nsc

[ninner]

nsc is ready to be a nice short...i was thinking of buying some puts....dec 50 puts ....any opinion on this strategy??

cheers
ninner

[New-born baby]

nsc is ready to be a nice short...i was thinking of buying some puts....dec 50 puts ....any opinion on this strategy??

cheers
ninner

Ninner, you old rascal you! Great to hear from you again. I hope you are prospering up there North of the border . . . .

$50 puts for Dec? I don't like the trade, and here's why.

Current stock price is $67.97. That Dec $50 put will cost you $1.00. NSC would therefore need to fall to $49.00 for this trade to break even, and lower if it is to turn a profit. That's a 27.94% haircut from current levels for NSC $50 put to break even. That's asking a lot.

If you believe NSC is going to take the haircut, why not buy the $70 DEC put at $5.20--it is only costing you $3.20 based on today's stock price--and only $2.20 if you deduct the $50 put price. In other words, BUY the DEC $70 PUT and SELL the DEC $50 put, and you've lowered your initial investment, but capped your gain to $20 per share. I'll say the same thing to you that Gen'l Gibbon said to Gen'l Custer just before Custer's Last Stand: "Now Custer, don't be greedy." I like that short, esp. if you think the market really breaks down in October, like I think it will.

Chartwise, I agree NSC is going lower, not higher, and I think $50 is a reasonable 2nd target--the first target is $57, with $53 or $50 the second target.

Best wishes to you, Ninner! God bless ya'll.

[ninner]

i may take your advice..im just learning about options i still dont totally understand how it all works....yes it has been prosperous this year.....i have made some decent money shorting PCR and MER....currently i am short FMC .covered abit around the 63 area and waiting to short again as its going to break that support and head into the 50's. Something sinister is going to happan with the markets in late Sept or in october that we have yet to see in the markets...too much trouble out there and yet the market is acting like its not too worried about it...up 300 one day and down 300 the next...its going to get very interesting ....

god bless you also newborn ..hope its been prosperous for you as well.

[New-born baby]

i may take your advice..im just learning about options i still dont totally understand how it all works....yes it has been prosperous this year.....i have made some decent money shorting PCR and MER....currently i am short FMC .covered abit around the 63 area and waiting to short again as its going to break that support and head into the 50's. Something sinister is going to happan with the markets in late Sept or in october that we have yet to see in the markets...too much trouble out there and yet the market is acting like its not too worried about it...up 300 one day and down 300 the next...its going to get very interesting ....

god bless you also newborn ..hope its been prosperous for you as well.

I'd say this to any and all MM types: GET OUT OF THE MARKET BEFORE OCTOBER. I think the crash that starts the "2nd Great Depression" is coming.

Glad to see you are shorting FMC. My sister is a stock broker, and she called about six weeks ago to ask me what she should do about her clients in FMC. I told her to get them out. So far, so good. Left POT before the crash, too.

Why did you pick NSC as a short, anyway? Exposure to Hurricane IKE?

[riverbabe]

I'd say this to any and all MM types: GET OUT OF THE MARKET BEFORE OCTOBER. I think the crash that starts the "2nd Great Depression" is coming.

Glad to see you are shorting FMC. My sister is a stock broker, and she called about six weeks ago to ask me what she should do about her clients in FMC. I told her to get them out. So far, so good. Left POT before the crash, too.

Why did you pick NSC as a short, anyway? Exposure to Hurricane IKE?

NBB, a tech person from AAII gave a lecture a couple of weeks ago and is calling it the "October Massacre." He also says it is coming! The hedge funds and others are currently liquidating to be able to meet redemptions at the end of September. He says buy double short ETFs when the Dow sinks below 11,700 (which it has). He sees Dow 10,200 and 9,800 below that. Riverbabe

I am in cash except for DXD. He also said the "wild weasel" scenario is an invasion of Iran by either the US or Israel by Thanksgiving. Apparently the US sold Israel ground penetrating missiles in the spring this year. If wild weasel happens, buy oil.

[ninner]

no just based on technicals....it broke a pivot point on volume and now is retracing back up on lighter volume....might move abit higher yet but that 62.04 will be retested and based on the monthly volume it will be blown out ...alot of the other rails are showing the same pattern!!!!

[New-born baby]

NBB, a tech person from AAII gave a lecture a couple of weeks ago and is calling it the "October Massacre." He also says it is coming! The hedge funds and others are currently liquidating to be able to meet redemptions at the end of September. He says buy double short ETFs when the Dow sinks below 11,700 (which it has). He sees Dow 10,200 and 9,800 below that. Riverbabe

I am in cash except for DXD. He also said the "wild weasel" scenario is an invasion of Iran by either the US or Israel by Thanksgiving. Apparently the US sold Israel ground penetrating missiles in the spring this year. If wild weasel happens, buy oil.

River,
I think this analysis is right on. I own oil anyway: PWE and HTE. HTE is paying 19% right now; if we get a spike in oil, could see some capital gains, too.

War? By USA on Iran? Very, very doubtful. Bush would not attack Iran with only a few months left in his presidency. But Israel MUST destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, president of Iran, is a nut case. "Our revolution's main mission is to pave the way for the reappearance of the 12th Imam, the Mahdi," Ahmadinejad said in the speech to Friday Prayers leaders from across the country. According to Shi'ite Muslim teaching, Abul-Qassem Mohammad, the 12th leader whom Shi'ites consider descended from the Prophet Mohammed, disappeared in 941 but will return at the end of time to lead an era of Islamic justice. Ahmadinejad is a follower of the Hojjatieh Society, which is governed by the conviction that the 12th Imam's return will be hastened by the creation of chaos on earth.
"Chaos" re: attack Israel with nuclear weapons; start WW III. He is a nut case, and very dangerous. Almost all of his speeches reference this 12th Imam--even his speech at the U.N. He's a very dangerous man. The USA should stop him--but lacks the moral will to do so.

[ninner]

nsc not ready to go down yet...needs to fail that sep 2 bar and is building cause to get in there..im liking my FMC short...its doing a ABC down from the looks of the chart that should take it at this point anywheres from 55-50