Thoughts on DRYS/Intro

[UserName]

Hi, I'm fairly new to investing and have been reading some of this forum for a few months. I was wondering what everyone thinks of DRYS? It's taken a beating since earnings came out on May 20, down to $73 from $116. Second quarter earnings come out on August 21 and since the BDI was up a lot in the second quarter, earnings should be very good this time. Here's a little chart:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DRYS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p96346277663&a=142272659

Does anyone think that this stock has potential to go to $100 by that time? The iron ore shipments should start kicking in and the BDI appears to heading back up. Also, the Olympics are coming up shortly and since China is a big importer of dry bulk, I'm wondering if this will cause a slowdown and bring the stock price down? What's everyones take on this stock?

Also, I'd like to take the time to introduce myself. I'm 22 and got into investing in March based on the advice given to my father by somebody with a lot of experience. I had some success with DRYS at first, making a few trades from the low 60's all the way up to $95, but it wound up going to $116. I wish I would have just held the stock, I could have made $5,000 but I was impatient. Anyway, after first quarter earnings came out, the stock went down a lot. After a short recovery, I bought more shares and figured that I'd hold this time because if I would have held last time I would have made a lot more. I also believed that DRYS was a good company so I bought more shares this time. It wound up going from 95-70 in a week or so and I sold on the way down at 82. After some positive news came out, the stock went up again and I bought several times, making a quick profit then I bought more because again I thought it was on the rise again. Last week turned into a disaster though and I couldn't take it. I guess that I have a weak stomach. I'm now down about $11,000 and am looking to make my money back. Needless to say, I felt pretty shitty last week.

At one point last week I had about $75,000 invested in this company. I am young and figured that I should take a chance, well it didn't pay off (for the short term anyway). I do believe that I can make it back, if I buy again and hold. I bet if I held this for a year with that amount of money invested I would make a load back. Any comments or advice on my stupidity, general risk taking, and moral support are also appreciated. Thank you, and I look foward to quality insight and hopefully, breaking even.

[mrmarket]

Hi, I'm fairly new to investing and have been reading some of this forum for a few months. I was wondering what everyone thinks of DRYS? It's taken a beating since earnings came out on May 20, down to $73 from $116. Second quarter earnings come out on August 21 and since the BDI was up a lot in the second quarter, earnings should be very good this time. Here's a little chart:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DRYS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p96346277663&a=142272659

Does anyone think that this stock has potential to go to $100 by that time? The iron ore shipments should start kicking in and the BDI appears to heading back up. Also, the Olympics are coming up shortly and since China is a big importer of dry bulk, I'm wondering if this will cause a slowdown and bring the stock price down? What's everyones take on this stock?

Also, I'd like to take the time to introduce myself. I'm 22 and got into investing in March based on the advice given to my father by somebody with a lot of experience. I had some success with DRYS at first, making a few trades from the low 60's all the way up to $95, but it wound up going to $116. I wish I would have just held the stock, I could have made $5,000 but I was impatient. Anyway, after first quarter earnings came out, the stock went down a lot. After a short recovery, I bought more shares and figured that I'd hold this time because if I would have held last time I would have made a lot more. I also believed that DRYS was a good company so I bought more shares this time. It wound up going from 95-70 in a week or so and I sold on the way down at 82. After some positive news came out, the stock went up again and I bought several times, making a quick profit then I bought more because again I thought it was on the rise again. Last week turned into a disaster though and I couldn't take it. I guess that I have a weak stomach. I'm now down about $11,000 and am looking to make my money back. Needless to say, I felt pretty shitty last week.

At one point last week I had about $75,000 invested in this company. I am young and figured that I should take a chance, well it didn't pay off (for the short term anyway). I do believe that I can make it back, if I buy again and hold. I bet if I held this for a year with that amount of money invested I would make a load back. Any comments or advice on my stupidity, general risk taking, and moral support are also appreciated. Thank you, and I look foward to quality insight and hopefully, breaking even.

Thanks for sharing...

I'll provide two pieces of advice:

#1. Don't fall in love with a stock, it doesn't know you own it.

#2. I haven't followed the shipping industry too closely in the last year, but it is true that a significant amount of tonnage was built in response to the exhorbitant increase in shipping rates a few years ago. All of the shipping companies respond to the same signals. Those with the best contracts make the most money. Do your homework on DRYS. Are most of their contracts time charter leases or spot charters. Where are world scale shipping rates going to go? What is DRYS cost structure like compared to their competitors?

Stocks don't go up because you want them to go up. They also don't go up because its price used to be higher. At the end of the day, what drives a company's stock price is EARNINGS EARNINGS EARNINGS.

[Karel]

Hi UserName,

if the info you give on how you have invested is pretty complete, apart from prices and such, you might be in an ideal position to burn a lot of money. You don't seem to have a plan and you seem to be in love with a stock.

Now don't say you're not in love with DRYS, that you just think that you will be able to make good your losses with it, because that is the exact definition of being in love with a stock. You know you are going through hard times together, but you also know that in the end, it will have been worth it. That's love. It doesn't work with stocks. You can make up your losses with any other stock, with any basket of stocks, with ETFs, or with mutual funds. Your money will look, smell and spend the same as if you had recouped your losses with DRYS.

Now what are you going to do? Chase the next stock? That might set you up for another disappointment. What about a plan? You might want to consider swing trading (build a watch list of stocks, watch the charts, pick an entry, and exit points for loss or gain, and complete the trade. It comes pretty close to what you seem to be doing now, but more disciplined and with more stocks. Or you could go the value way. Or you could go the $$$Mr. Market$$$ way (a combination of momentum and value; I like it and have my own version of it). Look around, study plans, and pick a plan that makes sense to you and seems to be effective. Then start trading.

Oh, and this seems to be a lousy market. It is very hard to stay on your feet: I lost almost 15% in my real money portfolio since my last All Time High on 5/20.

Good luck!

Regards,

Karel