ENVA ==> The Eggplant Parm Winner

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  • mrmarket
    Administrator
    • Sep 2003
    • 6132

    ENVA ==> The Eggplant Parm Winner

    ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)

    Some people might have ENVY when they see that $$$MR. MARKET$$$ has 37 consecutive profitable trades in a row. But they really should be happy for me…and all of the people who read this forum. Do you have 37 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better? You? YOU?? Well…let’s forget about ENVY….we can all climb on board with ENVA! What if you found out about a company that is growing earnings, expanding its addressable market, deploying machine learning, generating roughly 30% returns on equity, and about to transform itself into a bank—and then simply waited for Wall Street to notice?

    Enova International, Inc., a technology and analytics company, provides online financial services in the United States, Brazil, and internationally. The company offers consumer and small business installment loans; consumer and small business line of credit accounts; CSO programs, including arranging loans with independent third-party lenders and assisting in the preparation of loan applications and loan documents; and bank programs, such as marketing services and loan servicing for near-prime unsecured consumer installment loan. It also provides money transfer services. The company markets its financing products under the CashNetUSA, NetCredit, OnDeck, Headway Capital, Simplic, and Pangea brands. Enova International, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

    Today I bought ENVA at $239.99 and I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at $277.19. Here’s why I love ENVA. The stock is up 123% in the last 12 months…that’s like 10% per month if you do simple math. Yet it’s PE ratio is only about 20, even though its EPS growth year over year is 45%. While the rest of Wall Street is staring at overhyped mega-cap tech, Enova International is quietly running a compounding masterclass.
    The setup is basic arithmetic. The stock is floating at just 11x 2027 consensus EPS with a PEG ratio of 0.40. Compare that to the S&P 600 Small Cap Index (14.3x) or the Russell 2000 (23.9x). The market is pricing ENVA like a slow, boring legacy lender, completely missing the fact that Q2 2026 originations surged 27% YoY to $2.3 billion, adjusted EPS soared 33% to $4.31, and receivables hit $5.5 billion (+28%). Revenue is rising from $746 million in 2016 to $3.446 billion on an LTM Q2 2026 basis, while adjusted EBITDA climbed from $118 million to $912 million over the same period. The company has served more than 15 million customers and originated more than $72 billion of loans since 2004.

    All it takes over the next month to six weeks is a modest multiple rerating as analysts digest these numbers and update their models.

    What is really driving all of this???
    1. The Bank Charter Transformation: Enova is acquiring Grasshopper Bancorp (closing H2 2026). They aren't just growing; they're acquiring a national bank charter. That means cheaper deposit funding to crush securitization costs and >15% EPS accretion in Year 1 (scaling to >25% post-synergies). . The strategic rationale includes diversification, enhanced balance-sheet flexibility, broader product offerings, and access to a national bank charter.
    2. Proprietary Machine Learning: 90% of their underwriting models are machine learning enabled, trained on 40M+ data points, driving a 40% improvement in repayment predictability over traditional credit bureau scores. This isn't a buzzword wrapper—it's a high-ROAE (~30%) tech platform disguised as a lender. Remember…AI keeps getting better and better and better.
    3. Massive Upside Runway: ENVA holds less than 1% of the $281B consumer loan market and under 1.5% of the $279B small-business loan market. Small business gross receivables alone jumped to $3.816B in Q2 2026. The upside is HUGE! Almost as HUGE as $$$MR. MARKET$$$ himself!
    At $239.99, the valuation discount already prices in worst-case scenarios while completely ignoring the Grasshopper synergy stack ($125M Year 1 to $360M Year 3). In summary: The company has demonstrated years of growth, impressive profitability, strong technology, expanding small-business exposure, a massive addressable market and a potentially transformative Grasshopper transaction. The market may eventually decide that ENVA deserves a higher multiple. ANAL-ysts have assigned a $292 target using a 15x multiple on projected EPS, which is well past my selling target.

    By the way, Brazil is kicking ass with all of the oil it is exporting…but don’t blame it on Rio…and don’t hold any ENVY…ENVA is good enough for me as I take this once again to the pay window.

    I am HUGE!

    $$$MR. MARKET$$$
    www.mrmarketishuge.com
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$
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