FIX ==> The Dodgeball Winner

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  • mrmarket
    Administrator
    • Sep 2003
    • 6066

    FIX ==> The Dodgeball Winner

    ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)

    While people are busy arguing about whether your favorite crypto-token is going to the moon or the dumpster, the literal infrastructure superstars just rebuilt the moon and installed a high-efficiency liquid cooling system in the dumpster. We are talking about Comfort Systems USA (FIX). Everyone loves Nvidia and Microsoft, but they wouldn’t be squidoosh without Comfort Systems. Today I bought FIX at $1367.23 and I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at $1579.52. Now mind you, this is not a typical $$$MR. MARKET$$$ purchase. This stock has a very high PE, but its performance and growth prospects are too good to ignore.
    WARNING: FIX is releasing their earnings after the market close on February 19, 2026. If they miss their numbers, this stock price could take a MAJOR haircut. This is a risky investment. I’m hoping that they won’t miss their numbers….but even if they do, I still love this company! Why?

    Every hyperscale data center needs:
    • Cooling (Mechanical segment)
    • Power distribution (Electrical segment)
    • Modular prefabrication
    Comfort Systems USA (NYSE: FIX) is a premier national provider of mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) services, focusing on HVAC, building automation, and modular construction for commercial, industrial, and institutional buildings. Headquartered in Houston, Texas, the company operates over 50 companies across 184+ locations, specializing in both new construction and ongoing facility maintenance.

    Can you say data centers? First of all, FIX has $9.4 BILLION BACKLOG.


    Last quarter, FIX didn’t just beat earnings; it took the ANAL-yst estimates, folded them into a paper airplane, and flew them into the sun. FIX earned $8.25 per share last quarter. That is DOUBLE what they earned last year. This isn't just growth; this is rocket fuel and they are ready for more. They have 3 million square feet of modular manufacturing space. They aren't building on-site like it’s 1920; they are LEGO-ing the future in a controlled environment.

    The financials tell the story.
    • ROE: 43.6%. (The industry average is 18.5%. FIX is basically a money-printing press disguised as an HVAC contractor).
    • Free Cash Flow: $519 Million in a single quarter.
    • Revenue: $2.5 Billion.

    Like I said, the P/E is too high but you have to be able to stomach this risk sometimes.. At a 57x trailing P/E, the market is finally realizing that FIX isn't a "construction company"—it’s a high-margin technology infrastructure monster. The forward PE is only 45. That makes sense and earnings growing at 4x the rate of revenue, this is a coiled spring. I’m rolling the dice on earnings tomorrow. It could be my ass…but hey, if you want to be a big dog, you have to get off the porch.

    Institutions have to own this stock because it's in the S&P 500 and it's carrying the Industrials sector on its back like Atlas with a gym membership. I’m looking for a massive breakout as we head toward tomorrow’s earnings call.

    FIX IS THE JOHN WICK OF INDUSTRIALS — AND EVERY DATA CENTER IN AMERICA JUST KILLED ITS DOG

    Comfort Systems USA (NYSE: FIX) is no longer a humble HVAC contractor. No. That was the prequel. Today, FIX is the master of the AI infrastructure world, and hyperscale data centers are waiting to be born. When FIX reported a record $9.4 billion backlog, that wasn’t a number — that was Thanos snapping his fingers and vaporizing every bear thesis in a 10‑mile radius.

    COO Trent McKenna basically said:“Same‑store backlog is 62% higher than last year.” Same store. Not acquisitions. Not accounting magic. Just raw, organic, “we‑are‑booked‑solid‑until-the-next‑eclipse” demand. This is the infrastructure equivalent of selling shovels during a gold rush — except the shovels are 40‑ton modular cooling systems. While the rest of the construction industry is out there fighting labor shortages like Gotham PD fighting crime with flashlights, FIX is chilling in their aforementioned 3‑million‑square‑foot modular factory building entire mechanical systems like Bruce Wayne assembling a new Batmobile.

    This gives FIX:
    • Pricing power
    • Predictable margins
    • Insane speed‑to‑market advantages
    CFO William George didn’t mince words: “Our third quarter results were remarkable in every way.” Translation: “We broke the scoreboard.” Quarterly EBITDA up 74%. This isn’t growth. This is a cheat code. It’s like FIX is running a restaurant where every customer orders the lobster and pays in cash. CFO George also said: We will continually buy back our shares… and we get aggressive when the stock dips.” This is “we know our stock is undervalued even at $1300+ per share. They also raised the dividend 20%, because why not. They’re cherry-picking high-margin hyperscale contracts. Quality backlog beats quantity backlog.
    Guidance for 2026: Low‑to‑mid‑teen same‑store revenue growth.
    Margins: “Likely to continue in the strong ranges we have achieved.”

    CEO Brian Lane:
    “We expect continuing growth and strong results in 2026.” To summarize:
    • FIX is in a parabolic uptrend
    • Backlog is exploding
    • Margins are expanding
    • Cash flow is surging
    • Modular is sold out
    • Tech exposure is accelerating
    • EPS is doubling
    • Institutional ownership is 96%
    • Management is buying back shares
    • Revenue visibility is multi‑year
    The stock is trading like a growth tech company because it is a growth tech company — it just happens to install HVAC systems instead of GPUs.
    The 4–6 week target is not only reasonable — it’s borderline modest. This is the infrastructure backbone of the AI revolution. This is the company wiring, cooling, powering, and assembling the physical internet. When FIX starts making annual earnings of $40/share people are going to be going why didn’t I buy that stock!??! It’s inevitable that they will get there. Even a modest beat + raised guidance sends this into the next leg.Remember: Last quarter they beat EPS by 31%.

    Given:
    • 33% same-store growth
    • 62% backlog expansion
    • 74% EBITDA growth
    • $9.4B backlog
    • Strong 2026 guidance
    A 15% move is not heroic. It’s a layup. If AI spending collapses tomorrow, yes — multiples compress. But when I scroll down my Facebook page, all I see is AI this and AI that. While the ANAL-ysts debate whether the future is real, FIX is invoicing it. Buying FIX at this price is like buying Tony Stark stock right before he built the first Iron Man suit. This is steel, copper, chilled water, and cash. I’ll take that cash and laugh at all the millennials who use Chat GPT to write their book reports.

    I am HUGE!

    $$$MR. MARKET$$$


    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$
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