FULT ==> The Canton Winner

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  • mrmarket
    Administrator
    • Sep 2003
    • 6062

    FULT ==> The Canton Winner

    ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)

    On January 28, 2026, the FBI executed an unprecedented raid on the Fulton County Elections Hub and Operations Center. Whether they will find "evidence" of impropriety depends on how one defines the term—as the investigation is looking into administrative errors that have already been documented versus the criminal fraud alleged by the administration. What’s more important than that is that today I bought stock in Fulton Financial Corporation (ticker FULT) at $21.98 per share. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at $25.39 per share. Here’s why I like FULT:

    I’m talking about the mighty, disciplined, dividend-raising, share-repurchasing, margin-expanding machine known as Fulton Financial Corporation. This stock is a coiled spring.

    Fulton Financial Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Fulton Bank that provides banking and financial products and services in the United States. It provides various checking accounts and savings deposit products, and certificates of deposit. The company also offers consumer loans products, including home equity loans and lines of credit; construction and jumbo residential mortgage loans; automobile, student, and personal loans; account overdraft protection; commercial lending products comprising commercial real estate, commercial and industrial, and construction loans, as well as equipment lease financing loans. In addition, it offers letters of credit, cash management services, and traditional deposit products; and wealth management services, including investment management, trust, brokerage, insurance, and investment advisory services. Further, the company owns trust preferred securities; and sells various life insurance products. It provides its products and services through financial center locations, as well as through a network of automated teller machines, telephone banking, mobile banking, and online banking. Fulton Financial Corporation was founded in 1882 and is headquartered in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. That’s where Franklin & Marshall college is.

    The 2025–2026 outlook for U.S. community banks is STRONG. This sector is shifting from “balance sheet defense” to “growth mode.” Net interest margins are expanding. Funding costs are stabilizing. High-yielding assets are replacing low-yield paper from the pandemic era. The profit machine is restarting.

    S&P Global expects stronger earnings across the space. Loan balances are already growing ~5%. Lower interest rates are stimulating lending demand. Affordable housing. Small business.
    Community banks are about to flex and FULT is one of the cleanest, best-capitalized operators in the group.

    Let’s talk numbers. 2025 operating EPS: $2.16. Up 17% year-over-year. Fourth quarter operating EPS: $0.55. Beat estimates by $0.04.
    • Net interest income? Up.
    • Deposits? Up $257 million in the quarter.
    • Loans? Up $103 million.
    • Non-performing assets? DOWN to 0.58%.
    This is not a bank limping through uncertainty. This is a bank executing.

    Management issued detailed 2026 guidance:
    • Net interest income: $1.120B–$1.140B
    • Operating expense: $800M–$835M



    This is a bank forecasting confidently into a lower-rate environment — and STILL expanding margins. Why? Because funding costs are falling faster than asset yields. Deposit cost finished December at 1.80%, 6 basis points lower than quarterly average. Deposit growth is accelerating — including 25% YoY growth in consumer DDA account openings. When deposits grow faster than loans, funding flexibility improves. When funding costs fall, margins expand. When margins expand, earnings accelerate.

    FULT is acquiring Blue Foundry Bancorp in an all-stock deal. Accretive to first full-year earnings by over 5%. Immediately accretive to tangible book value. Northern New Jersey expansion. Management expects closing early Q2 2026. The board is very confident of the near term future. Dividend increased to $0.19 per share. $150 MILLION 2026 share repurchase program authorized. They repurchased shares in Q4 at $18.34 average. You know what that tells me? Management believes intrinsic value is higher than the current price. And when a bank trading near book value begins shrinking share count while earnings expand…
    EPS moves. Multiples expand and stock price follows.


    2025 operating EPS: $2.16 2026 likely higher due to loan growth normalization + merger accretion. At $21.98, FULT trades around 10x earnings. Community banks with expanding margins and visible loan growth trade 11–13x. Apply just 11.75x to a forward $2.16–$2.25 EPS base. You’re at $25+. Add buybacks reducing share count. Add improving NIM. Add mid-single-digit loan growth return. $25.39 is not aggressive, it’s a layup.

    Community banks have some macro tailwinds:
    • AI investment
    • Cybersecurity upgrades
    • Digital modernization


    FULT now operates in five strong diversified markets and more than 200 financial centers:
    • Pennsylvania
    • Maryland
    • Delaware
    • New Jersey
    • Virginia


    The 2025-2026 outlook for U.S. community banks is BLAZING HOT. Fulton is swallowing Blue Foundry Bancorp in an all-stock transaction that is immediately accretive to tangible book value. This isn't just a merger; it’s a land grab in Northern New Jersey. CEO Curtis Myers is planting the Fulton flag in the most lucrative markets and doing it with surgical precision.

    Look at the Q4 2025 results. While other banks were shaking in their boots, Fulton was dropping RECORD operating earnings per share of $2.16 for the year. Customer demand deposits grew 25% YOY. People trust this bank. The market is about to realize that the Blue Foundry close in Q2 is a guaranteed winner. CFO Richard Kraemer is a wizard. He’s lowered expense targets while increasing NII guidance. We are looking at a leaner, meaner, profit-generating machine.

    I might just have to open a savings account at Fulton with all of the quatloops I’m going to make on this trade.

    I am HUGE!

    $$$MR. MARKET$$$
    www.mrmarketishuge.com
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$
  • jiesen
    Senior Member
    • Sep 2003
    • 5495

    #2
    Fantastic writeup, and an excellent pick, $$MM! I'm in with you at 21.7!

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