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($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)
These are the good old days. You worked 40 years and your kids are grown and they moved out. But your beloved parents are still with us. You’re happy to be able to see them. They are getting older for sure, but they are still healthy. However, they are too old to take care of themselves. What are you going to do? Around the country, people are living longer and longer. 80 years old is now young and most people can expect to make it to 90. Who is here to take care of them? National HealthCare Corporation (NHC Ticker) that’s who! Put down whatever overpriced tech meme stock you’re bag-holding right now, because I am about to lay down a no-holds-barred thesis on a hidden-gem juggernaut that is primed to violently rip to the upside.
That’s right. Today I bought National HealthCare Corporation ($NHC) at $222.28 and will sell it within 4 to 6 weeks at $256.74. Here’s why I like NHC:
This stock has zoomed up 130% in the last 12 months yet its PE is still only 28. It has grown its earnings year after year after year. The market has completely missed the forest for the trees on this one. While Wall Street ANAL-ysts sit on their hands—literally ZERO mainstream Wall Street coverage on this $3.5B monster—we are looking at an operational cash machine that is crushing earnings, hiding hundreds of millions in real estate equity, and sitting right in the crosshairs of a massive Q4 earnings catalyst.
Let’s establish the baseline: NHC isn’t a speculative tech startup burning cash in a garage. They are a dominant, top-tier operator in the skilled nursing, assisted living, homecare, and hospice sectors.
In Q3, NHC reported killer results (Adjusted EPS up 24.4%, revenue up 12.5%). But hidden in the Q3 footnotes was a $4.48 Million quality incentive Medicare Advantage payment that was delayed due to a internal managed-care timing issue (NHC Advantage).
What does that mean for Q4?
When this news hits, the trailing P/E is going to instantly collapse from ~22x down to 17.8x. The algorithms are going to see a high-growth healthcare juggernaut trading at a steep discount, and the buying frenzy will be automatic. Ha ha ha the AI traders are so so dumb.
Wall Street uses standard GAAP accounting, which forces NHC to depreciate its real estate properties every single quarter. That is an absolute joke. Real estate doesn't depreciate; it appreciates!
NHC owns 7,208 beds/units across its portfolio.
Look at what happened when competitor The Ensign Group ($ENSG) exposed their real estate value to the market back in 2022: their stock surged while the broad market crashed! When NHC’s hidden balance sheet strength gets unlocked or recognized by institutional buyers, this stock will re-rate instantly.
Take a look at the performance metrics vs. its entire peer group:
This stock pulled back slightly from its $232.67 high to $222.28, giving me the PERFECT ENTRY POINT on the dip before the next leg up. Remember my GCT purchase…hee hee hee.
Zero ANAL-yst coverage. Monster 46%+ EBITDA growth. A fortress balance sheet with more cash than debt. $227M+ in hidden real estate value. An impending double incentive payment in Q4 earnings.
This is a slam dunk. I love old people…they keep getting older and the NHC cash window awaits!
I am HUGE!
$$$MR. MARKET$$$
These are the good old days. You worked 40 years and your kids are grown and they moved out. But your beloved parents are still with us. You’re happy to be able to see them. They are getting older for sure, but they are still healthy. However, they are too old to take care of themselves. What are you going to do? Around the country, people are living longer and longer. 80 years old is now young and most people can expect to make it to 90. Who is here to take care of them? National HealthCare Corporation (NHC Ticker) that’s who! Put down whatever overpriced tech meme stock you’re bag-holding right now, because I am about to lay down a no-holds-barred thesis on a hidden-gem juggernaut that is primed to violently rip to the upside.
That’s right. Today I bought National HealthCare Corporation ($NHC) at $222.28 and will sell it within 4 to 6 weeks at $256.74. Here’s why I like NHC:
This stock has zoomed up 130% in the last 12 months yet its PE is still only 28. It has grown its earnings year after year after year. The market has completely missed the forest for the trees on this one. While Wall Street ANAL-ysts sit on their hands—literally ZERO mainstream Wall Street coverage on this $3.5B monster—we are looking at an operational cash machine that is crushing earnings, hiding hundreds of millions in real estate equity, and sitting right in the crosshairs of a massive Q4 earnings catalyst.
Let’s establish the baseline: NHC isn’t a speculative tech startup burning cash in a garage. They are a dominant, top-tier operator in the skilled nursing, assisted living, homecare, and hospice sectors.
- Revenue Engine: Generating ~$1.32 Billion from Inpatient Services alone, plus ~$157 Million in high-margin Homecare/Hospice.
- The Silver Tsunami: Patients are being pushed out of wildly expensive acute-care hospitals and into far more cost-effective skilled nursing facilities (SNFs). NHC’s core business model sits directly in the path of this multi-decade structural shift.
- Fortress Balance Sheet: Cash is up, long-term debt is near non-existent relative to peers. At the end of Q3, NHC had $64 MILLION MORE CASH THAN DEBT.
In Q3, NHC reported killer results (Adjusted EPS up 24.4%, revenue up 12.5%). But hidden in the Q3 footnotes was a $4.48 Million quality incentive Medicare Advantage payment that was delayed due to a internal managed-care timing issue (NHC Advantage).
What does that mean for Q4?
- The missing Q3 money flows directly into Q4.
- The regular Q4 payment hits at the same time.
- RESULT: A massive DOUBLE INCENTIVE PAYMENT hitting Q4 operating income, driving projected Q4 operating income up to ~$39.3 Million and pushing total 2025 operating income to a whopping $134.5 Million!
When this news hits, the trailing P/E is going to instantly collapse from ~22x down to 17.8x. The algorithms are going to see a high-growth healthcare juggernaut trading at a steep discount, and the buying frenzy will be automatic. Ha ha ha the AI traders are so so dumb.
Wall Street uses standard GAAP accounting, which forces NHC to depreciate its real estate properties every single quarter. That is an absolute joke. Real estate doesn't depreciate; it appreciates!
NHC owns 7,208 beds/units across its portfolio.
- Book Value of Owned Real Estate: ~$675.2 Million.
- Actual Real-World Market Value: $902.2 Million+ (based on recent industry sales like White Oak at $90k/bed and portfolio deals up to $117k/bed).
Look at what happened when competitor The Ensign Group ($ENSG) exposed their real estate value to the market back in 2022: their stock surged while the broad market crashed! When NHC’s hidden balance sheet strength gets unlocked or recognized by institutional buyers, this stock will re-rate instantly.
Take a look at the performance metrics vs. its entire peer group:
| Metric | NHC | BKD | ENSG | UHS |
| 3-Month Return | +31.80% | +2.35% | +3.29% | +2.75% |
| 1-Year Return | +131.42% | +82.23% | +15.20% | +3.49% |
Zero ANAL-yst coverage. Monster 46%+ EBITDA growth. A fortress balance sheet with more cash than debt. $227M+ in hidden real estate value. An impending double incentive payment in Q4 earnings.
This is a slam dunk. I love old people…they keep getting older and the NHC cash window awaits!
I am HUGE!
$$$MR. MARKET$$$
