PCLN ==> The Arbor Day Winner

[skiracer]

Maybe...but it's temporary. I will wait this one out.

mystky,
your article does bring out some significant points and i wont try to deny them because they are valid. but i do believe that this volcanic ash situation and the Greece bailout will pass as everything does and things will return to normal. personally i like to see the euro falling against the dollar. that alone will entice a larger number of people and businesses to visit Europe. a lower euro will provide more bang for your buck which is the fuel that feeds travelers and vacationers thinking about going there or anywhere for that matter. believe me when i say that i am not in love with Priceline or any other stock. like ernie, i believe this is a temporary situation that will provide alot of investors with a great entry point in the stock. to back up your feelings you should buy some puts or maybe short the stock itself. i would be interested in where you feel the bottom is.

[mrmarket]

I urge you amd Ernie to read the following article.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-10/priceline-com-rally-is-at-risk-amid-crisis-in-greece-update3-.html

With all do respect (been on here for 5+ years), I think you guys are falling in love with a company and not the stock. Therefore, you have to understand what this big shift means.

Maybe...but it's temporary. I will wait this one out.

[mystiky]

I urge you amd Ernie to read the following article.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-10/priceline-com-rally-is-at-risk-amid-crisis-in-greece-update3-.html

With all do respect (been on here for 5+ years), I think you guys are falling in love with a company and not the stock. Therefore, you have to understand what this big shift means.

mystky,
it all depends on how you look at it. today the euro / usd closed at 1.22. which is about .25 cheaper than what it was a couple of weeks ago. so if it costs us less to buy the euro then we or anyone else gets more for their buck when they go to europe. do you think more europeans come to the US to visit or do more of the rest of the world go to visit european countries. and will priceline benefit more because of their business model, "name your own price and haggle over it", if the euro is cheaper or higher? the cheaper it is to go to europe for everyone worldwide should only increase priceline's bottom line. the more bang you get for your currency vs the euro should increase the number of those deciding to vacation and/or travel to europe and priceline will get their share of that increase in volume which should increase their bottom line. i dont think a decrease in value of the euro vs the usd is going to hurt priceline. european exporters will benefit in closer parity with the usd because it will be cheaper for them to export their goods and cheaper for others worldwide to buy their goods. but i dont see where a cheaper euro is going to hurt priceline's bottom line.

[skiracer]

Very cogent analysis Ski. I think (and hope) you are right.

thanks ernie. i hope so to. i've got a few sheckles in it now myself. but this recent correction has been as poignant as almost any that i have seen in such a short time frame. it's a great company with a solid business model, strong market share, and definitely a player in the travel realm. i would be surprised if it didnt come back. owning the stock and owning the call options are two different animals though and the time constraints / time decay with the calls will be a factor in my play. i thought today started out great and my optimisim was high but no cigar. i'm somewhat perplexed though and looking at it's charts i keep anticipating where i think it should put a bottom in at but i havent been right yet with it. im still optimistic and believe in the stock and the trade but this has been one hell of a correction in a short time frame.

[mrmarket]

mystky,
it all depends on how you look at it. today the euro / usd closed at 1.22. which is about .25 cheaper than what it was a couple of weeks ago. so if it costs us less to buy the euro then we or anyone else gets more for their buck when they go to europe. do you think more europeans come to the US to visit or do more of the rest of the world go to visit european countries. and will priceline benefit more because of their business model, "name your own price and haggle over it", if the euro is cheaper or higher? the cheaper it is to go to europe for everyone worldwide should only increase priceline's bottom line. the more bang you get for your currency vs the euro should increase the number of those deciding to vacation and/or travel to europe and priceline will get their share of that increase in volume which should increase their bottom line. i dont think a decrease in value of the euro vs the usd is going to hurt priceline. european exporters will benefit in closer parity with the usd because it will be cheaper for them to export their goods and cheaper for others worldwide to buy their goods. but i dont see where a cheaper euro is going to hurt priceline's bottom line.

Very cogent analysis Ski. I think (and hope) you are right.

[microchips]

I didnt get my price at the end of the day on the $6 bid for the 220's but tomorrow is another day. i thought $8 was a deal but i was wrong there again. what was a small play of 4 contracts originally has now risen to 12 contracts at an average of around $12.30.
__________________

Ski.
The 210 calls look pretty good at $9.20 if not a bit expensive. like i said earlier i think i will stop at 21 contracts cos i hate to see my account in the red although it shouldnt be for too long!!!!! As for holidays a lot of people i know are going long haul ie: USA,Mexico,Australia etc or staying home because Europe at the moment is a rip-off and is full of Russians and the old communist block tourists.

[skiracer]

I didnt get my price at the end of the day on the $6 bid for the 220's but tomorrow is another day. i thought $8 was a deal but i was wrong there again. what was a small play of 4 contracts originally has now risen to 12 contracts at an average of around $12.30.
__________________

[skiracer]

looks like PCLN is now below that $200 - that's not a good sign. Also, its now below 200-day.

Also, Mr. Market, you should think about how the US$ strength is going to hurt their earnings in the exchange rate.

I dont think we see $250 for a very long time. Sorry to be a bad-news carrier.

mystky,
it all depends on how you look at it. today the euro / usd closed at 1.22. which is about .25 cheaper than what it was a couple of weeks ago. so if it costs us less to buy the euro then we or anyone else gets more for their buck when they go to europe. do you think more europeans come to the US to visit or do more of the rest of the world go to visit european countries. and will priceline benefit more because of their business model, "name your own price and haggle over it", if the euro is cheaper or higher? the cheaper it is to go to europe for everyone worldwide should only increase priceline's bottom line. the more bang you get for your currency vs the euro should increase the number of those deciding to vacation and/or travel to europe and priceline will get their share of that increase in volume which should increase their bottom line. i dont think a decrease in value of the euro vs the usd is going to hurt priceline. european exporters will benefit in closer parity with the usd because it will be cheaper for them to export their goods and cheaper for others worldwide to buy their goods. but i dont see where a cheaper euro is going to hurt priceline's bottom line.

[mystiky]

looks like PCLN is now below that $200 - that's not a good sign. Also, its now below 200-day.

Also, Mr. Market, you should think about how the US$ strength is going to hurt their earnings in the exchange rate.

I dont think we see $250 for a very long time. Sorry to be a bad-news carrier.

[tiedyed1]

uh, Jazz?
are you on the right board?

[tiedyed1]

Jul 220 calls

The PCLN fundamentals are solid and while environmental incidents (natural and man made) have screwed with our travel industry PCLN is the leader and with a significantly better sentiment than 6 months ago summer travel reservations are being made now.

Friday's have more than ever become the automatic pullback day as there are valid fears going into a weekend; however, I am taking the position that there are high probabilities of solutions and good news forthcoming rather than another catasrophic event.

With that said I picked up 2 contracts of PCLN July 220's for 10.50 this morning as the bottom is in or near and the next weeks is bound to have some positive pops to bring PCLN back to in the money levels.
Also, with PCLN volatility and not getting greedy, these Jul 220 may actually be a good place to trade and something to pop in and out of over the next 3-4 weeks.

Thank you Ernie for the great write up and as with most of your picks I am loving PCLN.

Keep On Keepin' On!

[microchips]

Now AH $217.88 go baby go!!!!!!!!

[microchips]

Ski.
Down to $13.10 at the moment but AH they went to over $215 now back to original like you say should do well on them. Just to cheer everone up the winds around the UK and a lot of Europe are beginning to come from the South which means the airports are open and PCLN should start picking up more trade!!

[skiracer]

Ski,
In the interest of Anglo/American relations and the special friendship between the two countries and people i decided to have a go at PCLN and got in today with July $220 calls for $1440 YEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAA...LOL

i was looking for a better performance today chips but no cigar. thats a cheaper entry you got for yourself. good luck to us all.

[microchips]

In the interest of........

i liked the pick from the start. but the entry point has nothing to do with my liking the pick. i would say that i have liked 85/90% of all your picks but some of the timing in my opinion has been off. but the proof is in the pudding and the results. you never know really. you think you know but then they do what they want to do anyway. i thought i had the bottom this afternoon for sure and made the option trade with the July 10 $220 calls at $16.30 and as soon as i made my entry they dropped to $15.20 or - 1.10. but i liked the way it held up this afternoon. it could have rolled over at the close but didn't and actually strengthened by the end of the day. i think we're going to be in good shape for the rest of the week. i think the selling may be exhausted. anyway i bought 4 contracts @$1630 a each for $6520 and I'm down $440 already. so please don't anyone rely on me.

Ski,
In the interest of Anglo/American relations and the special friendship between the two countries and people i decided to have a go at PCLN and got in today with July $220 calls for $1440 YEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAA...LOL