miss a lot of the news, but I do log in and check what's going on right here every day no matter what, since trading these growth/momentum stocks is the one sure way that I know to beat the S&P over time. Not that I wouldn't like to be on top of it all... who wouldn't? I'll take on the challenge and go find a pick now and then, especially when I get a day or two off from the grind to go stock hunting... so stay tuned for more, I'll let y'all know what I find when I find it! A word of caution though, whatever I do come up with, definitely take it with a grain of salt, and do your own research before you make any trades. Whatever I pick tends to underperform the $$MM picks over time, so keep that in mind and act accordingly.

Thank you for your service Jason.

[jiesen]

......

I just wish there was a simple way to trade stocks straightforward on a short term time frame (a few minutes). And to Jiesen I want to know how you find the patience to trade all your stocks without neglecting the day to day news. You seem on top of the A.I. trade and you are at the front of the news with Louetta.

To that point... yes it takes patience, but no I don't do it all and stay on top of it all the time, either. I do struggle with keeping up with everything, and if you hadn't noticed I follow $$MM to the letter, not only because he's the best there is at what he does, but because I know doing all the work to find these picks takes time and effort that I am simply not capable of putting in, while doing all the other things I need to do - like feeding myself and my family and treating my own war wounds (I served during the Gulf War and have nobody but myself to look after my bad foot). So yeah, I do miss a lot of the news, but I do log in and check what's going on right here every day no matter what, since trading these growth/momentum stocks is the one sure way that I know to beat the S&P over time. Not that I wouldn't like to be on top of it all... who wouldn't? I'll take on the challenge and go find a pick now and then, especially when I get a day or two off from the grind to go stock hunting... so stay tuned for more, I'll let y'all know what I find when I find it! A word of caution though, whatever I do come up with, definitely take it with a grain of salt, and do your own research before you make any trades. Whatever I pick tends to underperform the $$MM picks over time, so keep that in mind and act accordingly.

[antioch6]

I've been trying to time the market short term and it hasn't worked out besides going breakeven. I want to tell my mom to buy into the market on a pullback but there are so many opinions about how far it'll go, with the most reasonable to me being the idea that we could spike over 40 on the Vix and that would create maybe a buying opportunity. I've seen both sides of the arguments and although I agree with the ultimate major downturn wiping out the debts from 2008, I don't think that's for a few years now and in the meantime we can continue higher. Or maybe the bullish argument is right and we will just inflate/growth our way out of the debt. There is more talk about the government debt getting too high but Japan looks like it'll be fine and they have the highest debt out of anyone. I guess as long as the government takes care of the housing and goods like in Asia then the people don't care how high the debt is. But what is going to facilitate the next round of stimulus from the public? What is going to benefit?

Back to timing the market short term, it seems hopeless. I literally traded the market short term and watched it turn based on nothing and trade in a range for a while then turn one way based on nothing again. The larger moves trade in synch with the news but you can't rely on news because eventually there will be no news and it will just trade in a range again. So when looking for something sustainable that trades in either direction, you find a sideways range. You have to wait long periods of time and that gives you stress. When you trade on momentum, it shifts suddenly without warning and based on my experience trades in a tight range where everyone trading on the smallest momentum gets cut up.

What I really want to know, is how Louetta takes P/e ratio into consideration. Are you still buying ORCL now that the p/e has come down and nothing else has changed? I am basically losing all my income $3,000 dollars at a time trading the s&p futures short term (0.25 point holding times, split second holding times). I really believe I would do better trading options.

If I had more money I would be trading stock. The last time I had close to a million dollars I was buying SSRM. I sold at a 10% loss from $24 to $21.50 and guess what. It went down to $5. And at the same time gold went up 100%. Can anyone explain that one to me? And on top of that it actually came back from $5 all the way up to $24 again. It's basically because of that trade that I'm obsessed with timing the market and finding the right P/e ratio. Anything can literally happen with manipulation of the news like we saw with Covid that the price of a stock long term can be anything.

But timing the market short term using technical analysis just fails when everyone is trading real-time and actively reversing on whatever strategy the last person is using. You can buy high, and you can buy low, but if you are the last one in, the rest of the traders will try to push the price down until your stop loss is hit, or until someone else give up on buying before you do. It depends on the news after that. I can see this story playing out every time, literally every time I try short term trading. You can see everyone's orders in the order que, then you notice a balance of buyers and sellers right before you enter the market. Like there will be 9 buyers on the bid and 9 sellers on the ask at a certain spread. Then the next wider spread will also have a balance, maybe 11 sellers on the ask and 11 buyers on the bid. But if you go in either side, everyone will now see an extra space on someone's order. If you buy there will be a seller missing, and if you do sell, there will be a buyer missing. So if you buy there would now be instead of 9 sellers on the ask, there would be 8 sellers on the ask and 9 buyers on the bid. Everyone will know that someone is last there and they are buying at the market, and everyone else is trading sideways. The entire market immediately goes down 2 points based on this. After that it starts vacillating between a few points higher and lower, and several points higher and lower, until someone gives up, and someone's place is taken. If you don't give in, then you create a short term imbalance in the leverage of the market, and everything moves in your favor for a short term, until someone trades against you based on news. This is essentially how the market works short term. Effectively someone is traded out of their future.

Sentiment is pretty bearish now, but there is no positive news catalyst that will drive the market higher. The last news in a while was the A.I. growth in 2023, and that didn't really get going until the Federal Reserve promised no more rate hikes in November 2023. So now it's the opposite side, the markets are much higher, A.I. is coming out with negative news, and the Fed is signalling it won't be cutting rates anymore. I have to side with Warren Buffet at this time because it looks like it's a good time to buy stocks short term, but it's still a bad time to buy businesses long term.

The companies that come to mind all have high P/e ratios, but that can continue if there is a market to support them. I will calmly wait until the market does finally crash in 3-6 years time to have my mom and brother buy stocks on the lows. In the meantime I'll buy the Marketsmith service and monitor for stocks that will be good buys when the P/e finally does come back down. After a 50% risefrom where I wanted to short it I like DASH now, but I think it's P/e is too high at 75 even if it is growing at 20-50% a year. I just ordered $50 dollars of Chipotle for delivery and felt bad when I saw the thin drug addicted probably prostitution addicted delivery driver walking to my door just 20 minutes after I had ordered it. I felt better when I tipped him 15% which I read was standard but only came out to $5. I guess this is acceptable based on my days working in a plastic factory and making $5 dollars an hour. Or maybe I will continue a thread where Karel left off and pick the top 3 MrMarket like stocks each week. Either way, I will be entertained and will find enough money for what I need.

I just wish there was a simple way to trade stocks straightforward on a short term time frame (a few minutes). And to Jiesen I want to know how you find the patience to trade all your stocks without neglecting the day to day news. You seem on top of the A.I. trade and you are at the front of the news with Louetta.

[BlueWolf]

It was another meh week with all three indices marginally down. As a result, we are back to only one pick in the green, which also happens to be our 1st place pick, Massimo’s ACMIF. NXT held down 2nd followed by Minni17’s DLO. Let’s hope this year finally gets a kick start pretty soon.

[jiesen]

Perhaps you're right. Let's see you pick one.

touche! I will do some research and find something better now. PMRTY was evidently not it.

[Louetta]

So you think NVDA has 50% upside or more from here? You do realize this company has a market cap of well over $4T, right? In other words, NVDA will need to reach a $6T market cap or more by the end of the year, to win the POTY. Not saying that's impossible, but seems to me there are lots more picks that are more likely to pop by 50% than NVDA is.

Perhaps you're right. Let's see you pick one.

[BlueWolf]

can you enter me in the contest with the penalty. I want FFTY long, please.

Absolutely. I’ll add FFTY’s with an entry price as of tomorrow’s open.

[antioch6]

can you enter me in the contest with the penalty. I want FFTY long, please.

[jiesen]

wow, from first to worst in one month... can't get much more wrong than I am right now!

[BlueWolf]

Just how bad is this going to get? All I know is that the market took another beating this week as oil topped $100 a barrel (again). This is brutal and most of our picks got clobbered. We did manage to eke out two green picks with one real winner, but everything else pretty much tanked. Our current leaderboard looks like this: Massimo’s ACMIF is in 1st with a commanding lead, NXT is in 2nd, and Minni17’s DLO is holding down 3rd. Let’s see what the new week holds.

[jiesen]

Pop Mart is showing some life today! Maybe by next week it'll be in the green again!

[BlueWolf]

Ugh, another ugly week with all three indices way down. Correspondingly, our picks were down hard with only one pick remaining in the green. This week’s 1st place pick is Massimo’s ACMIF. Mr. Market’s BE took over 2nd with my pick, NXT, holding on to 3rd. I hope I’m wrong, but this is starting to take on the foul odor of a bear market. Let’s hope we get a little rebound soon.