Stojakapimp's Candlesticks

[stojakapimp]

Hi stojakapimp,

do you check on what your picks do? And how do check? You could f.i. paper trade the picks you like, to give an idea how you are doing.

Regards,

Karel

Hi Karel,

So far, the only way I check it just by looking at the stocks the next day. I haven't really been keeping track of how picks are doing that I made a week ago and so on. It's something that I've been meaning to do, but haven't really had the time lately. For now, I just wanted to find these patterns and relay the information. I have no idea how well they will work, but they match the descriptions that I've been reading, so I thought it might be good to share that information.

That said, I'm obtaining these stock picks by using some programs that I've written in Matlab. One of these days, I'd like to write a program that computes the percentage of time that the patterns hold true by looking at historical data, finding these patterns, then perhaps seeing how they do in the ensuing week or two. Hopefully I'll be able to do that soon in order to figure out which patterns are truly the best.

Like I said, I haven't done extensive research, but from what I've seen so far, I think I like the Three White Soldier pattern the best. I think the other patterns can be just as good, but you need to be sure that they really fit their criteria.

And what do you mean by f.i. paper trade?

Thanks,
-Josiah

[skiracer]

Hi Karel,

So far, the only way I check it just by looking at the stocks the next day. I haven't really been keeping track of how picks are doing that I made a week ago and so on. It's something that I've been meaning to do, but haven't really had the time lately. For now, I just wanted to find these patterns and relay the information. I have no idea how well they will work, but they match the descriptions that I've been reading, so I thought it might be good to share that information.

That said, I'm obtaining these stock picks by using some programs that I've written in Matlab. One of these days, I'd like to write a program that computes the percentage of time that the patterns hold true by looking at historical data, finding these patterns, then perhaps seeing how they do in the ensuing week or two. Hopefully I'll be able to do that soon in order to figure out which patterns are truly the best.

Like I said, I haven't done extensive research, but from what I've seen so far, I think I like the Three White Soldier pattern the best. I think the other patterns can be just as good, but you need to be sure that they really fit their criteria.

And what do you mean by f.i. paper trade?

Thanks,
-Josiah

taking it upon yourself to start doing something like what you are doing is great. you should provide more of an explanation of what you are trying to do. and jus throwing stock symbols out there and if they do good or bad is not giving much of a reason for anyone to even look at them. but it's all a learning experience and a knowledge base to build off of. the more you provide the better the experience for everyone. good luck.

[Karel]

[...] And what do you mean by f.i. paper trade? [...]

Hi Josiah,

I am with skiracer on this, and that was the reason for my post here: if you do not find a way to evaluate your picks, you are just doing this for the exercise. That would be a pity. You have ideas, you are putting work in those ideas, and that is all great. But the proof is in the results, and you need to work out how you are going to establish those. Ski asks you to be more explicit in what you are doing. That is a great way to clear things up for yourself too.

Results are where paper trading comes in. You could, for example, "buy" your favorite of the bunch at the open the next day. Of course you also need an exit strategy. A number of days, or a percentage gain/loss, a negative pattern, and then you sell at the open the next day. Or you trade at the close, or ...

For comparison, also trade all stocks your screens coughed up. Then you can see whether your human intuition adds something to your program or not. And you need to beat the markets too. S&P500 and Russell 2000 come to mind. Anyway, I do something like that myself and I use Marketocracy to keep score (see the links under this message). But there are numerous portfolio sites.

Anyway, best of luck

Karel

[stojakapimp]

Hi Josiah,

I am with skiracer on this, and that was the reason for my post here: if you do not find a way to evaluate your picks, you are just doing this for the exercise. That would be a pity. You have ideas, you are putting work in those ideas, and that is all great. But the proof is in the results, and you need to work out how you are going to establish those. Ski asks you to be more explicit in what you are doing. That is a great way to clear things up for yourself too.

Results are where paper trading comes in. You could, for example, "buy" your favorite of the bunch at the open the next day. Of course you also need an exit strategy. A number of days, or a percentage gain/loss, a negative pattern, and then you sell at the open the next day. Or you trade at the close, or ...

For comparison, also trade all stocks your screens coughed up. Then you can see whether your human intuition adds something to your program or not. And you need to beat the markets too. S&P500 and Russell 2000 come to mind. Anyway, I do something like that myself and I use Marketocracy to keep score (see the links under this message). But there are numerous portfolio sites.

Anyway, best of luck

Karel

I guess I was just confused as to how this site works. I've seen numerous other threads from people giving their opinions on stocks, many of which don't contains a whole lot of analysis. People just give out of picks and that's it. My analysis is in looking for these candlestick scenarios. I know I don't have any percentages to give you about my success rate or what not, but I don't really see that in any other posts.

I'll be glad to test out the accuracy of these candlestick patterns when I have the time, but I thought that for now it'd be good to at least relay the information. Besides, I'm sure you can find accuracy rates for these patterns somewhere out there. All the patterns that I'm using have been given a "high" reliability rate on a couple web pages I've found, but I haven't done this research myself.

I can stop posting these picks until I have some numbers if you'd all like.

-Josiah

[skiracer]

I guess I was just confused as to how this site works. I've seen numerous other threads from people giving their opinions on stocks, many of which don't contains a whole lot of analysis. People just give out of picks and that's it. My analysis is in looking for these candlestick scenarios. I know I don't have any percentages to give you about my success rate or what not, but I don't really see that in any other posts.

I'll be glad to test out the accuracy of these candlestick patterns when I have the time, but I thought that for now it'd be good to at least relay the information. Besides, I'm sure you can find accuracy rates for these patterns somewhere out there. All the patterns that I'm using have been given a "high" reliability rate on a couple web pages I've found, but I haven't done this research myself.

I can stop posting these picks until I have some numbers if you'd all like.

-Josiah

no don't stop. the criticism was only meant as constructive and nothing else. just give some consideration to giving more info on the stocks you put up and why.

[Karel]

I guess I was just confused as to how this site works. I've seen numerous other threads from people giving their opinions on stocks, many of which don't contains a whole lot of analysis. People just give out of picks and that's it. My analysis is in looking for these candlestick scenarios. I know I don't have any percentages to give you about my success rate or what not, but I don't really see that in any other posts.

I'll be glad to test out the accuracy of these candlestick patterns when I have the time, but I thought that for now it'd be good to at least relay the information. Besides, I'm sure you can find accuracy rates for these patterns somewhere out there. All the patterns that I'm using have been given a "high" reliability rate on a couple web pages I've found, but I haven't done this research myself.

I can stop posting these picks until I have some numbers if you'd all like.

-Josiah

Well, you could be a positive exception And I don't ask you to stop posting! On the contrary! But I *am* suggesting that programs that turn up stocks are pretty useless, unless you have a fair idea how those stocks do. (Do you want to program, or do you want to invest? )

Candlestick patterns don't give guaranteed results, and some quirk might cause your programs to pick stocks that show a nice pattern, but don't follow it up (on average). If you could find a way to backtest, that would be even better, but for that you need comprehensive historical information on a large stock pool.

But of course you can't tackle all aspects of the problem at the same time, and your automatic filtering for candlestick patterns is very interesting as such. Please continue posting, and follow your own ideas!

Regards,

Karel