SNX - The Washington Island Winner

[skiracer]

Thanks for your advice, point well taken. Although I've been listed as a "junior member", I've been trading stocks for 30 years, and do have an understanding of chart patterns. I also have my rules that I trade by.
One is, I don't place tight "protective stops", they will almost always be taken out clipping a couple of % off your gain.
Two, if at any time I get a 10% or more gain overnight, I take it. I'm a short term trader (never more than a week) so I set price goals when I enter the trade, and have the luxury of watching the market almost anytime I want. When I feel a stock has reached a short term high I get out. I will buy SNX back if it dips back to where I last bought it and closes up for that day. Looking at the chart with the big gap up yesterday I feel there's a strong chance some of that gap will be filled (at least to the 26 level) and usually does. The point and figure charts have SNX as having a Double Top Breakout yesterday, with a revised price target of 46.5. So if I don't get back in at the price I want I'll keep it on my watchlist and move on.
Using this strategy has gotten me in and out of FUQI a few times over the last few weeks, with no pain, only gains. Same with BAC from $5.87 on up.
Sure it takes more work but it lets me sleep at night. I usually don't wait for a 7% stop loss to get out, usually around 4 or 5%. Less stressful. And you do have to pay attention to what the overall market is doing. The stocks I buy don't always exist in a vacuum.
Sorry you got stopped out today, at what point will you buy back? I understand what you're saying about position sizing and expectancy(Van Tharp) ,but rather than trying for a 20% gain vs. a 7% loss, I'm mostly looking for a 12 to 15% gain vs. a 4 or 5% loss. I know there's more trading involved and watching your stocks very closely, but like I said it lets me sleep at night. It also allows me to take many days off from trading and being out of the market I have a clear state of mind when I'm away from the computer and TV. And I agree with you when you say these last two have been good to us and most trades don't turn out as good. Good luck to you too. And if I ever had 7 out of ten 7% losses (as in your example) in a row I'd definitely stop trading for a while to analyze what my mistakes were.

to each his own. actually i removed the stop early this morning and am still holding the trade. up over 19 % at the present. i think the stock goes over $30 or more. i know alot of people get trapped and stopped out of their trades by their stops but i like to maximize every opportunity. over the course of time i know very few traders, who are swing trading on a regular basis with two to three or more trades a week, who are averaging 3 to 4 winners out of 10. actually 3 out of 10 is very good but to make it work you must let the winners run out to the max to make up for those seven 7% losers. i wasnt implying having 7 losers in a row but it can and does happen even to the best of us. my max loss point is 7% which will vary sometimes but never more than 7%. when snx goes over $30 or more i'll have maxed out with the trade. like i said to each his own. it sounds like you're doing well so your strategies must be working for you but you should stay open minded about all of this. good luck.

[rickg777]

skiracer

Thanks for your advice, point well taken. Although I've been listed as a "junior member", I've been trading stocks for 30 years, and do have an understanding of chart patterns. I also have my rules that I trade by.
One is, I don't place tight "protective stops", they will almost always be taken out clipping a couple of % off your gain.
Two, if at any time I get a 10% or more gain overnight, I take it. I'm a short term trader (never more than a week) so I set price goals when I enter the trade, and have the luxury of watching the market almost anytime I want. When I feel a stock has reached a short term high I get out. I will buy SNX back if it dips back to where I last bought it and closes up for that day. Looking at the chart with the big gap up yesterday I feel there's a strong chance some of that gap will be filled (at least to the 26 level) and usually does. The point and figure charts have SNX as having a Double Top Breakout yesterday, with a revised price target of 46.5. So if I don't get back in at the price I want I'll keep it on my watchlist and move on.
Using this strategy has gotten me in and out of FUQI a few times over the last few weeks, with no pain, only gains. Same with BAC from $5.87 on up.
Sure it takes more work but it lets me sleep at night. I usually don't wait for a 7% stop loss to get out, usually around 4 or 5%. Less stressful. And you do have to pay attention to what the overall market is doing. The stocks I buy don't always exist in a vacuum.
Sorry you got stopped out today, at what point will you buy back? I understand what you're saying about position sizing and expectancy(Van Tharp) ,but rather than trying for a 20% gain vs. a 7% loss, I'm mostly looking for a 12 to 15% gain vs. a 4 or 5% loss. I know there's more trading involved and watching your stocks very closely, but like I said it lets me sleep at night. It also allows me to take many days off from trading and being out of the market I have a clear state of mind when I'm away from the computer and TV. And I agree with you when you say these last two have been good to us and most trades don't turn out as good. Good luck to you too. And if I ever had 7 out of ten 7% losses (as in your example) in a row I'd definitely stop trading for a while to analyze what my mistakes were.

[Karel]

I just sold SNX at 28.70.

$$$Mr. Market$$$ is HUGE

[steelman]

Making money while vacationing on Kauai, love it! I bought in on 6/30 for $24.10. I will sell when it hits Ernie's target of $28.70. Right now it would be a 17% gain, but I want $$$Mr. Market $$$ to have 100 picks in a row with 15% or better. Then it would be a 19% gain in a couple of days!!! Thank you $$$MM$$$, you da man. I will have a Mai-tai in your honor tomorrow...beach side!!!

Best wishes to everyone,
Joe

[jiesen]

it was a strong stock fundamentally and buying right in front of an earnings report can go either way or it just might not quite live up to analysts expectations and althought being positive would go in the other direction. there is always a bit of racing luck involved when buying in front of and earnings report. count our blessings that this one went the right way.

ain't that the truth... that said, it's still nice to celebrate the winners when you can.

[jiesen]

oh, SNX! we hardly new ya...

Has anyone sold SN[X] yet?

Yep, me too! I'm out at 28 for a 14% gain. Surprised me today by hitting my limit order in just one day... I was expecting to sell next week for 28.4, or maybe tomorrow, but 14% in a day, I'll take to the bank anyday!

Thanks for the most excellent pick of the year, $$MM!!! You are indeed the greatest stock picker there can ever be. All the finest meats and cheese are yours tonight! (or perhaps tomorrow, if that's when you cash out your SNX)

[skiracer]

Well I was in at 24.51 so I already have my 15% but haven't sold yet. Thanks for the pick!

good play dataloss. it's so easy to protect those gains and make more if it continues up farther. thank mr. market for the find. thank yourself for having the good sense to buy it. now protect it and reap even more gains.

[dataloss]

Well I was in at 24.51 so I already have my 15% but haven't sold yet. Thanks for the pick!

[skiracer]

Yes! Sold today. UP 12.25% in one day. Bought yesterday @ 24.5, sold today @ 27.5. It'll probably go much higher but how can you not take a one day (overnight) profit.

Mr. Market you are awesome, great call! Thank you.

this is how you could have exercised some emotional restraint and patience and gotten alot more out of the opportunity.
you could have easily placed a stop on the trade up close to protect your gains without exiting the position early like that. you will come to see and realize that when the opportunity is there you MUST make every effort to MAXIMIZE your chance to make more gains. if you look at it in the perspective that in 10 trades if you had 7 losers and that you cut your losses at a maximum of 7% from your entry with those 7 losers your maximum loss would be 7 losses of 7 %. hypothetically as an example 7% of $1000 = $70 x 7 losses = $490. if the other 3 trades were winners of say 20% that would = 20% of $1000 = $200 x 3 winners = $600. in this example you see where 3 winners will provide and equal more in gains than the 7 losers will equal in total losses. by controlling the winners with properly placed protective stops you can protect your gains and increase your opportunities and chances to increase your gains.
another example of how emotional control and controlling the trade works is how i managed my position in SNX from my entry at $23.98. as the trade progressed i placed protective stops at specific points below the actual trading price during the day and left a stop in place at the end of the day at $27.75. knowing how to interpret charts and chart patterns is a big help in understanding if there is any gas left in the tank with a trade and will enable you to know where to place these protective stops. i feel that there is still plenty of gas left in this stock because of it's chart and rather than take the gains off and not participate in further gains the well placed stop provides me with the opportunity to take more gains until the stock actually starts to stall and run out of momentum. spend some time learning about technical analysis, interpreting chart patterns, and learn about placing protective stops. and understand how important it is to maximize every opportunity because opportunities like these dont happen everyday and it is a dogfight to end up in the black at the end of the year.
as an afterthought i was in at a lower entry so my percentages are going to be higher from the start. it closed today at $28.22. my entry was at 23.98 which equals 4.24 pts. which equals 4.24/23.98 =17.68% and the trade is still open with a good chance that SNX is going to continue to track farther up. the only difference between you and i is that you took your 12.25 % off the table and have no chance at increasing your gains while mine are still alive, protected, and open to a further move up. if the stock does pullback tomorrow to 27.75 and i get stopped out i still make 15.72% rather than 17.68% but if the stock continues up tomorrow to $29 or $30 then at $29 my gains have increased to 20.93% and at $30 they have increased to 25%. that 25% insures that my next 3 losses of 7%, if that happens, are covered, whereas your 12.25% gain only insures that your next 1.5 trades are covered if you honor a 7% stop loss with your trades. look into what i am talking about and although you did great you cheated yourself, perhaps unknowingly, out of a good opportunity to make alot more for yourself and your trading acct. good luck and you did good with this trade. just dont think that 12.25 % is as good as you can do for yourself. you can do much better while protecting whatever gains you have in place at the same time. good luck.

[rickg777]

Yes! Sold today. UP 12.25% in one day. Bought yesterday @ 24.5, sold today @ 27.5. It'll probably go much higher but how can you not take a one day (overnight) profit.

Mr. Market you are awesome, great call! Thank you.

[steelman]

Has anyone sold SNK yet?

[skiracer]

Understandable...I suppose this last one was just coincidental that Ernie's pick happened near earnings.....

it was a strong stock fundamentally and buying right in front of an earnings report can go either way or it just might not quite live up to analysts expectations and althought being positive would go in the other direction. there is always a bit of racing luck involved when buying in front of and earnings report. count our blessings that this one went the right way.

[GR40RCapri]

be humble and gracious with these winners. and dont forget for a minute that a higher percentage of these plays take much longer than these last two and some never make it.

Understandable...I suppose this last one was just coincidental that Ernie's pick happened near earnings.....

[skiracer]

???YOUS SEES?!?!?!

Meats and cheeses all around!!

be humble and gracious with these winners. and dont forget for a minute that a higher percentage of these plays take much longer than these last two and some never make it.

[GR40RCapri]

???YOUS SEES?!?!?!

Meats and cheeses all around!!