THC ==> The Hernando Winner!

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  • mrmarket
    Administrator
    • Sep 2003
    • 6072

    THC ==> The Hernando Winner!

    ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)

    While the ANAL-ysts you were busy crying into their soy lattes because their"diversified" index fund grew by a measly 1.2%, $$$MR. MARKET$$$ has been out here printing money like a central bank on steroids. Now at 32 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better, that’s what we call "decimating the market," which $$$MR. MARKET$$$ has been beating like a bad doggy. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ doesn’t just beat the S&P 500; I leave it in a ditch.
    But in order to pick winning stocks, you have to stay healthy, so my next big winner is THC. No, not the pot smoking THC. The ticker is THC (Tenet Healthcare Corporation). Today I bought THC at $238.77. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at $275.78. Here’s why I love THC.

    Tenet Healthcare Corporation is a major U.S. operator of acute care hospitals and ambulatory surgery centers (through USPI), boasting a $20.8B market cap as of Feb 2026It operates ~50 hospitals and hundreds of outpatient centers.

    On February 11, 2026, Tenet dropped an earnings report so hot it probably melted the servers at the SEC. While the "experts" were guessing, THC was out here delivering a masterclass in profitability. They smashed revenue estimates, bringing in $5.53 billion—surpassing expectations by over $55 million.

    But it’s the EPS (Earnings Per Share) that really separates the lions from the sheep. They delivered an adjusted EPS of $4.70, which didn't just beat estimates; it nuked them by $0.65. We’re talking about 37% growth in adjusted diluted EPS. Their consolidated Adjusted EBITDA hit $1.183 billion, landing at the absolute top of their guidance range. This isn't just "good performance"; it's a systematic execution of a winning strategy.
    What was the key cog in their money machine? If you want to know why THC is the king of the jungle, you need to look at USPI (United Surgical Partners International). This is Tenet’s Ambulatory Care segment, and it is a literal money printer. In Q4 2025, revenue here jumped 13.8%. But look at the margins—a monstrous 40.5% Adjusted EBITDA margin.

    While other hospitals are struggling with overhead, USPI is leaning into high-acuity cases—think total joints and complex surgeries—which grew by 12.2% this year. Management knows exactly what they’re doing: they added 8 new facilities in the fourth quarter alone. So by adding the highest margin businesses, they are expanding their EPS growth. They’ve maintained a consistent track record of ~40% margins while growing their net revenue at a 15.7% CAGR since 2019. This isn't a fluke, it’s a consistent boring Wheel of Fortune Slot machine where you get a spin on every other slot pull.
    The newest growth hormone for this stock is that THC just inked a deal with CommonSpirit Health. It’s a $1.9 billion transaction to cancel a service contract and, more importantly, give Tenet 100% ownership of Conifer. By buying out CommonSpirit’s 23.8% stake, Tenet is slashing its NCI (non-controlling interest) expenses by approximately $100 million annually. They’re also recording a $885 million reduction in redeemable non-controlling interests on the balance sheet. They’re simplifying the structure, grabbing all the cash for themselves, and using the proceeds to de-lever. Speaking of delivering. These guys have completely cleaned up their balance sheet. You want to talk about safety? Look at the leverage. In 2017, these guys were sitting at a 6.95x EBITDA leverage ratio. Today? It’s down to a lean, mean 2.25x. They retired $1.5 billion in debt due in 2027 and replaced it with long-dated notes that don’t mature until 2032.

    Meanwhile, Tenet is out here buying back their own shares like there’s no tomorrow. They repurchased 8.8 million shares in 2025 for $1.39 billion. They still have $1.49 billion left on their authorization. That means even if the market gets shaky, management is standing there with a giant bucket, ready to scoop up shares and drive the price higher.

    Even after the massive run-up, THC is still trading at levels that make its peers look like overpriced junk. On a price-to-operating cash flow basis, THC is the cheapest in its peer group like HCA or UHS. THC laughs at them.

    Tenet is forecasting 2026 Adjusted EBITDA between $4.485 billion and $4.785 billion. They expect Adjusted Free Cash Flow (less NCI) to be between $1.60 billion and $1.83 billion. When you're generating nearly $2 billion in free cash flow and your market cap doesn't reflect the dominance of your USPI segment, you buy. Management is projecting a 7.6% growth in Ambulatory EBITDA and a 10.2% growth in Hospital growth/cost efficiencies versus their 2025 normalized performance.

    Tenet Healthcare is no longer just a "hospital company." It is a high-margin, ambulatory care powerhouse with a shrinking debt load and a management team that eats ANAL-ysts for breakfast. Revenue is up, EPS is screaming, and the balance sheet is cleaner than a surgeon’s scrub-in.
    I may actually need to go to the hospital when I break my leg jumping up and down when this stock hits my target. I am HUGE!

    $$$MR. MARKET$$$

    www.mrmarketishuge.com
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$
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