AGX ==> The Dominos Winner

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • mrmarket
    Administrator
    • Sep 2003
    • 6092

    AGX ==> The Dominos Winner

    ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)

    When $$$MR. MARKET$$$ gets on the bench press and displays his unbelievable power, people look on in awe. Power is important. Listen up, because the market is handing you a golden ticket on a silver platter, and most people are too busy looking at "flashy" tech to notice the engine room powering the entire revolution. We are talking about a structural shift in the American economy. We are talking about Argan (AGX).

    Today I bought AGX at $655.01, I will sell it within the next 4 to 6 weeks, at $756.54 and quite frankly, that might be conservative. Here is why I like AGX.

    1. The "AI Needs Juice" Catalyst
    Everyone is obsessed with AI chips, but what do those chips run on? Pure, unadulterated power. Data centers are being built at a record pace, and the grid is screaming for help. AGX doesn’t just "participate" in this sector; they own it. Through their subsidiary, Gemma Power Systems, they are the elite "solvers" for the massive electricity demand surge.
    • The Reality: Electricity demand is expected to grow 25% by 2030.
    • The Supply Gap: 104 GW of power plant retirements are coming by 2030.
    • The Winner: AGX is the pure-play EPC (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction) firm that builds the gas-fired plants providing the reliable "baseload" power that wind and solar simply can't deliver.


    2. The Numbers are Absolute Monsters
    If you like "Alpha," AGX is screaming it from the rooftops. Look at these returns compared to the S&P 500:
    • 12-Month Return: AGX 377.8% vs. S&P 11.5%
    • 3-Month Return: AGX 74.5% vs. S&P -8.1%
    This isn't a fluke; it's a blowout. In Q4, AGX reported revenue of $262.1 million (up 13% YoY) and a net income jump to $3.47 per share, obliterating estimates by $1.49. When a company beats the street by that much, the "smart money" starts chasing. That chase is what fuels our 15% price target.

    3. A $2.9 Billion Fortress of a Backlog
    In the world of construction, "Backlog is King." AGX’s backlog hasn't just grown; it has doubled to $2.9 billion.
    "This isn't just a lucky quarter. This is a three-year visibility window into guaranteed revenue."
    While other firms are retreating from the niche, AGX is leaning in with "disciplined execution." They are winning the right bids with the best margins. Their Power segment gross margins hit 29% this quarter. Those are software-level numbers in a hard-hat industry!

    4. The "Fort Knox" Balance Sheet
    Most infrastructure plays are buried in debt. Not Argan.
    • Debt: $0. Zero. Zilch.
    • Cash on Hand: $895 million. With a nearly billion-dollar war chest and no interest payments to suck away profits, AGX has the ultimate flexibility for strategic M&A or to simply fund their massive projects internally. They are the "un-leveraged" king of a high-interest-rate world.


    5. Technical Perfection: The "Gap and Go"
    Technically, the stock is in a Stage 2 Uptrend (the most profitable phase for any investor). After the March 26th earnings, the stock "gapped up" and hasn't looked back. It is currently ranked #17 in our entire database of 5,300+ stocks with a Stock Grade of A.

    The Bottom Line

    We have a company with a doubled backlog, zero debt, $895M in cash, and a monopoly-like position in the most critical infrastructure sector of the decade.
    At a price of $655.01, I am buying a high-speed locomotive that is just leaving the station. With the 15% growth expected this year and a five-year upside potential of 85.6%, the next 4-6 weeks will see a massive re-rating as the market realizes AGX is the backbone of the AI era.

    We're gonna turn it on
    We're gonna bring you the power
    It's comin' down the lines strong as it can be
    Through the courtesy
    Of The Electric Company!

    I am HUGE!

    $$$MR. MARKET$$$
    www.mrmarketishuge.com

    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$
  • jiesen
    Senior Member
    • Sep 2003
    • 5566

    #2
    Great writeup, and an excellent pick, $$MM!! I know this one will hit 800 in the next 2 weeks, so I'm in with you at 670!

    Comment

    • jiesen
      Senior Member
      • Sep 2003
      • 5566

      #3
      Well, look at AGX go! Just the first day, and it's already gained 5% to over $700! Just two more days like this, and we should see a $760+ share price on this one by the end of next week!

      Comment

      • jiesen
        Senior Member
        • Sep 2003
        • 5566

        #4
        Look at that sucker go! Up another 5% to 730 this morning already... just another 5% and we've got our target achieved for AGX!

        Comment

        • jiesen
          Senior Member
          • Sep 2003
          • 5566

          #5
          AGX making another strong move today, and it's back up 4% to 710... will we see it at 760 this week? Let's see it go two more days like this so we can cash out!!!

          Comment

          • jiesen
            Senior Member
            • Sep 2003
            • 5566

            #6
            And it just hit 740 today! Getting pretty close now... could very well be 750+ tomorrow!

            Comment

            • jiesen
              Senior Member
              • Sep 2003
              • 5566

              #7
              wow, from 740 back to 655 already.... easy come, easy go, I guess and we're back to square 1 on this one. Shoulda gone with SIMO- that one hit the 15% and then some! (hindsight being 20/20 of course)

              Comment

              • jiesen
                Senior Member
                • Sep 2003
                • 5566

                #8
                wow, up over $760 in AH today.... let's go see what the earnings came in at for AGX!

                Comment

                • jiesen
                  Senior Member
                  • Sep 2003
                  • 5566

                  #9
                  Oh Yeah:

                  from https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/st...211502098.html
                  Argan (AGX) Q1 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates
                  Zacks Equity Research
                  Thu, June 4, 2026 at 2:15 PM PDT 3 min read

                  Argan (AGX) came out with quarterly earnings of $3.24 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.27 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.6 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

                  This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +43.05%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this builder of energy plants would post earnings of $1.99 per share when it actually produced earnings of $3.47, delivering a surprise of +74.37%.
                  ​Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times.

                  Argan, which belongs to the Zacks Building Products - Miscellaneous industry, posted revenues of $290.95 million for the quarter ended April 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 15.23%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $193.66 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters.

                  The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.

                  Argan shares have added about 119.1% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 10.4%.

                  What's Next for Argan?


                  While Argan has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?

                  There are no easy answers to this key question, ... yadayadayada

                  and from https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/st...220539903.html

                  Argan Q1 Earnings Call Highlights

                  ​MarketBeat
                  Thu, June 4, 2026 at 3:05 PM PDT 7 min read
                  Key Points
                  • Argan posted record first-quarter results, with revenue up 50% to $291 million and net income rising to $46.1 million, or $3.24 per share. Adjusted EBITDA also improved to $56.4 million, reflecting stronger execution and higher margins.
                  • The power segment remains the main growth engine, generating $227 million in revenue and ending the quarter with $2.5 billion in backlog. Management said demand is particularly strong for natural gas-fired projects, which make up about 79% of backlog.
                  • Argan remains financially strong and shareholder-friendly, ending the quarter with $974 million in cash and investments and no debt. The company also raised its share repurchase authorization to $200 million and continues to grow its dividend.
                  ​Argan (NYSE:AGX) reported record fiscal first-quarter revenue and sharply higher earnings, as construction activity accelerated across its power projects and the company benefited from improved project execution and margins.

                  On the company’s earnings call for the first quarter of fiscal 2027, ended April 30, 2026, Chief Executive Officer David Watson said results reflected “exceptional execution across our business,” with all three operating segments posting significant revenue growth and maintaining what he described as healthy backlog.

                  Revenue rose 50% to $291 million from $194 million in the prior-year period. Net income increased to $46.1 million, or $3.24 per diluted share, compared with $22.6 million, or $1.60 per diluted share, a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA climbed to $56.4 million, representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.4%, up from $31.5 million and a 16.3% margin in the comparable quarter.

                  Power Segment Drives Growth

                  Watson said the company’s power segment was the primary contributor to the quarter’s growth, driven by the continued ramp-up of construction activity on recently awarded projects. Power segment revenue totaled $227 million, or 78% of consolidated revenue, with pre-tax book income of $52 million. The segment ended the quarter with backlog of $2.5 billion.

                  The company said it reached substantial completion ahead of schedule on the third and final project of its Midwest Solar and Battery projects during the quarter. It also reached final completion on the 950-megawatt Trumbull Energy Center in Ohio, after previously achieving substantial completion ahead of schedule.

                  ​Watson said the company currently has eight power projects underway, including six thermal projects and two renewable projects. Major projects highlighted on the call include a 1.2-gigawatt combined-cycle natural gas-fired plant in Texas for SLEC, a 1.4-gigawatt Texas project with CPV, an 860-megawatt project in Texas, and a 700-megawatt combined-cycle natural gas-fired plant in the U.S. Internationally, the company continues work on the 300-megawatt Tarbert Next Generation Power Station biofuel plant for SSE Thermal and a 170-megawatt thermal facility, both in Ireland.



                  Watson said demand remains strong for the company’s power construction capabilities, particularly for natural gas-fired plants. He said Argan’s backlog is currently composed of approximately 79% natural gas projects, 13% renewable projects and 8% industrial work.

                  Margins Improve on Execution and Project Mix


                  Chief Financial Officer Joshua Baugher said consolidated gross profit increased to $61.1 million, or a 21% gross margin, from $36.9 million, or a 19% margin, in the prior-year quarter. He attributed the improvement primarily to the power segment, citing project and contract mix, strong execution, the early substantial completion of the final Midwest Solar and Battery project and the completion of the Trumbull Energy Center.

                  Gross margins were 23.6% in the power segment, 11.8% in the industrial segment and 11% in the teledata segment during the quarter.

                  In response to an analyst question about margins, Watson said the company was pleased with the quarter’s blended margin rate, but noted that several major jobs remain in their early phases and still carry execution risks. He said consolidated blended margins have generally been in the high teens to low 20s in recent quarters and can vary meaningfully based on project execution and timing.

                  Industrial Segment Expands Fabrication Capacity


                  Argan’s industrial segment generated $58 million in revenue, or 20% of consolidated revenue, and approximately $5 million of pre-tax book income. The segment ended the quarter with backlog of $225 million.

                  Watson said the industrial segment is seeing increased demand, including from a data center contract awarded in November 2025 for the fabrication of thermal expansion and energy storage tanks. To support that work and position the company for new opportunities, Argan has begun construction on an additional fabrication facility in North Carolina, which it expects to complete later this year.

                  During the Q&A portion of the call, Watson said the company sees a “multi-year runway” for opportunities related to thermal expansion tanks for data centers. He said the new facility is located about 20 miles from the company’s existing facility, which should help with staffing and startup. In response to a question about capital spending, he estimated the investment at roughly $10 million to $13 million.

                  Backlog Slips Slightly, Pipeline Remains Active


                  Total consolidated backlog was $2.8 billion at April 30, down slightly from $2.9 billion at the end of the prior quarter. Watson said backlog can fluctuate as projects are completed and new projects are added, and he reiterated that the company expects to add “a handful of new projects” over the next 10 to 18 months.

                  He said the company believes it is positioned to execute on 10 to 12 jobs simultaneously. In response to a question about longer-term revenue capacity, Watson said $2 billion in revenue is achievable “down the road” as the company’s platform grows, though he emphasized that hiring and training personnel takes time.

                  Watson said the broader demand environment is being driven by rising power needs tied to electrification, onshoring of manufacturing, electric vehicles and data center growth. He said gas-fired power plants remain well suited for reliable power generation and that only a limited number of firms can execute complex combined-cycle projects. Balance Sheet Remains Debt-Free


                  Argan ended the quarter with $974 million in cash, cash equivalents and investments, net liquidity of $421 million and no debt. Stockholders’ equity was $474 million at April 30.

                  Watson said the company’s balance sheet is a competitive advantage because it supports operations, expands bonding capacity and provides customers with a reliable engineering, procurement and construction partner. He said net liquidity remained consistent with the prior quarter even as the company returned $33.6 million of capital to shareholders during the quarter.

                  The company pays a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share, or $2 per share annually. Watson said the dividend was increased 33% in September 2025, marking the third consecutive year of increases. Argan also increased its share repurchase authorization during the quarter to $200 million from $150 million and extended the program’s expiration date to Jan. 31, 2030. Since the program began in November 2021, the company has returned approximately $116.7 million to shareholders through repurchases.

                  Watson said Argan continues to evaluate potential acquisitions that could add to its capabilities or expand its geographic footprint, while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation and project selection.
                  ​​

                  Comment

                  • jiesen
                    Senior Member
                    • Sep 2003
                    • 5566

                    #10
                    I just took half my AGX off the table in the AH, at 764, and will hope to see it open above $774 tomorrow, so I can get even more for the rest! Earnings for this one have delivered, and HUGELY!!!

                    Comment

                    • jiesen
                      Senior Member
                      • Sep 2003
                      • 5566

                      #11
                      I just sold the rest of my AGX at 765... although it didn't open at 775, it was there just a minute ago, but I blinked and so I missed it. Ah well, still got my 15% on this one!

                      Thanks for this most excellent pick, $$MM!! I can't wait to see the what's next!

                      You are HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGGGGGGGGGEEEEEEE!!!!!

                      Comment

                      Working...
                      X