IIC's Winners Watchlists

[IIC]

Analysts' Highest-Rated Stocks

 

 This is a weekly ranking by First Call of the highest-rated 
stocks, based on analyst comments contributed within 
the past month to First Call's database. 

 To be included on the list, a company must be rated 
by at least five analysts.

First Call Consensus Recommendation Scale 

  1 = Buy 

  2 = Buy/Hold 

  3 = Hold 

  4 = Hold/Sell 

  5 = Sell


			   Most Attractive Issues
			  ---- ---------- ------
			Latest  # Analysts  Previous
		   Consensus  Covering   Consensus

(HHGP)			1.0	  5	   1.5
(VDSI)			1.1	  7	   1.4
(ROP)			 1.2	 11	   1.4
(AIRN)			1.2	  6	   1.4
(HUG)			 1.2	  6	   1.0
(ORB)			 1.2	  6	   1.3
(RNT)			 1.2	  6	   1.7
(PGI)			 1.2	  5	   1.5
(CHE)			 1.2	  5	   1.3
(DY)			  1.2	  5	   1.3
(MSSR)			1.2	  5	   1.3
(VION)			1.2	  5	   1.3
(UCO)			 1.3	  9	   1.4
(PGNX)			1.3	  8	   1.1
(INTV)			1.3	  7	   1.6
(HAWK)			1.3	  7	   1.7
(BIVN)			1.3	  7	   1.2
(DOVP)			1.3	  7	   1.4
(DTPI)			1.3	  7	   1.1
(KERX)			1.3	  7	   1.2
(ASHW)			1.3	  6	   1.4
(CPTV)			1.3	  6	   1.4
(PDC)			 1.3	  6	   1.4
(AGO)			 1.4	  8	   1.6
(CENT)			1.4	  7	   1.3
(SRVY)			1.4	  7	   1.5
(XRTX)			1.4	  7	   1.5
(RCRC)			1.4	  7	   1.3
(SYD)			 1.4	  5	   1.8
(XRAY)			1.4	  5	   1.5
(TIER)			1.4	  5	   1.5
(OPTV)			1.4	  5	   1.3
(BCII)			1.4	  5	   2.0
(SAY)			 1.4	  5	   1.5
(JAH)			 1.4	  5	   1.8
(GNCMA)		   1.4	  5	   1.5
(CAPA)			1.4	  5	   1.5
(AVL)			 1.4	  5	   1.5
(NOOF)			1.4	  5	   1.5
(BBX)			 1.5	 15	   1.7
(TPX)			 1.5	 11	   1.6
(APCS)			1.5	 11	   1.7
(TOT)			 1.5	 10	   1.6
(PXP)			 1.5	  8	   1.4
(NABI)			1.5	  8	   1.6
(IVN)			 1.5	  6	   1.5
(IBI)			 1.5	  6	   1.6
(UTHR)			1.5	  6	   1.7
(WMMVY)		   1.5	  6	   1.4
(LIFC)			1.5	  6	   1.7
(LSCP)			1.5	  6	   1.6
(SNRR)			1.5	  6	   1.4
(EPEX)			1.5	  6	   1.4
(ALXN)			1.5	  6	   1.8
(AVCT)			1.5	  6	   1.6
(TFSM)			1.5	  6	   1.4
(MSM)			 1.5	  6	   1.2
(VCBI)			1.5	  6	   1.6
(NCI)			 1.5	  6	   1.8
(CRR)			 1.5	  6	   1.8
(CW)			  1.5	  6	   1.8
(CKR)			 1.5	  6	   1.6
(CEDC)			1.5	  6	   1.4
(TRMB)			1.5	  6	   1.2
(BEAV)			1.5	  6	   1.8
(CRME)			1.6	 14	   1.5
(TSCO)			1.6	 13	   1.8
(VCLK)			1.6	 11	   1.7
(OPEN)			1.6	 10	   1.8
(MICU)			1.6	 10	   1.7
(GIL)			 1.6	 10	   1.5
(LAMR)			1.6	 10	   1.7
(PSYS)			1.6	  9	   1.4
(CTRP)			1.6	  9	   1.7
(SINT)			1.6	  9	   1.3

Analysts' Lowest-Rated Stocks

 

This is a weekly ranking by First Call of the 
Lowest-rated stocks, based 
on analyst comments contributed within
the past month to First Call's database. 

To be included on the list, a company 
must be rated by at least five analysts.

First Call Consensus Recommendation Scale 

  1 = Buy 

  2 = Buy/Hold 

  3 = Hold 

  4 = Hold/Sell 

  5 = Sell


				  Least Attractive Issues
				  ---- ---------- ------
			 Latest	# Analysts  Previous
			 Consensus  Covering   Consensus

(MSO)		   4.4	   5	   4.3
(LVLT)		  4.1	   8	   4.3
(AGCC)		  4.0	   5	   4.3
()			  4.0	   5	   3.8
(SUP)		   3.9	  10	   3.8
(GBP)		   3.9	  11	   4.0
(DPH)		   3.9	  18	   3.8
(ALO)		   3.8	   5	   4.0
(KKD)		   3.8	   6	   3.7
(BCH)		   3.8	   6	   3.6
(PAL)		   3.8	   6	   3.7
(DDS)		   3.8	   9	   3.9
(REGN)		  3.7	   6	   3.8
(BCGI)		  3.7	   6	   3.4
(APU)		   3.7	   6	   3.6
(FLYI)		  3.7	   9	   3.4
(GM)			3.7	  15	   3.8
(DQE)		   3.6	   5	   3.3
(DYS)		   3.6	   5	   3.2
(BBOX)		  3.6	   5	   3.2
(UST)		   3.6	   7	   3.7
(ACTU)		  3.6	   7	   3.5
(TZA)		   3.6	   8	   3.5
(PZE)		   3.6	   9	   3.8
(JDSU)		  3.6	  15	   3.5
(AOC)		   3.6	  18	   3.7
(DRL)		   3.5	   6	   3.2
(SWC)		   3.5	   6	   3.3
(POSS)		  3.5	   6	   3.3
(MYG)		   3.5	   8	   3.4
(CNXT)		  3.5	   8	   3.8
(EMT)		   3.5	   8	   3.3
(HIW)		   3.5	   8	   3.6
(HKY)		   3.5	   8	   3.6
(EK)			3.5	  11	   3.6
(HU)			3.5	  11	   3.1
(ODSY)		  3.5	  11	   3.4
(ESST)		  3.5	  11	   3.4
(LF)			3.5	  11	   3.6
(ASYT)		  3.5	  12	   3.6
(PLB)		   3.5	  12	   3.4
(ELN)		   3.5	  12	   3.7
(PPS)		   3.5	  13	   3.6
(JNS)		   3.5	  14	   3.4
(CHTR)		  3.5	  16	   3.4
(EDS)		   3.5	  21	   3.6
(TEO)		   3.4	   5	   3.6
(LOOK)		  3.4	   5	   3.0
(SSTI)		  3.4	   5	   3.3
(GNTA)		  3.4	   5	   3.5
(PLNR)		  3.4	   5	   3.2
(SIE)		   3.4	   5	   3.3
(AFCE)		  3.4	   5	   4.0
(HMN)		   3.4	   5	   3.3
(PBCT)		  3.4	   5	   3.0
(AKS)		   3.4	   7	   3.1
(SCMR)		  3.4	   7	   3.1
(PGL)		   3.4	   7	   3.6
(CHZ)		   3.4	   8	   3.6
(POS)		   3.4	   8	   3.3
(CNH)		   3.4	   8	   3.2
(WFSL)		  3.4	   9	   3.5
(ABI)		   3.4	   9	   3.3
(NXL)		   3.4	  11	   3.3
(PNX)		   3.4	  12	   3.5
(GBBK)		  3.4	  15	   3.5
(PIXR)		  3.4	  18	   3.3
(RF)			3.4	  19	   3.3
(JP)			3.4	  19	   3.5
(THC)		   3.4	  21	   3.5

[IIC]

Interesting day...I took the day off work and concentrated on trading. Traded STMP CYCL SPLS. But I cashed out before the FOMC...just to be safe.

Afterwards, Naz hit a ceiling right at medium resistance and then fell back...I decided to go take a shower and water the plants. I didn't bother watching the last 1/2 hr...But there was a small spike at the end, apparently due to the inadvertant omission of the long term inflation contained thing...Sounds like BS to me...we trust these jokers with running the economy and they can't even type the shortest announcement in memory correctly??? No wonder it takes 3 weeks to publish the FOMC minutes. (they will be released 5/24)...BTW...Here was theier original statement:

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3 percent.

The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. Recent data suggest that the solid pace of spending growth has slowed somewhat, partly in response to the earlier increases in energy prices. Labor market conditions, however, apparently continue to improve gradually. Pressures on inflation have picked up in recent months and pricing power is more evident.

The Committee perceives that, with appropriate monetary policy action, the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability should be kept roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be contained, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Richard W. Fisher; Edward M. Gramlich; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; Anthony M. Santomero; and Gary H. Stern.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point increase in the discount rate to 4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco.

Today's MoMo:

SEB KOSP TS HANS GEFB SSY STMP UTHR CTT HTC SRDX CYCL NICK PTC CRXL TZIX VDSI UBET

SEB
KOSP
TS
HANS
GEFB
SSY
STMP
UTHR
CTT
HTC
SRDX
CYCL
NICK
PTC
CRXL
TZIX
VDSI
UBET

[IIC]

S/R for Wednesday

Nasdaq

Resistance

2184
2163
2128
2107-Medium
2090
2066
2048
2028
2015-Medium
1975
1960
1944-Medium

Support

1923-Weak
1906
1884
1867-1877-Weak

QQQQ

Resistance

40.50
40.05
39.50
39.20
38.75
38.10-Medium
36.95-Medium
36.50
36.10-Medium
35.75-Weak
35.40-Medium

Support

35.00-Weak
34.70
34.35
34.05-Weak
33.80-Very Weak

[IIC]

Upgrades:

WIRE ERTS GB TERN MMC OFC DNR GPP CUZ DWSN WMS Q RATE VVTV UNTD TEK BSC BWA CBB RT HURN PSTI CTCO AFR AT VTIV

[RL]

Doug,
What Is your take on the banks In this environment? Intrest rates up they must make more money on all types of loans plus more money put Into CD's etc. I don't know how It works just the way It seams It should be.

Anyone that could catch what stock I ment should be able to answer this LOL

[jiesen]

Doug,
What Is your take on the banks In this environment? Intrest rates up they must make more money on all types of loans plus more money put Into CD's etc. I don't know how It works just the way It seams It should be.

Anyone that could catch what stock I ment should be able to answer this LOL

I think the way bank stocks perform versus interest rate changes can be pretty counterintuitive. Sort of the way a bond fund drops when the interest rates go up. You'd think that if the rates increase, your money will be making more money in the bond fund, but actually the bonds get cheaper because they were bought at a fixed interest rate which is lower than what you can buy now. Same is true for a bank, to an extent that they have a bunch of mortgages at fixed rates, which they were making a good spread from the low current interest rate.

Say a bank has $100M in fixed mortgages that they got for an average of 6%. At the time they got them the interest rates they paid on the deposits and short term CD's were 2%. That's a nice spread on the loans of 4%, or $4M per year, but if their borrowing costs go up (say the market rate goes to 4%) their spread now drops to just 2%, and their earnings are now just $2M (sounds eerily like a stock I own...). They can go and get new mortgages at 8% to make up for this, but in the meantime they're still stuck with all those old 6% loans they made before. So like a bond fund, the higher rates mean bigger profits, but later on. But short term, higher rates mean a drop in the current earnings and, as a consequence, IV of the investment.

[IIC]

I worked for B of A and Security Pacific for over 16 years...but I was in Real Estate.

Anyway...he's right...it is all about spreads.

But I posted an article about banks recently...I think they will have problems with the Cash Cow fees...they will be heavily regulated in the next yr or so IMO

[IIC]

Traded DIGE LCAV PSTI and DCAI today.

Today's MoMo:

PARL NICE WPTE PLCE UHCO TU BHS VSEC SBAC STMP NSI HUM IMAX FLOW WLDA TNH TZIX CITP ELP KMGB CNU GOT UNWR SWB

PARL
NICE
WPTE
PLCE
UHCO
TU
BHS
VSEC
SBAC
STMP
NSI
HUM
IMAX
FLOW
WLDA
TNH
TZIX
CITP
ELP
KMGB
CNU
GOT
UNWR
SWB

[IIC]

S/R for Thursday

Nasdaq

Resistance

2184
2163
2128
2107-Medium
2090
2066
2048
2028
2015-Medium
1975

Support

1948-Medium
1906
1884-1889
1867-1877-Weak

QQQQ

Resistance

40.50
40.05
39.50
39.20
38.75
38.10
36.95-Medium
36.50
36.05-Medium

Support

35.45
35.00-Weak
34.70
34.35-35.45
34.05-Weak
33.80-Very Weak

[IIC]

In the morning I traded GLW TSRA ECIL...lost a bit on all three...took a break and actually went to work...Later I traded FTO KWK MCRS...did pretty good on those although I sold the first two too early because I had to go to a meeting...but such is life. Have to hit the road tomorrow at 11am EDT...might get a trade or two in...might not...IIC

S/R for Friday

Nasdaq

Resistance

2184
2163
2128
2107-Medium
2090
2066
2048
2028
2014-Medium
1975

Support

1947-Medium
1906
1884-1889
1867-1877-Weak

QQQQ

Resistance

40.50
40.05
39.50
39.20
38.75
38.10
36.95-Medium
36.50
36.05-Medium

Support

35.50-Medium
34.75
34.35
34.05-Weak
33.80-Very Weak

Today's MoMo:

BOOM TS CCRT PLCE BLUD PARL AEOS BHS DCAI NNI MCRS PWEI SRDX SCVL NMTI SPTN TZIX SGRP

BOOM
TS
CCRT
PLCE
BLUD
PARL
AEOS
BHS
DCAI
NNI
MCRS
PWEI
SRDX
SCVL
NMTI
SPTN
TZIX
SGRP

[IIC]

Table of U.S. Employment Data From Labor Department

.

								   FEB.	MAR.	APR.
U.S. Unemployment Rate			 5.4%	5.2%	5.2%

Data From Establishment Survey

  Non-farm Payrolls (000s)	  132,873   133,019 133,293
  Monthly Change					300	   146	 274
  Goods Producing				22,066	22,095  22,140
  Construction					7,133	 7,162   7,209
  Manufacturing				  14,321	14,314  14,308
  Service Producing			 110,807   110,924 111,153
  Retail trade				   15,125	15,123  15,148
  Professional, Business		 16,775	16,807  16,843
  Education, Health			  17,186	17,209  17,244
  Leisure, Hospitality		   12,650	12,674  12,732
  Government					 21,733	21,732  21,750

 Average Hourly Workweek
  Total private					 33.7	  33.7	33.9
  Manufacturing					 40.6	  40.4	40.5
  Mfg Overtime					   4.6	   4.5	 4.5
  Avg Weekly Earns Total Private  $536.17   $537.52 $542.40
  Avg Hourly Earns Total Private   $15.91	$15.95  $16.00

Data From Household Survey

Civilian Labor Force (000s)	 148,132  148,157 148,762
 Change							153	   25	 605
Employment(000s)				140,144  140,501 141,099
 Change							-97	  357	 598
Unemployment (000s)			   7,988	7,656   7,663
 Change							251	 -332	   7
Not in Labor Force (000s)		76,909   77,079  76,679
 Change							 51	  170	-400
Persons Who Want Job			  4,995	5,001   5,134
 Change							 13		6	 133

[IIC]

Traded DJO and LUFK early...but had to hit the road all day at 8am PDT...I cashed them out...paid for lunch.

Today's MoMo:
CKCM COI CTO TIE CLHB DCAI CRXL LB BMI IRIS ALDA LUFK SMVB AQNT SSY SMIT SBAC INMD FLOW OMR CNU BABY PWEI CMT MAIN

CKCM
COI
CTO
TIE
CLHB
DCAI
CRXL
LB
BMI
IRIS
ALDA
LUFK
SMVB
AQNT
SSY
SMIT
SBAC
INMD
FLOW
OMR
CNU
BABY
PWEI
CMT
MAIN

[IIC]

To all the Moms:

[skiracer]

Doug,
Coincidence that MAIN came up on your list of momo plays today. I have been watching it for a couple of weeks. Did it come up on one of your scans? My feelings are that it may turn out to be a good one.

[IIC]

Doug,
Coincidence that MAIN came up on your list of momo plays today. I have been watching it for a couple of weeks. Did it come up on one of your scans? My feelings are that it may turn out to be a good one.

My MoMo scan simply consists of stocks in the Top 5% of my RS database(which doesn't match others exactly 'cause they have more stocks in their database...I only have about 5,000...but it is consistently within 3 points)...that close up 2%+ on at least 1.5x ADV.

Some of the restaurants do look pretty good right now though and the group was up for the week after 3 down weeks...Doug(IIC)