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high 25.45 today
king is huge !
king is huge !
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this is just the start, we still have the ALZ conference in 2 weeks ELN will annnounce big news in ALZHEIMERS
read the story at www.tixx.com/elan.htm
also S&P rating will improve this week, Elan will pay off some scheduled debt
good luck to all the drug should get approval mid October!Comment
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my guess is We will go above $25.00 today insiders were buyers today as thye excersied thier optiona and held the stock .
couple of new stories in the Boston Globe you can get the link here
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Biogen Idec/Elan: Antegren could shake up MS treatment market
The FDA has granted priority review status to Biogen Idec/Elan's MS drug Antegren.
June 30, 2004 5:38 PM GMT (Datamonitor) - The prospect of faster FDA approval for Antegren is certainly good news for Elan [ELN] and Biogen Idec [BIIB], and confirms its potential to become the next big thing in the multiple sclerosis market. Competing companies will now face even more pressure in an already crowded marketplace.
The FDA's decision to grant priority review status to the multiple sclerosis (MS) drug Antegren means it will now give a response to the new drug application (NDA) within six months of its date of submission, as opposed to the usual timeframe of ten months.
As well as moving Antegren's US launch date forward by four months, this decision by the FDA reflects its initial opinion that Antegren could address unmet medical needs and offer MS patients significant benefits over existing therapies. This is reinforced by the fact that Elan had filed an earlier than expected NDA based upon positive one-year interim results of two Phase III studies.
Five drugs currently serve the MS market, which was worth $2.8 billion in 2003. Avonex, also developed by Biogen Idec, is the market leader and one of three beta interferon products on the market along with Chiron/Schering AG's Betaseron/Betaferon and Serono/Pfizer's Rebif. Teva's Copaxone (glatiramer acetate) was the first non-interferon to be launched and it now holds the second largest market share. Serono's Novantrone (mitoxantrone) is the fifth MS therapy.
Antegren, a humanized monoclonal antibody, potentially offers superior efficacy, combined with a more convenient once-monthly dosage regime. In addition to use as a monotherapy, Antegren is being investigated in combination with Avonex - a potentially highly lucrative opportunity for Biogen Idec. Datamonitor forecasts that Antegren will reach blockbuster status in 2010.
Commercial success for Antegren would provide a much-needed lift for Elan and confirm Biogen Idec's leading position in MS. Companies with older competing products could find that their sales are hit hard by this new competition. According to Reuters, the US market share of Chiron/Schering's Betaseron has already fallen to just above 18%, down from 20.4% in the last quarter of 2003, due to uptake of Rebif and Copaxone. Teva's Copaxone is also likely to suffer, as it could lose its status as the number one non-interferon therapy.Comment
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more good news to report, the stock is up 3% in London today, also alot of insiders had options that expired yesterday..everyone held the stock instead of just exercising the option and flipping the stock..this is great to see..also Dick Thornburg is on the Board of Directors of Elan He would not be here still if Elan had any problems with the SEC...when this matter is finally put to bed look for an honest 10% jump in price
my guess is the sec issue is solved within 4 weeks
here is a link to the insiders BUYS
We should have a new report from Morgan Stanley soonComment
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Elan & Alzheimer's disease article
Dr Selkoe seldom speaks to lay audiences. He makes exception for Jamaica Plain entities since he lives here.
We are sitting on an exclusive that has not seen much distribution.
What is news in the article -which was published about 3 weeks before the Philly conf. First, Dr Selkoe ( of Elan) was the originator of the beta amyloid theory. Second the vaccine invented by Dale Shenck has been used to test the theory. Third, the patients that have been vaccinated have been followed AND tested by Elan since the last vaccination. Fourth, the results of those tests will be made public in Philadelphia. Fifth, DR Selkoe originator of theory and still a director of Elan has told the press -The Jamaica Plain Gazette in an EXCLUSIVE interview- that he "expects the results to be positive". Sixth, Dr. Selkoe labeled this " a big deal" for alzheimer research and science
this is a very small Boston weekly newspaper in the Doctors hometown ..A MUST READ http://www.tixx.com/alzbos.htm
TAKE A LOOKComment
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Biogen's Mullen Sees Antegren Gaining 40%-50% of MS Market
July 7, 2004 06:47 EDT -- Biogen Idec Inc., the third-biggest U.S. biotechnology company, may gain as much as 40 percent to 50 percent of the multiple sclerosis market with Antegren, the drug it is developing with Irish partner Elan Corp.
We will hear big news from ELan next week on their Alzheimer’s Disease
programs take a look
another big date will be when the Antegren filing is formally accepted ..date is now till July 25th
a real nice option to buy is Jan 05Comment
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good time to buy if your out right now....
we should see some postive news in the next 2 weeks from Elan, the focus right now is
SEC settlement
FDA news by July 25th !
and an Alhiemer's disease announcement
Elan Announces Webcast of Data from Its Alzheimer's Immunotherapy Programme to Be Presented at the 9th International Conference on Alzheimer's Disease
Wednesday July 7, 9:01 am ET
DUBLIN, Ireland--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 7, 2004--Elan Corporation, plc today announced that it will host a discussion of the data from its Alzheimer's Immunotherapy Programme to be presented at the 9th International Conference on Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders at the Pennsylvania Convention Center in Philadelphia during the oral presentation session on Wednesday, July 21, 2004 at 3.00 p.m. Eastern Time. Following the session, Elan and its collaborator in the immunotherapeutics programme, Wyeth Pharmaceuticals, will host a discussion of the data at 5.15 p.m. Eastern Time, 10.15 p.m. British Summer Time with the media and the investment community.
This event will be webcast live and can be accessed by visiting Elan's website at www.elan.com and clicking on the Investor Relations section, then on the event icon. Following the live webcast, an archived version of the call will be available at the same URL.Comment
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Elan Corporation ($24.23) 13th July 2004
Recovery Becomes Expansion: Price Target $45 Buy
Rationale for Investing in Elan:
· Elan is still being undervalued: Our Sum of The Parts model prices Elan at $45. In addition, Elan sits on a price to sales ratio of 12.5x a massive discount to other loss-making biotechs that on average enjoy a price to sales ratio of 98x. Elan is being priced more like profitable biotechs that average price to sales ratios of 11x. This is out of synch with the proximity to market of Antegren and the depth of Elan’s Alzheimers Disease pipeline.
· The Elan sponsored Ninth Annual Conference on Alzheimers Disease (AD) in July 2004 offers a focal point for the broader Investment community to become re-acquainted with promising drugs in Elan’s AD franchise.
· Strategic shift from recovery/contraction to expansion/growth.
· Securities and Exchanges Commision (SEC) resolution of investigation is expected in Q3 2004.
Investment Summary
Our view remains that Elan is not being fully valued by the equity market. The legacy of a brush with default and restructuring in 2002/03 are preventing equity investors from assigning full worth to Antegren. Our view is that based on the dynamics of the MS market, Antegren can generate sales of $4bn by 2008, suggesting Elan’s 50% can generate $2bn in sales. Therefore according to our Sum of Parts analysis Elan should have a stock price in excess of $45. In addition, equity investors currently assign little value to Elan’s leading Alzheimer's Disease (AD) research. The Elan sponsored Ninth International Conference on AD should remind the marketplace that Elan will have four AD treatments entering clinical trials over a two and a half year period. If the investment community begins to ascribe more value to Elan’s AD franchise, its share price could see an even more substantial re-rating.
VERY CONSERVATIVE ,WEALTH INVESTOR BROKERAGE IN IRELAND.. they would not come out this strong with having done thier homework..
great news...Comment
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Bloxhams: $45 (07/13/2004: Recovery Becomes Expansion, not time frame given)
NCB: $31.5 within 9 to 12 months (6/28/04: up from 26)
Deutsche Securities: $31 (6/28/04: up from 26)
Goodbody: $30 within 12 months (6/28/04)
Morgan Stanley: $30 (04/24/04 reiterated, original 3/23/04: 12-18 mo. target)
ThinkEquity: $30 (05/19/04, up from $2
Investec: $30 (Date: ?? “Elan was rated new ‘buy’ in new coverage by analyst Scott H. Fullman at Investec. The 12-month price target is $30 per ADR”.
Davy’s: $28.00 (7/8/2004. On 7/2/2004 Powershares posted an unofficial target of $30.)
ING: 24.85 (4/5/2004: initiates buy (from sell), “…sales could reach US$3.5bn, this assumes 17.5% of patients switching from use of interferons.” [Assumes 50% of upside case])
AGEdwards: $24.00 (6/28/04 downgraded from buy to hold, underwater by $0.39 as of this writing. 02/19/04 from hold to buy with target of $18 (the day after the Antegren announcement – Brilliant! – the stock closed at 13.33 this day, The stock had risen $5.18 since AGE’s last announcement). 01/08/04 upgraded from sell to hold (The stock closed at $8.15 on this day, after the stock had risen $7.12 from its low of $1.03). One thing you can say about AGE, their hindsight is better than 20/20.
Lehman: $20.00 (06/29/04 reiterates $20, which is $4.39 underwater as of this writing), last announcement was 03/24/04 when the stock closed at $19.29, $8.29 above their previous target of 11 and just $0.71 less than their new target. Jeeeeeeezzzze! Talk about being slow on the trigger! When it hits $29.99, maybe they will raise the target to $30 like everyone else, who will already be forecasting $40).
Average: $29.49Comment
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$25.32 we are kicking ass today ....
Elan and Wyeth awarded three patents (ELN) 24.54: Elan and Wyeth Pharmaceuticals (WYE) announce that the US Patent Office recently issued Neuralab Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Elan, three patents for the cos' joint research on immunotherapeutic approaches to the treatment of Alzheimer's diseaseComment
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http://www.irishexaminer.com/pport/w...ksg7OWirIStPSk .asp15/07/04
Elan hugely undervalued, says Bloxham
By Conor Keane, Business Correspondent
BLOXHAM Stockbrokers believe Elan is still massively undervalued and has set a $45 price target for the share, up 86% on the €24.23 price range the shares have been trading.
In a note to clients, Bloxham analyst Peter Jackson said: "Our Sum of The Parts model prices Elan at $45. In addition, Elan sits on a price to sales ratio of 12.5x, a massive discount to other lossmaking biotechs that on average enjoy a price to sales ratio of 98x.
"Elan is being priced more like profitable biotechs that average price to sales ratios of 11x. This is out of synch with the proximity to market of Antegren and the depth of Elan's Alzheimers Disease pipeline."
Mr Jackson argued the legacy of a brush with default and restructuring in 2002/03 is preventing equity investors from assigning full worth to Antegren.
"Our view is that based on the dynamics of the MS market, Antegren can generate sales of $4bn by 2008, suggesting Elan's 50% can generate $2bn in sales.
"In addition, equity investors currently assign little value to Elan's leading Alzheimer's Disease (AD) research.... If the investment community begins to ascribe more value to Elan's AD franchise, its share price could see an even more substantial re-rating," he added.
Mr Jackson said that by granting a priority review for Antegren for MS the Food and Drug Administration has removed any uncertainties that the US regulator is not supportive of Elan's novel therapy.
"Our contention is that just as investors underestimated the likelihood that Antegren would receive early approval, they are also low-balling the total market size for a new MS treatment," he added.
Mr Jackson acknowledged uncertainty about the US Securities and Exchange Commission continues to drag on Elan's share price.
"Uncertainty will be removed, even if Elan, under a worst case scenario is hit with a negative ruling from the SEC....The SEC is mandated to protect investors, it will be well aware of Elan's finances and therefore any fine will be of a token nature," he added.
Meanwhile, Elan and Wyeth said the US Patent and Trademark Office recently issued three patents for the companies' joint research on immunotherapeutic approaches to the treatment of Alzheimer's disease.Comment
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TRADING TODAY AS HIGH AS $25.90 !
Elan & Wyeth have a press conference 7/21/04 !
more good news this weekComment
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COMPANIES UK & IRELAND: Alzheimer tests hold key for Elan's future
By John Murray Brown
Financial Times; Jul 20, 2004
Elan's return to health will be markedtomorrow when the Ireland-based pharmaceuticals company, which came close to collapse two years ago, presents the test results of its pioneering Alzheimer's treatment to an international conference on the brain disease.
The World Alzheimer's Congress in Philadelphia will be the first time Elan has disclosed the results of trials of its AN1792 product, a treatment it was forced to withdraw when a small number of patients developed side effects.
That was a significant blow to Elan's ambitions. But the company hopes to dispel some investor concerns surrounding what is just one of the four different Alzheimer's compounds it is developing in collaboration with Wyeth, the US drugs company.
Just to be presenting at what is the main annual brainstorming of neurologists - let alone co-sponsoring the event - is a measure of Elan's recovery.
Kelly Martin, chief executive, says industry colleagues were "amazed" when Elan volunteered to sponsor the meeting.
"But even in the middle of all the turmoil, we knew that this is why we are here as a company. We want to be a significant part of the ultimate response to a terrible disease which currently has no cures," he says.
Last summer the sale of two of its drugs to King Pharmaceuticals, the centrepiece of Elan's recovery plan, looked in doubt. The company was also having difficulties finalising with its auditors its 20-F, the financial statement it is required to file with the US stock exchange authorities.
Mr Martin believes the crisis at Elan was always over the business structures surrounding the science, not the science itself, which he maintains was "always thought of as very good".
Mr Martin was recruited after the old board was forced out in the wake of revelations that the US Securities and Exchange Commission was investigating its accounts. He says the company he took over was overly complex, organisationally and financially. "We wanted to unwind that complexity," he says.
Peter Frawley, pharmaceuticals analyst with Merrion Stockbrokers in Dublin, says: "The old Elan would have had three different salesforces, none of whom talked to each other, and two separate research and development arms, again with no communication.
"Kelly Martin tightened the chain of command and started to address the legal and regulatory risks surrounding the company, while ensuring he had enough resources to fund the research pipeline."
Mr Martin's first priority was to keep the creditors at bay, selling about $1.5bn (£1bn) of assets and raising another $500m through an equity and convertible debt issue.
A big break came earlier this year, when the US Food and Drug Administration announced Elan would only have to submit one year's trial data for Antegren, the company's multiple sclerosis product, and not two as normally required.
"That was not unprecedented but it was unusual," said Ian Hunter, pharmaceuticals analyst with Goodbody Stockbrokers in Dublin.
The SEC has still to announce its verdict. But in May, Mr Martin told the annual meeting that authorities had completed interviews with company officials, and predicted the issue would be resolved by the start of the fourth quarter. Brokers anticipate in the worst case the company could face a small fine. In such a scenario, it is likely the class actions taken by disgruntled investors will also be dropped.
All of this good news has helped push up the share price, which at about $25 has recovered half the ground lost since early 2002 when it fell as low as $2 a share.
Elan is still not making a profit. But Mr Martin says unlike many biotechnology companies, it is not in danger of running out of cash.
The company has about $850m on its balance sheet, with another $300m in investments, including a small stake in Warner Chilcott.
About $390m of debt matures in February and March next year. But Mr Martin says: "We feel very comfortable where we are and we think we have the resources to make sure that Antegren is positioned the right way."
Antegren is being developed in a joint venture with Biogen, which unlike Elan has a good record of bringing products to market.
The MS market is worth about $3.6bn a year. Brokers believe Antegren could double the size. Separately, Elan is seeking European approval as a treatment for Crohn's disease and rheumatoid arthritis.
Mr Frawley at Merrion estimates Elan could be worth $25 to $29 a share - without any value being put on its Alzheimer's programme. He says even a modest breakthrough with its Alzheimer's research could lift the valuation to more than $50.
Indeed some analysts believe the only serious concern facing the company is the possibility Mr Martin, a "turnround" specialist, might be headhunted to take on another challenge.
Not surprisingly he is anxious to quash any such speculation.Comment
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CBS NEWS: positive on Elan ALZ vaccine
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