MBI R.I.P Bye Bye Ms American Pie

[Peter Hansen]

CNBC this morning 2/4/08 said in a report called "Circle Of Debt" that it would require ....Get The Dugitalis Maude...... 250 Billion or 1/4 TRILLION to bails out the Bond Insurer Mess .

Some important point to remember:

1. Goldman Sachs apparently has a net SHORT position in the bond insurers ....don't think they will be too anxious to bail them out.

2. NY regulators plan an infusion of 15-20 million ......Too little too late

3. Egan Jones Is a company that makes its money by selling research NOT from charging issuers to rate their securities but just for RESEARCH.
Think about it .If an issuer pays MBIA huge sums of money for its bond ratings , do you really think they expect a negative rating?
The Unbiased Eagen Jones gives MBIA a very poor rating.

4. MBIA's ( MBI ) is forever tarnished by this mess.

5. If wall street firms band together to rescue MBIA they will demand insurance compensation for huge lawsuits which are sure to follow.This will surely bankrupt MBIA.

6. Warren Buffet and others may enter the Bond Insurance business, another nail in the MBIA coffin.

7. Unbelievable ......But MBIA uses ITSELF to insure some of the risky bonds on its balance sheet.

8. In 2007 before MBIA took a swan dive MBIA... mangement ....ahem..JUST happened to dump millions worth of their own stock .....leaving the share holders sucking wind !

9. I say time to teach these bastards a lesson ......MY advice SHORT the stock ......or if ya want even better returns BUY the MBI August 12.5 PUT ( MBITV ) ASTA LA VISTA MBIA >>>>>>AND IT AIN'T COMING BACK !!

Of course nothing is sure in life .....but he who fails to take that first step .....will forever spend his entire life on one leg!

[Peter Hansen]

MBIA Class Action Law Suit Filed

On February 1st 2008 A class action lawsuit was filed......probably more litigation to come
Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman, LLC Announces That a Class Action Has Been Filed Against MBIA, Inc. and Certain of Its Senior Officers and Directors

I am sure this is just the "Shot across the bow" ......these crooks fleeced their sharholders........but unfortunately any settlement will be just pennies on the dollar

[Peter Hansen]

MBIA Fitch Says : NOT enough $$$$

MBIA ( MBI ) is in DEEP trouble .......READ THIS

Fitch warns it may cut MBIA's AAA rating; sees more CDO losses
4:54p ET February 5, 2008 (MarketWatch)
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Fitch Ratings said Tuesday that it may cut MBIA Inc.'s AAA rating because of rising losses on mortgage-related securities the bond insurer has guaranteed.

The agency also warned it may downgrade the AAA rating of CIFG, another bond insurer owned by French bank Natixis .

Both bond insurers have raised more than $1 billion in new capital in recent months to support their AAA ratings, but Fitch said on Tuesday that the extra cash may not be enough anymore.

Losses will increase "materially" for MBIA because of the company's large exposure to structured finance collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), which topped $30 billion at the end of September, Fitch said.

The AAA rating of MBIA's bond insurer units were placed on Rating Watch Negative, which means the agency may downgrade within four to six weeks.

CIFG's AAA ratings were also put on Rating Watch Negative because of the bond insurer's exposure to structured finance CDOs, which stood at $9.2 billion at the end of September, Fitch said.

Wow and did ya notice "Losses will increase "MATERIALLY" for MBIA .

That is a polite way of saying ..MBIA is basically "On The Balls Of Its A** )

My Advice to all .......LOCK AND LOAD UP ON MBI PUTS : One choice would be

MBI AUG 12.5 PUT ( MBITV)

I really feel that any CASH infusions will only provide a temporary stay of execution!

[New-born baby]

Here's a play:
SELL the MAR $15 call for $2.50!
BUY the AUG $12.50 PUT for $5.40.
But note that MBI may be putting in a bottom here. The chart is BULLISH!

[Clarkstondude]

Hahaha just as I read this it shot up 1.50, Asians are lovin it.

But note that MBI may be putting in a bottom here. The chart is BULLISH!

[New-born baby]

Hahaha just as I read this it shot up 1.50, Asians are lovin it.

Charts don't lie. CEOs do. CFOs do. But the chart doesn't.

[Peter Hansen]

New Born Thanx Nice play

Here's a play:
SELL the MAR $15 call for $2.50!
BUY the AUG $12.50 PUT for $5.40.
But note that MBI may be putting in a bottom here. The chart is BULLISH!

new Born thanx

[Peter Hansen]

"Equity Short Of The Year"

In an article from "Trader Monthly" Bill Ackman is described as the aggressive short trader who bet on the demise of MBIA ...this trade would be analagous to the New England's acquisiton of Randy Moss.....both brilliant moves.
While most others covered their shorts Bill Ackerman held out, and on December 19th MBIA, The world's largest bond insurer finally admitted it had 8 billion worth of exposure in CDO's .
Bottom line Ackman's game plan is to take the trade the entire length of the field...i.e. he is not letting up until MBIA files for Bankruptcy!!
Warbur Pincus Pledged a $1 Billion investment and the purchase of 500 million of common stock. Was Ackman deterred by this event? ....obviously not as he told the Wall Stret Journal , "Its likely Warburg Pincus will lose their entire investment" I agree with Mr Ackman .

I think it is not to late to make some good coin here .....as I said above ....back up the truck buy the August 2008 $12.50 PUT MBITV , and watch the party begin as the MBIA ship sinks lower than the whale dung on the ocean bottom .

[Peter Hansen]

Weiss Research On The Credit Mess

Mr Weiss is very negative on the whole Credit rating mess ....I am not a shill for Money and Markets .....but Mr Weiss does present a scary but reality based scenario of the whole mess .....read what he has to say in this "FREE" edition .....It may actually save you some money in the long run by dumping your shaky investments now before the collapse! That August 2008 $12.50 MBI PUT MBITV is making more sense as each day passes !

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?NewsletterEntryId=1453

[Peter Hansen]

Latest Update On Ackman's Call On MBIA

Tom Sullivan said this on 2/18/08 about AMBAC and MBIA ...Guys and Gals it would be too long before the "FAT LADY" sings

" I am having a hard time thinking of the last time Ackman exited an investment on the losing end. Management at both companies can do one thing to prove him wrong, produce results contrary to his predictions. To date, they haven't."

[billyjoe]

Pete,
This ratings fiasco is enough to make a person puke. What about the handful of sqweeky clean financial institutions. Is it fair to them to have the feds bail out their crooked brethren? I hope Mr.Weiss is exaggerating the domino effect of the credit collapse. On a sour note, we can expect this whole process to repeat itself in a few years.

----------------billyjoe

[IIC]

Pete,
This ratings fiasco is enough to make a person puke. What about the handful of sqweeky clean financial institutions. Is it fair to them to have the feds bail out their crooked brethren? I hope Mr.Weiss is exaggerating the domino effect of the credit collapse. On a sour note, we can expect this whole process to repeat itself in a few years.

----------------billyjoe

And just who are these Squeaky Clean Institutions?

[Peter Hansen]

No Crystal Ball here

Guys who knows what will happen .......but I would not LOAD on mortgage companies right now ........hoping they will eventually rise up .....sitting on DEAD money is NEVER a wise investment !

[billyjoe]

And just who are these Squeaky Clean Institutions?

HCBK claims to be one. Also the first bank of billyjoe has assets in 4 figures and no bad loans.

--------billyjoe

[Peter Hansen]

MBIA CNBC Charlie Gasparino Speaks 2/22/08

MBIA may be only hours or days away being downgraded....Bottom line not to late to buy the Aug 12.5 PUT MBITV , or for more action the March 7.50 PUT MBIOU . If MBIA downgraded ......GAME OVER KAPUT > Warren Buffet will step in with Triple AAA ratings . Look at the following Video

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=660459946&play=1