WSBK ===> The $$$MR. MARKET$$$ Turkey Day Winner!!

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  • mrmarket
    Administrator
    • Sep 2003
    • 5971

    WSBK ===> The $$$MR. MARKET$$$ Turkey Day Winner!!

    Once again it’s Thanksgiving. Time to reflect on everything that has happened to us over the year. You know when those Pilgrims and Native Americans sat down almost 400 years ago to eat, they really showed us a great deal of wisdom. Sure, all of us have experienced some pain and heartache this year. However, I’m sure all of us can take inventory of all of the really wonderful things we have in our lives. For starters, how about our family and friends? Please don’t take things for granted. Let’s be thankful.

    Having said all that, it’s time for yet another $$$MR. MARKET$$$ pick. The candidates were all very strong. Lots of earnings earnings earnings to choose from. Today I bought WSBK at 31.50 (15.75 post split). I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 36.41 (well, it will be 18.21 after the split). Here’s why I like WSBK:

    I can hear the groans coming from across America on this most American of holidays. “Oh no, $$$MR. MARKET$$$, not another small California bank! We want high flying hot stuff techno gadget stuff that just goes up and up.” $$$MR. MARKET$$$ says, “Shut your mouth before I turn into the Stock Nazi and say ‘No more stocks for you! Next!’

    Now take a look:

    Wilshire State Bank is a community bank with a focus on commercial
    real estate lending and general commercial banking, with its primary
    market encompassing the multi-ethnic populations of the Los Angeles
    Metropolitan area. The bank's strategic goals include increasing
    shareholder and franchise value by continuing to grow its multi-ethnic
    banking business and expanding its geographic reach to other similar
    markets with strong levels of small business activity. The Bank offers personal banking services such as checking accounts, including personal and money market; savings accounts, installment savings and time certificates of deposit, and loans, including personal and credit card loans. That’s right, another bank.

    WSBK stock is up 195% in the last 12 months. All this price appreciation over a modest P/E of 19.0. What’s really remarkable is how steady its appreciation has been. 12-month r^2 is 0.84, 6-month r^2 is an unbelievable 0.95 and 3-month r^2 is 0.91. I couldn’t have drawn a straighter line for this chart if I had used a ruler! Even Stockscouter agrees: The StockScouter measure of relative price change and consistency is very high. Very positive.

    IBD ratings on WSBK are 97 for EPS and 90 for RS putting it in the top tier of all of the stocks that it tracks. IBD also says that WSBK is ranked #2 of all of the West / Southwest banks in their database. Shares are under heavy accumulation by financial institutions. Positive for a small company like WSBK. IBD also notes that it’s Sales + profit margins + ROE rating give WSBK an “A” and that it is under Accumulation (another “A”).

    The really timely news is that WSBK is going to offer a 2 for 1 stock dividend for shareholders of record on November 30, 2003. Thus by buying the stock today, I got in on the split. I just love splits. In fact, WSBK is split crazy. Here’s what the boss had to say about splits: “We issued a 10% stock dividend in May of this year and an
    additional two-for-one stock split in August 2002 in an effort to
    improve liquidity for our shareholders," stated Soo Bong Min,
    President and CEO. "Our year-to-date net income is up 48% over the
    first nine months of 2002, and we believe in sharing that success with
    those that have supported Wilshire State Bank." Wow, a split! This is like a Christmas present on Thanksgiving!! And I wasn’t even a good boy this year.

    Don’t you just love a guy whose middle name is “Bong”? I bet he had a lot of fun in his college dorm. When the football players used to punch him and give him atomic wedgies, I bet they called them “Bong Hits”.

    But this boss has not been drinking the bong water. In October, Wilshire State Bank reported record profits for the third quarter and first nine months of 2003. For the nine-month period, net income was $9.3 million, or $1.30 per share, from $6.3 million, or $0.91 per share a year earlier. Third quarter net income increased 46% to $3.3 million, or $0.46 per diluted share, from $2.3 million, or $0.32 per diluted share in the third quarter last year. The dude knows how to work that interest rate spread. Earnings growth in the past year has accelerated moderately compared to earnings growth in the past three years This is positive! The most recent quarterly earnings report was significantly higher than analysts’ consensus forecast. You guessed it..positive!

    Here’s his forecast: "We are continuing to take advantage of the banking opportunities in our niche market and expanding our presence into new markets with a need for an experienced business lender focused on the multi-national community," stated Soo Bong Min, President and CEO. "Our new branch in the Irvine area marks our second Orange County office. Our ongoing branch expansion has contributed to a 77% increase in new loan production over the third quarter last year and has built a platform for continued growth and profitability."

    Mr. Min is not taking bong hits. He is making himself and his shareholders very wealthy. Mr. Min's employment agreement with Wilshire State Bank has been extended. His contract, previously scheduled to end in June 2005, now runs through May 2007. Min joined the bank in late July of 1999, when Wilshire had 6 full service branches and net income of $1.9 million through the first nine months of the year. Since that time, the branch network has nearly doubled to 11 and net income is up nearly five-fold to $9.3million in the first three quarters of 2003. This guy is the equivalent of Pedro Martinez in the banking industry. He has to be the biggest free agent banker out there and WSBK has him for 4 more years.

    "As part of our growth and diversification strategy, we have
    increased our focus on consumer lending," Min said. "While we will
    continue to target small businesses, we rolled out an Auto Loan Center
    in March and a Home Loan Center in September. The Auto Loan Center is
    already contributing to our loan growth, and we expect the Home Loan
    Center to begin generating non-interest income in the form of gain on
    sale of loans in the fourth quarter." As our economy recovers, they announced 8.2% growth yesterday, and particularly California’s economy recovers, the consumer will be the engine of growth for this recovery. The rocket fuel for this engine will be consumer lending. I can see Arnold and Mr. Min getting the munchies as the entire California electorate is borrowing and spending!

    Outstanding lending activity continues to drive the bank's
    success. New loan production increased 77% to $151 million, compared
    to $85 million in the third quarter last year. At quarter-end, total
    loans were $700 million, up 42% from $493 million a year ago. Total
    assets have grown 43% to $892 million, from $624 million a year ago,
    and deposits have increased 38% to $786 million, compared to $569
    million at the end of the third quarter last year.

    Yes it all boils down to earnings doesn’t it? Whether you are a butcher, baker or candlestick maker, you need that do-re-mi to get the hot chicks (or you need 19” biceps, but I digress). Analysts have WSBK pegged at $1.75/share for 2003 and $1.95/share for 2004. WSBK’s earnings have grown at a rate of 30% over the last few years. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ thinks that WSBK will come in at $1.78 for 2003 and $2.30 for 2004. At today’s PE of 19.0, this means the stock will climb to 44.39 by next year, well past my sell target. You’re getting almost 30% earnings growth for a P/E of less than 20!! $$$MR. MARKET$$$ knows a deal when he sees one.


    Return on Equity has grown to 24.8% (vs. industry average of 15.1%) and ROA is 1.6%. Stable or increasing ROEs indicate a well-managed company. WSBK has a debt/equity ratio of 0.19 vs. the industry average of 1.18. Return on invested capital is near 16% whereas the industry average is only 6.9%. Net profit margin is around 20% while industry averages hover around 17.9%.

    Do you remember NARA, another $$$MR. MARKET$$$ winner? NARA is similar to WSBK being a small ethnic based California bank. WSBK’s efficiency ratio (expenses / income) is almost 10% better than NARA’s.

    Here’s one for you techies: Previous day's closing price for WSBK was significantly above its 50-day moving average. Very positive

    So what does a small California bank that caters to Asians have to do with Thanksgiving?? Think about it. There’s nothing more American than the opportunity to grow a small company out of a market niche. Yes…capitalism and opportunity. This is America. There is nothing more American……wait a minute, I lied..there is something more American....FOOTBALL! and gambling on FOOTBALL!!!:

    F 3 11/27 (F) GREEN BAY AT DETROIT (12:30 pm ET)
    Wager Id Outcome Points
    6003 GREEN BAY -6.5 -115 Wager

    6004 DETROIT +6.5 -105 Wager

    6103 OVER 43.5 Wager

    6104 UNDER 43.5 Wager

    6203 GREEN BAY PICK -330 Wager

    6204 DETROIT PICK +250 Wager


    F 5 11/27 (F) MIAMI AT DALLAS (4:05 pm ET)
    Wager Id Outcome Points
    6005 MIAMI +3.0 -105 Wager

    6006 DALLAS -3.0 -115 Wager

    6105 OVER 35.5 Wager

    6106 UNDER 35.5 Wager

    6205 MIAMI PICK +135 Wager

    6206 DALLAS PICK -155 Wager



    Take the OVER 43 ½ in the Lions game and lay the wood and bet on Parcells and the Cowboys -3.0 over the Dolphins. The Packers can’t play defense and there is no way Bill Parcells is going to lose his first Thanksgiving game coaching America’s team with Jerry Jones on the sideline.

    Now get out of my way and give me the clicker and go give me some beers!

    Happy Thanksgiving!

    I am HUGE!!!

    $$$MR. MARKET$$$$
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$
  • jiesen
    Senior Member
    • Sep 2003
    • 5319

    #2
    wsbk

    looks good. It's no hi-flyin techno-gadget stock, but this one's going up and up, for sure. I'm in!

    Comment

    • talkingrobe

      #3
      wsbk

      Well I'm glad we both agree...

      I checked the 5 stocks last night, this morning I had my order in for WSBK and got it at 31.499.
      Another good bank account can't hurt...

      Meats cheeses and beers to you!

      Comment

      • Karel
        Administrator
        • Sep 2003
        • 2199

        #4
        Indeed, looks good! I didn't quite finish the unpacking yet, back from a couple of days Rome, but I did have time for this!

        MrMarket, you ROCK!
        My Investopedia portfolio
        (You need to have a (free) Investopedia or Facebook login, sorry!)

        Comment

        • titanomega1
          Member
          • Sep 2003
          • 54

          #5
          turkey Day

          I am thankful for CLSR a real gem of a pick. Mr. Market is unconscious even a late bloomer like AXL is something to be thankful for. Did you hold AXL you? you? you?

          All hail Mr. Market lets say a prayer for him.

          " Lord, bless this table and keep Mr. Market healthy in the coming year, may all his picks reach their desired heights with little downward movement. Bless Mr. Market's family and all of us at mrmarketishuge. "

          amen
          "my elbows are hinges, my arms machines"

          Comment

          • IntoIT
            Junior Member
            • Nov 2003
            • 1

            #6
            Checked out Mr. Market's list of 5 last night, and wasn't sure which way he'd go for the pick...

            I've been in and out of homebuilders several times this year for nice profits, but they seem to be quite extended now, IMO. Just plain don't care for insurance companies (an irrational emotional response, I know).
            Mental health and detention services, I thought, had promise...

            And, I had to admit, I thought "Oh no, not another small California bank - I want hot stuff techno gadgets."

            But, you read the story, you laugh, you believe, you buy....I'm in!
            Have a Happy Thanksgiving, Mr. Market...You are HUGE!

            Comment


            • #7
              Don't you ever get tired of repeatedly picking winners?! Wouldn't life be a lot more fun if there were the occasional clunker? No? The stick with $$$MR_MARKET$$$. This certainly looks like another in the HUGE string of winners.

              Comment


              • #8
                good pick--thanks

                ERNIE:

                What a market that we are in…Up – Down—all around - and yet your system continues to deliver amazing results.

                Your system beats anything that I am aware of. The stock CLSR, met all your criteria for get in, get out, make your money then move on to the next stock that has juice left in it to make a nice RUN UP! CLSR was a truly amazing stock that ran right up.

                I do not know/understand, how you pick the stocks and then put them is your Wharton College model.
                Please correct me if I am wrong.
                1. You down load the IBD stocks that meet a criteria.
                2. How does IBD let you get into the data base, for your data dump?
                3. Is this an extra cost that IBD subscribers must pay for?
                4. Then you scrub the huge data dump for a possible best pick, of five. Is this done thru another IBD data base scrub, or is this a proprietary thing?
                5. Finally, you apply your special “wiz-bang--abracadabra – bingo-bongo -- presto “- and out comes, the best of the five. Lets buy!

                I truly appreciate your skills and knowledge and market savvy. I got rid of Merrill Lynch, as all they did was lose my money. So many thanks!
                From a sincere person, thanks, as I have learned the hard way that you seldom get thanks, just complaints.
                Happy Thanksgiving

                Comment

                • mrmarket
                  Administrator
                  • Sep 2003
                  • 5971

                  #9
                  Re: good pick--thanks

                  Originally posted by carlton02
                  ERNIE:

                  What a market that we are in…Up – Down—all around - and yet your system continues to deliver amazing results.

                  Your system beats anything that I am aware of. The stock CLSR, met all your criteria for get in, get out, make your money then move on to the next stock that has juice left in it to make a nice RUN UP! CLSR was a truly amazing stock that ran right up.

                  I do not know/understand, how you pick the stocks and then put them is your Wharton College model.
                  Please correct me if I am wrong.
                  1. You down load the IBD stocks that meet a criteria.
                  2. How does IBD let you get into the data base, for your data dump?
                  3. Is this an extra cost that IBD subscribers must pay for?
                  4. Then you scrub the huge data dump for a possible best pick, of five. Is this done thru another IBD data base scrub, or is this a proprietary thing?
                  5. Finally, you apply your special “wiz-bang--abracadabra – bingo-bongo -- presto “- and out comes, the best of the five. Lets buy!

                  I truly appreciate your skills and knowledge and market savvy. I got rid of Merrill Lynch, as all they did was lose my money. So many thanks!
                  From a sincere person, thanks, as I have learned the hard way that you seldom get thanks, just complaints.
                  Happy Thanksgiving
                  check the reference section...Karel has invented a way that automagically picks $$$MR. MARKET$$$ stocks.
                  =============================

                  I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

                  - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

                  Comment

                  • The Photon
                    Senior Member
                    • Nov 2003
                    • 189

                    #10
                    Turkey Day

                    I too will get a belly full, in at the bell 31.25 I liked it out of the five presented and decided to go this morning. - Thanks for all your work HUGE one. these football picks are they from a model as well? this site is something else!! onward
                    The Photon

                    Comment

                    • douhou
                      Junior Member
                      • Nov 2003
                      • 3

                      #11
                      FOLLOWING MR MARKET'S PORTFOLIO

                      Thanks for the email you sent this am. I was able to get in at 31.35.

                      I also have your pick awhile back: CCBI

                      Comment

                      • mrmarket
                        Administrator
                        • Sep 2003
                        • 5971

                        #12
                        My football picks sucked. Hopefully WSBK will do better. I hate the NFL.
                        =============================

                        I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

                        - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          WSBK - very low avg daily volume

                          Yahoo shows avg daily vol of under 20K shares per day. Not a recommended buy. No easy way to get out of the stock without risk of big loss.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Prev post on UHCO board on Yahoo

                            See my post # 516 on the UHCO board on Yahoo Finance. I had picked a couple of dozen stocks based strictly on chart setup and technical attributes, then posted the results of what those stocks did after only 7 subsequent trading days. Not bad. (You might also take a look on your own at how each of those stocks has performed from that time to today.)

                            This Turkey Day weekend I'm looking at the following short list of chart setups: CATS, FPIC (also on MM's recent Top 5 list), PER, SAM (Boston Beer Co, MM!), SP, and TLRK.

                            My approach:

                            * Take list of new 52-wk hights each day for about 5 days in a row. I like to use the listing ("full list") found at barchart.com and sort it by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) column. In each day's list make note of stocks with the following characteristics.

                            * Identify stocks under $20.00/sh *and* with avg daily volume > 50K. The $20/sh criterion is my own relatively arbitrary requirement. If not in an obvious bull market, I might raise the $20/sh threshold to $30 or higher. This is simply to reduce the number of candidate stocks to examine further.

                            * Among these candidates keep examining only those with RSI (Note: this is *not* IBD's Relative Strength measure) of 70 (+/- 3) and with the RSI line inclining (sloping upward). You want to be looking for a strong stock that is presently getting stronger and has room to get stronger. RSI measures greater than 80 are typically not sustainable for more than a few days.

                            * Look at the chart of each candidate. How far above the stock's current price (that is, what % gain would occur over today's price) is the next major point of price/volume resistance (look up the meaning of "resistance," "support," and "breakout" at investorwords.com). The greater the % gain to reach that resistance point the better. If a stock is at its own all-time high, it is all the better. (Homework: Learn about the role of resistance in a stock's price behavior.)

                            * For each candidate that is left, go to stockcharts.com and take a look at a plot of the stock's Wilder DMI (ADX) indicator. Here is an example:

                            http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=PER,uu[l,a]daolyyay[de][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!Ll14]&pref=G

                            Look at the plot at the bottom of the chart and look at the next point of resistance (at almost $20/sh) in this chart's past versus the stock's current price ($12.50/sh).

                            You want to look for a stock whose Wilder DMI (ADX) chart shows 1) a black line that is down around 20 but has bottomed and is now turning up again, 2) a "jump" in the green line (strength of buying behavior) and 3) a simultaneous decline in the red line (strength of selling behavior). I have found that finding a chart with the first 2 of these 3 makes for a good predictor of subsequent price rise in the stock. If you find a Wilder DMI (ADX) chart with all 3 happening, you are in even better shape.

                            * Now, after 5 days or so of looking at the charts for your candidates, you should have a few that are your best candidates to make a buy. Among these, do a little research on the financial condition of the company, how high is the stock's P/E ratio versus others in its industry, how low or high is its debt/equity ratio, etc. You also want to favor a company with a low (less than 1.2) Price/Earnings to Earnings Growth (PEG) ratio. For PEG figure you can't always rely on Yahoo numbers, for instance. And you have to consider whether you're more comfortable using past earnings history or future earnings guidance as the basis for your P/E and PEG numbers. The more you know about the reliability of the company's earnings prospects, the better. If you have a found profitable company with solid and perhaps growing earnings, your stock buy will be that much less risky.

                            * Make a buy of one or more of your best candidates using all the criteria mentioned above. When any stock reaches a 15% gain, SELL IT. Do that for each stock that you buy. I agree with MRMARKET about this particular selling discipline. My reasoning is based on the financial world's "Rule of 72," which tells you that after making a series of *5* buys/sells where you make at least a 15% gain on your invested capital in each buy/sell, you will have just over DOUBLED your invested capital. You can make those 5 trades over whatever timeframe you are comfortable with and based on your own risk profile.

                            So my technique starts with chart and technical identifiers, then whittles those candidates down to those with the best current financial condition and near-future earning prospects. You have less risk if you go with a stock where the company has a good "story" that will attract other buyers in the near term. That's what makes your appreciation happen.

                            All of this is to support a basic goal of finding stocks with the best chance of giving you a 15% gain in a short (under 3 weeks) period of time while also providing less risk than the average uptrending stock. The quicker you take your 15% profit, the sooner you have doubled your capital.

                            I have found this approach to be pretty simple to carry out and works well for good gains in a bull market (which we find ourselves into today) and even in a not-so-bullish market. In a bull market situation one challenge is making the time to go over the many, many candidate stocks you will find.

                            Happy hunting!

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: WSBK - very low avg daily volume

                              Originally posted by ParkTwain
                              No easy way to get out of the stock without risk of big loss.
                              not a problem if you don't get out of it until it has produced $$$HUGE$$$ gains for you.

                              Comment

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