IIC's Winners Watchlists

[IIC]

Check out CSX.
Did you know that the Transports are starting to look bullish again?

Some of them are...including your CSX...I am mildly surprised that it didn't come back further...Still like KSU better as long as the 20ema holds

[New-born baby]

Some of them are...including your CSX...I am mildly surprised that it didn't come back further...Still like KSU better as long as the 20ema holds

The rails are looking strong due to the expected business from moving this year's corn and wheat crops. CSX chart screams "buy me now!"

[IIC]

The rails are looking strong due to the expected business from moving this year's corn and wheat crops. CSX chart screams "buy me now!"

I keep some of my own little IIC Indices for reference...here is the IIC Railroad Index:

KSU NSC BNI UNP CSX CNI GWR ARII TRN RAIL

[IIC]

I was out all day so no trading...All I have is ASIA from last week

[New-born baby]

I keep some of my own little IIC Indices for reference...here is the IIC Railroad Index:

KSU NSC BNI UNP CSX CNI GWR ARII TRN RAIL

Okay! You've been touting KSU for a week now. SO that does it. I'm going to compare the two charts and we'll see what KSU has to offer these days. lol

KSU: Current price: $37.05. PnF likes it at $17. Sounds like the Kansas City Southern means South in price. lol

CSX: current price $50.26. PnF likes it to $69.

But . . . having said that . . . the weekly for KSU looks like it is going to break out with a new target of $52, provided KSU can clear $40 on volume.

Really both stocks have very similar charts.

[IIC]

I'm not really touting it....In fact I doubt that I will ever buy it...just watched it off and on for quite a while

[New-born baby]

I'm not really touting it....In fact I doubt that I will ever buy it...just watched it off and on for quite a while

You're sentimental about Kansas City.

[IIC]

You're sentimental about Kansas City.

Last time I was in KC was 1972...stayed here: http://www.visitkc.com/meetingplanne...i_number=35443

[IIC]

A Leading Homebuilder Holds a Real Estate "Unauction"

http://gettopstocks.blogspot.com/200...al-estate.html

By Steve Christ | Thursday, February 21st, 2008

They camped out all night in the cold. Wrapped up in sleeping bags and buried in parkas, the would-be home buyers bided their time, hopeful that the home of their dreams would soon be under contract.

And while that may have been a pretty common sight just a few years ago at the height of the housing bubble, on this particular night at least, the sight of so many people standing in line to buy a home was definitely an oddity. After all, the line that formed that night was in California, the epicenter of the housing bust.

But as you can imagine, what was going at that particular sales center was not necessarily normal either. The buyers were the participants in "The Unauction".

So what's an "unauction" you ask?

Well in short, it's just the latest bit of desperation to be tried by one of the nation's big homebuilders, DR Horton as they continue to grapple with the bursting of the housing bubble.

So what began with deep discounts during Christmas in July has now become a panic of "auction level pricing without the hassle".

DR Horton: The Nation's Biggest Homebuilder Stages a Firesale

The brain child of the nation's largest builder, D.R. Horton Inc. (NYSEHI), the unauction is "unlike any sale you've ever seen" according their ad. And with the unheard of discounts of up to 50% off in some 23 developments in Southern California, they may just be right. Buyer's, after all, stood to save as much as $320,000 on spec homes that simply weren't moving.

That firesale came just one week after D.R. Horton announced that it had swung to a 41 cents a share fiscal first quarter loss compared to a net income of 35 cents a share only a year earlier.

Revenues plunged at the Fort-Worth based builder to $1.71 billion from $2.8 billion a year ago, as homes closed fell 36% and the cancellation rate remained at a staggering 44%.

Said Chairman Donald Horton, "Lending standards continue to be more restrictive than during the previous year, and buyers continued to approach the home buying decision cautiously. We expect the housing environment to remain challenging."

But that challenging environment is nothing new to the likes D.R. Horton. After all, it was Horton's Donald Tomnitz that told investors last year that "I don't want to be too sophisticated here, but '07 is going to suck, all 12 months of the calendar year."

And as for 2008, it is really not looking much better, for D.R. Horton or for any of the other homebuilders for that matter.

The Homebuilders and the Housing Bubble Fallout

According to data released by the Commerce Department yesterday, the turmoil that hit the residential real estate market last year has continued in 2008 with housing starts for January remaining at their lowest levels in 17 year.

Construction began on 1.012 million homes in January, up 0.8% from December when the number of new housing units was its lowest since 1991, but down 28% from the year-ago period, which was as bad as Tomnitz says it was.

That makes the current spring selling season as critical as it has ever been, especially for builders with cash flow problems.

So is now the time to be bottom fishing in the builders? Well, not exactly.

The "unauction" is just the first of many firesales as the builders struggle to raise capital at all costs in a market that continues to decline.

That will undoubtedly crush margins even further as it continues to unfold and will leave investors out in the cold this go round as their share prices drop even further.

But it could be worse, you could be one of the people in those "unauction" developments that just saw the equity in their homes cut in half.

They will be out in the cold much longer than just a few nights.

A Note On Home Mortgage Rates

Despite massive rate cutting by the Fed, home mortgage rates have barely budged. That's because as powerful as the Federal Reserve is, it just can't simply jawbone the 30 year fixed rate lower the way that most people believe that it can.

In truth, it is actual market action, and not mere edicts that sets those rates. So while further rate cuts may indeed be in the picture, they may actually produce very little in the lower home mortgage rates that so many are hoping will help bail out the housing market.

In fact, according to the data released by the Mortgage Bankers Association yesterday, U.S. mortgage applications filed last week dropped 22.6% from the previous week, as interest rates on fixed-rate mortgages increased. That marked the biggest decline in more than four years as the highest mortgage rates in two months weakened demand for home buying and refinancing-proving that the Fed's ability to push mortgage rates lower is limited at best.

The bottom in housing is nowhere in sight.

[mystiky]

Hey IBD...Please proof read your paper...Keri says today was a Naz Follow Thru Day...Even by your own statements on your site Q & A an FTD must have higher vol. than the 50 ADV...Wasn't even close.

I'd post the quotes but I don't feel like hearing from your lawyers...If you cannot find them then let me know and I'll email them to you.

Funny, after we sold -142 on the DOW and -27 on the NAZ and -17 on the S&P, the IBD today did not count it as a "distribution" day...

Really?

[IIC]

Funny, after we sold -142 on the DOW and -27 on the NAZ and -17 on the S&P, the IBD today did not count it as a "distribution" day...

Really?

Well...Volume was lower on the DJIA SP500 NYSE IBD 6000...However, it was higher on The AMEX and Naz...I look for p/v but FTD's and DD's are a Fairy Tale that IBD just made up IMO

[IIC]

Wasn't around much today...traded QID early for some lunch money...bot CCC early and put a limit sell on and left...they came up and took me out while I was gone...Saw the last hour and bot BABY late in the 18.90's.

BABY announces pre-m on Tuesday.

Still holding ASIA from last week.

[IIC]

IIC 100

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IIC 100 for 2/25/08

TBSI, PCLN, RRC, MOS, MON, FSLR, LNN, RICK, CHDX, VIP, RIMM, FCSX, BUCY, ISRG, KWK, CEDC, CMP, MEA, JASO, BIDU, CTCM, TKC, SWN, ARD, WMS, WATG, FLS, ICLR, SOHU, AG, PRXL, ANW, HWK, AUY, MA, TISI, CRZO, WBD, BYI, GTI, CTRP, DECK, SPW, HQS, YGE, EXM, ESLT, LSR, URBN, AEHR, CYBS, BABY, GME, CADA, DV, HCBK, SWKS, TNDM, HMSY, RRST, GTLS, CBI, FLI, AMZN, CPHL, LDK, XTXI, TUNE, ZOLL, FLR, SOLF, KNDL, CDS, ERJ, JNPR, GFIG, MR, OMTR, NUCO, CMG, AIRM, FMCN, SINA, WMB, ISBC, WX, PDE, KGS, HANS, CPLA, SYNO, AVD, TASR, HCKT, MELI, CRM, POWL, EGLE, INWK, BEAV

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[IIC]

Traded PWRD for a quarter this morn...was watching FEED for quite a while but never nibbled

[IIC]

GTI...traded for +.31