LENS - A Stenz Pick

[stenzrob]

The suspense is killing me.

I posted some expectations for the upcoming LENS report on the Yahoo LENS board.

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077560&tid=lens&sid=7077560&mid=9260

I'm noticing today that the chart is also setting up very similar to how it did for the last report. Look at this 6 month chart.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=lens,uu[h,a]daolyiay[dc][pc50!d20,2!f][vc60][iLa12,26,9!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G

The previous earnings report was August 14th before the open - the stock closed up the day before, actually just barely setting a new high. The report was very good, and the stock opened with a gap up and ran about 33% in under three weeks.

Today, the day before a report is due in the morning, the stock closed near the high of the day, and just barely set a new closing high at $13.95. If the same thing were to happen again after the report, this position could become very profitable, very quickly.

I'm curious if anyone has joined me on this one since I posted about it.

[carribean_mike]

I'm in - Let's hope for a good report in the morning. Picked up a few shares of SCKT also.

[rreferee]

LENS

Stenz,
I bought LENS at $12.76-that's a 9% gain already.


You are also HUGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG!
Great pick!

[mcole74]

I'm in.

Hey, Stenz.

I joined you on this one. Got in at $11.69.
Thanks for the tip!

Wanted to get some SCKT... negative earnings scare me though... no problem with this in your scheme?

[stenzrob]

OOOOPS!

[stenzrob]

I will be holding LENS, they did nothing to disappoint, in my opinion. Revenues were up 90% over the year ago quarter, in the middle of their guidance. EPS also met their guidance.

Analysts may have expected more for guidance forward, but here, too, LENS has given guidance for the next quarter that will be record revenue.

Unlike some others that I have dumped for a loss or stayed out of when their revenue growth fell off (like GORX or CRIO), I will hold this one. My plan is to wait until the initial knee-jerk reaction is done, then look for a good point to add to my position.

[drchrislee]

LENS

Yea, it looks like a good time to buy in or more....unfortunately my money & portfolio is all tied up.

[Mi6op]

Sten, where can I read your synopsis on Lens and why you like it so much. With it being this low I may take a position tomorrow.

[stenzrob]

Sten, where can I read your synopsis on Lens and why you like it so much. With it being this low I may take a position tomorrow.

I don't write a $$$MM$$$ style synopsis. I like it for the same reason that I like any of my picks - very strong revenue growth. Until yesterday, it also had good price momentum.

[Mi6op]

Well I'm in at 10.08 hopfully you can atlest break even and I can take a little chunk of change and start building my war chest.

[stenzrob]

Analyst reiteration

9:30AM Roth reits Buy on Concord Camera (LENS) 10.81 +0.15: Roth Capital reiterates their Buy rating and $14 target, saying the co's recently-filed 10-Q provides greater clarity regarding its change in accounting method for inventory; firm does not anticipate that this adjustment will have a meaningful impact on future gross margins, and as such they expect investor confusion over this issue will diminish in the near future, which could buoy the stock.

I was never confused. Nor were any of you, apparently.
I still plan to do better than breakeven, which would put some of you WAY into the black on this one.

[stenzrob]

from briefing.com InPlay this morning -
9:58AM Omnivision results bode well for Concord Camera - Roth Capital (LENS) 10.55 +0.04: Roth Capital reiterates their Buy rating and $14 target on LENS after a major supplier of CMOS image sensors to LENS, OmniVision, reported Q2 results substantially above Street ests; firm believes that OmniVision's stellar results are a leading indicator of LENS's digital camera ramp for the holiday season; also, OmniVision indicated that its new 3-megapixel CMOS image sensor is already shipping in volume, which could allay recent investor concern about LENS's 3MP product slate.

I'm still holding my position.

[Mi6op]

I'm with you

It seems that Lens is testing its "new" support level of around 10.90 or so. I think the holidays is going to be a wonderful time for the lens folk.

I see they came out w/ a new Polariod camera as well. Its called the Polaroid V35 retails for $20 and is targeted at generation y (i guess that's me i'm 22 and like cheap yet quality stuff). It has a wide range of abbilites for the $20 price tag and should move well this christmas.

[stocks54]

Strenz,

Which stock do you suggest the most. LENS or QVDX? The reason I am asking is I know you mentioned that QVDX has great potential. I am not how the equation changes with the possible QVDX/RWAV merger?

Thanks for sharing your insights.

Regards.

[stenzrob]

Strenz,

Which stock do you suggest the most. LENS or QVDX? The reason I am asking is I know you mentioned that QVDX has great potential. I am not how the equation changes with the possible QVDX/RWAV merger?

Thanks for sharing your insights.

Regards.

I like QVDX better; gross margins are higher, so if revenue continues to grow, earnings will grow much faster. I'm also not sure how the equation changes with the RWAV merger. I also still like LENS, and Roth Capital is pumping it again. Great example of how having even a slightly diversified portfolio means I don't really have to decide which one I like better.

6:51AM Concord Camera could be poised for more upside -- B-Week (LENS) 10.30: BusinessWeek highlights LENS due to its digital cameras being at least 50% cheaper than competitors', even though Concord is upping its average price for new high-resolution models from $70 to $100. Michael Kim of Roth Capital Partners says the co's ability to produce at far lower costs (mostly in China) lets it undercut rivals while maintaining profit margins. Mr. Kim expects fiscal 2004 earnings of $0.43 cents a share, on sales of $248.6 million, vs. 2003's 18 cents on $189.8 million. Gary Steiner of Awad & Associates expects the stock, to hit 15 in a year.