Seeking help the chartists - HES?

[mrmarket]

Just curious what the charts say about where HES will be in the next few weeks....

[Rob]

Rob's 2 Cents

Wow, tough one, Ernie. I'm not really a "chartist," per se, but that's never stopped me from opining. ... Hey, I know a little bit ... come on now. It's right now testing its 50-day SMA, and with recent weakness in oil price, my guess would be that it pierces that 50-day and might find support at the 200-day, which in a few weeks' time might be around 70. Historically, 16 is a pretty high P/E for an oil co.

[mrmarket]

Wow, tough one, Ernie. I'm not really a "chartist," per se, but that's never stopped me from opining. ... Hey, I know a little bit ... come on now. It's right now testing its 50-day SMA, and with recent weakness in oil price, my guess would be that it pierces that 50-day and might find support at the 200-day, which in a few weeks' time might be around 70. Historically, 16 is a pretty high P/E for an oil co.

Ouch...anyone else? Spike, Ski, NBB????

[New-born baby]

Wow, tough one, Ernie. I'm not really a "chartist," per se, but that's never stopped me from opining. ... Hey, I know a little bit ... come on now. It's right now testing its 50-day SMA, and with recent weakness in oil price, my guess would be that it pierces that 50-day and might find support at the 200-day, which in a few weeks' time might be around 70. Historically, 16 is a pretty high P/E for an oil co.

She's coming down, Ernie. PnF likes it to $71, right where Rob opined that the stock would find support. Short any strength because she's going back down to $71 before she heads higher. BTW, when is that ex-date for HES?

[skiracer]

I don't see much in the daily. Lots of room for profit taking especially in this market climate over the last week or so. Sentiment has changed from confidence to anxiety for the most part. Plenty of room for profit taking right here.



The weekly could be entering a 5th wave up which is a stong wave but the anxiety and spectulation as to what the markets are going to and the mentallity right now is carrying everything down with the markets. The weekly offers more hope than the daily for sure.



The monthly offers the most positive view in my opinion. I still wouldn't be a buyer yet but I think it could be in the 2nd wave down and if so would be moving into a 3rd wave up which would offer more optimism. There has been alot of accumulation and whenever you have that there is always room for profit taking and distribution or selling. Does it move up from here. I think so but the mentallity regarding the markets will be the deciding factor right now. If the markets move up the chances of HES following the market direction is good. It is not my cup of tea right now and I would not be a buyer here but there is a decent chance of a move further up from here.

[spikefader]

Some nice bullish long-term patterns. I rate it 67% bullish.





As for entry, the gapfib support was a good place to buy it today, seeing only -2.9% before she rallied to +8.5%, settling to about +6% by eod.



Where's the next good r/r entry for it? Buy 81.04 support with 3% risk to target gap resistance almost +19% for r/r of 6.3. They would be acceptable numbers imo.

[mrmarket]

Thanks guys

[Rob]

Holy Hess Station, Batman! HES was up 8% today on strong volume! Looks like someone is expecting a fine quarterly earnings report.

[mrmarket]

I have a few more shares to unload this week, and I have no idea where it's going. What price should I wait for???

[New-born baby]

I have a few more shares to unload this week, and I have no idea where it's going. What price should I wait for???

$89 is the current resistance, and option expiry is Friday. Hess had a powerful "Low pole reversal" on Feb 7. This indicates (at least) a temporary reversal of the bearish call of $71. The chart is still bearish; PnF still calls for $71 touch; the low pole reversal warns that the chartist that he must at least expect a temporary bullish stock until a strong Resistance is met (here, $89). If HES moves to $95 the chart changes unto a bullish one.

Here's a simple solution for you:
SELL the HES $90 FEB call for this Friday. It will net you $1.95 per share.
IF HES takes out the $90 marker, you get $91.95.

I like that play!

[billyjoe]

If oil goes to $75 a barrel HES will go down. If it hits $110 HES will go up. The charts have nothing to do with it. The charts follow the oil price as does the stock.

--------------billyjoe

[spikefader]

If oil goes to $75 a barrel HES will go down. If it hits $110 HES will go up. The charts have nothing to do with it. The charts follow the oil price as does the stock.

--------------billyjoe

By the powers, blasphemy! Where's me cutlass! lol

Here's a thought though, billyjoe.......does price support and price resistance play a role in price action in HES? i.e. where there has been previous buying support for HES, or oil for that matter, is there potential for more buying support if that level is reached again? And where there has been previous selling resistance for HES, or oil, is there potential for more selling resistance if that level is revisited?

And if your answer to either of those questions is yes or maybe or potentially, then I'm afraid to inform you that charts have a whole bleedin' lot to do with it. Charts are merely reflections of actual or perceived support and resistance levels. You can add any number of indicators to produce some image to yer noggin as to where support or resistance might should be, but the bottom line is that a chart reflects historical levels of support and resistance.......prior places where people have bought and sold.....and real places where they might again, and if you add projected points of possible/potential support or resistance, then ye have yerself potential areas where human reaction to price might occur.

You speak of charts as if it's tea-leaves. A chart is just a record of price. And it always has something to do with it.

[skiracer]

I have to agree with Spike wholeheartedly regarding what he states about the charts. The charts do reflect areas where good entry and good exit points exist and that will drive sharp traders to buy and sell. On the other hand economic factors on our national front, world front, and other geo-political occurences also drive stock and commodities especially oil.
I feel that in present time the price of oil going up or down does affect to a large degree how the markets will move themselves. The markets and oil usually move inversely to one another. Higher oil prices make the markets move down and since HES has direct ties to oil it will move up with oil but inversely to the market. At other times if the market is moving up for whatever other reasons HES being somewhat of a blue chip equity will move with the market in the same direction.
Because of the dual roles that HES plays in it's relation to both oil and the market in general I think the chart is the only way to get a real read on what to expect. Also looking at the charts of the INDU and SPX will give you some further insight into which way the trend is and provide a better feel for gauging the direction stocks or a stock may move. To me the charts are much more significant in making any determination and the generalization that if oil moves up holds water for making a determination but not in the fashion that charts will more times than not with a much more sophistacated decision process and EDGE.

[billyjoe]

I'll bet that if the sultan of omar or whoever controls oil prices says "not another drop of oil for the U.S.A." , the charts won't show it until after the news is out , thus they predict nothing , they only react to what has happened.

---------------billyjoe

[skiracer]

I'll bet that if the sultan of omar or whoever controls oil prices says "not another drop of oil for the U.S.A." , the charts won't show it until after the news is out , thus they predict nothing , they only react to what has happened.

---------------billyjoe

I have to agree with you on that point. It is a two pronged sword but you cannot base your money and trading on news alone. I agree that news and other events move stocks and the markets but how about if on Monday the Sultan states ,"no more oil", and doesn't say another thing for the next month. Do you actually think that his one statement is going to control the price of oil for that entire period. Charts will pick up and give direction after the fact. There has to be something that will provide direction over periods of time that shows what has been going on previous to the present date and something that will provide guidance for the future or what's to be expected to happen next.
I am open to any dialogue and to weighing the points on both sides of the issue. I don't buy into the statement that "they predict nothing. The certainly can't predict what the Omar is going to do next or anyone else but they do and will predict what to expect without taking into consideration extraneous factors such as your example and other geo-political happenings.