F and GM

[gdaniq]

What do you guys think about this, im in at F for 3.35 and GM at 4.84, it has decreased as of 1:30 today, im getting iffy, do you think if I hold on for a few more days I can see a gain after the bailout???

[mrmarket]

What do you guys think about this, im in at F for 3.35 and GM at 4.84, it has decreased as of 1:30 today, im getting iffy, do you think if I hold on for a few more days I can see a gain after the bailout???

It's extremely simple. If either company is going to be around in 2010, this price is a steal. The bankruptcy risk is built into the price.

My opinion is that demand for automobiles has not disappeared, it's just been delayed. People can't get financing and they are afraid to spend money. However, people will never stop driving. In the meantime, their cars get older and older. Selling cars is not a failed business....don't know if F or GM is the answer.

Full disclosure: I am long GM at $5.00.

[gdaniq]

Yah im in for the short bounce, I am hoping to double my money on the short long run and sell out, im probably not gona hold on to these stocks for a long period maybe a week or two, hopefully they will run up to 5-6 F and 6-7 GM and ill sell out. Thanks for the reply. Im kind of new to stocks so im still learning the jist of everything hehe , I also bought some stock in DTG which I bought for 1.28 do you think the bailout will bump this stock also, I have done some research and most sources say this will be bumped if the bailout occurs, any insight? thanks

[billyjoe]

It's extremely simple. If either company is going to be around in 2010, this price is a steal. The bankruptcy risk is built into the price.

My opinion is that demand for automobiles has not disappeared, it's just been delayed. People can't get financing and they are afraid to spend money. However, people will never stop driving. In the meantime, their cars get older and older. Selling cars is not a failed business....don't know if F or GM is the answer.

Full disclosure: I am long GM at $5.00.

But Mr.Mkt, Cuba has been fixing the same cars since 1960 and Castro or his brother are mean enough to last another 20 years. How long can we keep the same cars on the road here?

-----------------billy

[New-born baby]

But Mr.Mkt, Cuba has been fixing the same cars since 1960 and Castro or his brother are mean enough to last another 20 years. How long can we keep the same cars on the road here?

-----------------billy

You can keep any GM engine running up to 1 million miles plus, if you change the oil every 2k miles. The trannies will last to 300k plus, if you change the tranny fliud every 30k. The tranny will last the entire million miles if you disconnect the lockup on the torque converter.

[New-born baby]

It's extremely simple. If either company is going to be around in 2010, this price is a steal. The bankruptcy risk is built into the price.

My opinion is that demand for automobiles has not disappeared, it's just been delayed. People can't get financing and they are afraid to spend money. However, people will never stop driving. In the meantime, their cars get older and older. Selling cars is not a failed business....don't know if F or GM is the answer.

Full disclosure: I am long GM at $5.00.

The gov't could have purchased the entire GM company for under $3B--just buy every share at current prices. $15B will not save GM. $30B will not save GM. Wagoner and his executive buddies have no idea how to handle money. And the UAW--they have made no consessions. Forget the whole USA. It's cooked with this kind of stupidity in charge.

Just think: $85B did not save AIG--hey, they just asked for a fresh $10B to get them through Christmas. Pelosi says we get another gov't check in January. Make mine for $10B, please.

[billyjoe]

You can keep any GM engine running up to 1 million miles plus, if you change the oil every 2k miles. The trannies will last to 300k plus, if you change the tranny fliud every 30k. The tranny will last the entire million miles if you disconnect the lockup on the torque converter.

New Born,
Yes, the engines and transmissions will last longer than the bodies. My kids and their friends find this hard to believe but in over 40 years of driving and more than 25 different cars that I can remember (only 2 new ones) I've never had an engine or transmission problem. They say I drive too slow. Also these cars were of 11 different brands.

--------------billy

[Peter Hansen]

The RIGHT Response!

Anyone who's ever been in an auto manufacturing or assembly plant can appreciate some of these comments regarding the UAW.
Letter To General Motors

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Abridged letter from Troy Clarke, President of General Motors

- followed by a response from Gregory Knox:





Dear Employee,
Next week, Congress and the current Administration will determine whether to provide immediate support to the domestic auto industry to help it through one of the most difficult economic times in our nation's history. Your elected officials must hear from all of us now on why this support is critical to our continuing the progress we began prior to the global financial crisis.. As an employee, you have a lot at stake and continue to be one of our most effective and passionate voices. I know GM can count on you to have your voice heard.
Thank you for your urgent action and ongoing support.
Troy Clarke
President
General Motors North America


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~


From Gregory Knox:
In response to your request to call legislators and ask for a bailout for the United States automakers please consider the following, and please also pass this onto Troy Clark, the president of General Motors North America for me.
You are both infected with the same entitlement mentality that has bred like cancerous germs in UAW halls for the last countless decades, and whose plague is now sweeping the nation, awaiting our new "messiah" to wave his magical wand and make all our problems go away, while at the same time allowing our once great nation to keep "living the dream".
The dream is over!
The dream that we can ignore the consumer for years while management myopically focuses on its personal rewards packages at the same time that our factories have been filled with the worlds most overpaid, arrogant, ignorant and laziest entitlement minded "laborers" without paying the price for these atrocities and that still the masses will line up to buy our products.
Don't tell me I'm wrong. Don't accuse me of not knowing of what I speak. I have called on Ford, GM, Chrysler, TRW, Delphi, Kelsey Hayes, American Axle and countless other automotive OEM's and Tier ones for 3 decades now throughout the Midwest and what I've seen over the years in these union shops can only be described as disgusting.
Mr. Clark, the president of General Motors, states:
There is widespread sentiment in this country, our government and especially in the media that the current crisis is completely the result of bad management. It is not.
You're right, it's not JUST management, how about the electricians who walk around the plants like lords in feudal times, making people wait on them for countless hours while they drag ass so they can come in on the weekend and make double and triple time for a job they easily could have done within their normal 40 hour week
How about the line workers who threaten newbies with all kinds of scare tactics for putting out too many parts on a shift and for being too productive (mustn't expose the lazy bums who have been getting overpaid for decades for their horrific underproduction, must we?!?) Do you really not know about this stuff?!?
How about this great sentiment abridged from Mr. Clarke's sad plea:
over the last few years we have closed the quality and efficiency gaps with our competitors.
What the hell has Detroit been doing for the last 40 years?!?
Did we really JUST wake up to the gaps in quality and efficiency between us and them?
The K car vs. the Accord?
The Pinto vs. the Civic?!?
Do I need to go on?
We are living through the inevitable outcome of the actions of the United States auto industry for decades.
Time to pay for your sins, Detroit.
I attended an economic summit last week where a brilliant economist, Alan Beaulieu surprised the crowd when he said he would not have given the banks a penny of "bailout money". Yes, he said, this would cause short term problems, but despite what people like George Bush and Troy Clark would have us believe, the sun would in fact rise the next day and something else would happen. Where there had been greedy and sloppy banks, new efficient ones would pop up. That is how a free market system works. It does work if we would let it work!
But for some reason we are now deciding that the rest of the world is right and that capitalism doesn't work; that we need the government to step in and "save us". Save us, hell we're nationalizing and unfortunately too many of this once fine nation's citizens don't even have a clue that this is what's really happening but they sure can tell you the stats on their favorite sports teams yeah THAT'S important.
Does it occur to ANYONE that the "competition" has been producing vehicles, EXTREMELY PROFITABLY, for decades now in this country?...
How can that be???
Let's see:
Fuel efficient - - -
Listening to customers - - -
Investing in the proper tooling and automation for the long haul - - -
Not being too complacent or arrogant to listen to Dr W Edwards Deming 4 decades ago - - -
Ever increased productivity through quality, lean and six sigma plans - - -
Treating vendors like strategic partners, rather than like "the enemy" - - -
Efficient front and back offices - - -
Non union environment - - -
Again, I could go on and on, but I really wouldn't be telling anyone anything they really don't already know in their hearts
I have six children, so I am not unfamiliar with the concept of wanting someone to bail you out of a mess that you have gotten yourself into. My children do this on a weekly, if not daily basis, as I did at their age. I do for them what my parents did for me (one of their greatest gifts, by the way). I make them stand on their own two feet and accept the consequences of their actions and work them through.
Radical concept, huh?
Am I there for them in the wings? Of course but only until such time as they need to be fully on their own as adults.
I don't want to oversimplify a complex situation, but there certainly are unmistakable parallels here between the proper role of parenting and government.
Detroit and the United States need to pay for their sins.
Bad news people, it's coming whether we like it or not.
The newly elected Messiah really doesn't have a magic wand big enough to "make it all go away" I laughed as I heard Obama "reeling it back in" almost immediately after the vote count was tallied "we might not do it in a year or in four"! Where was that kind of talk when he was RUNNING for the office.
Stop trying to put off the inevitable!
That house in Florida really isn't worth $750,000!
People who jump across a border really don't deserve free health care benefits!
That job driving that forklift for the big 3 really isn't worth $85,000 a year!
That couple whose combined income is less than $50,000 really shouldn't be living in that $485,000 home!
Let the market correct itself people, it will. Yes it will be painful, but it's gonna be painful either way, and the bright side of my proposal is that on the other side of it is a nation that appreciates what is has and doesn't live beyond its means and gets back to basics and redevelops the work ethic that made it the greatest nation in the history of the world and probably turns back to God.
Sorry, don't cut my head off. I'm just the messenger sharing with you the "bad news".

Gregory J. Knox
President, Knox Machinery Inc.
Franklin, Ohio 45005


Verified at http://www.snopes.com/politics/soapbox/knox.asp

[skiracer]

Yah im in for the short bounce, I am hoping to double my money on the short long run and sell out, im probably not gona hold on to these stocks for a long period maybe a week or two, hopefully they will run up to 5-6 F and 6-7 GM and ill sell out. Thanks for the reply. Im kind of new to stocks so im still learning the jist of everything hehe , I also bought some stock in DTG which I bought for 1.28 do you think the bailout will bump this stock also, I have done some research and most sources say this will be bumped if the bailout occurs, any insight? thanks

well your couple of weeks short term long play has run out of its two week time frame and your down about a 1.1 points as of friday with F and about 1.18 with GM. thats over 25% down on both of them. just curious to know what your strategy is as of monday morning. will you hold on to both of the positions or bail out taking the loss. DTG doesnt look good either right now.
im considering taking a position in F myself this coming week. if you take a look at the daily chart you will see that it has just poked its head above its 50 dma, which was a resistance line and now is a support line, which should be of some help. next line of resistance is the 100 dma at 3.34. there just might be a move up to that line of resistance so you probably might be better off to hold on to your shares for the time being and buying more right here would average you down closer to your entry point and the next line of resistance.
another idea might be to buy a good book on technical and fundamental analysis and do some reading and research as to what it going on. i think it would do you some good to study up on investing and develope some kind of strategy or plan on how you want to invest.

[Peter Hansen]

Taps for GM

The Bugler is getting ready, the stage is set.....and according to the quotes below from the NYT, it won't be long before GM throws in the Monkey Wrench....wow who could believe this would happen?

According to last week's New York Times column, G.M., Leaking Cash, Faces Bigger Chance of Bankruptcy ...
"Even after receiving $15.4 billion in federal loans, General Motors is once again on the brink of financial collapse.

"The automaker's first-quarter earnings released Thursday showed that G.M. was losing more money and sales than it was in late December, when the government began its bailout.

"With its cash reserves down to the bare minimum and its revenue plunging, G.M. seems more certain each day to be heading toward a bankruptcy filing. ...



"The company's chief financial officer, Ray Young, called the drop ... 'a staggering number,' and said consumers were showing increasing concern about G.M. products because of the potential for bankruptcy."

I think the management totally ruined the company ....they kept on building HUGE SUV's nobody was buying, and then sales dropped faster than a loose bowel movement after Exlax!