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This thing could really make a move in the next 12 months, pharma stocks always make big moves with positive FDA news. I'm on the sidelines for the Thanksgiving holiday (will be away from the 'work' of investing), otherwise I'd join you. I have the feeling though that a few days won't matter in the long haul.
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Buy Low
Sell High
STAY FROSTY! -
An interesting note on yesterdays trading, UTHR gained 6.21 or 18% on news they received secondary approval on a hypertension drug while CNCT lost 4.63 or 18% on non approval of a dandruff drug . Why weren't their losses and gains already built into the price beforehand like ELN's seemed to be. Was ELN's approval such a certainty or is it grossly underpriced?
billyjoe
p.s. ELN has 11x the float of CNCT and 18x the float of UTHRComment
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"Tysabri Priced at Premium
Elan announced the wholesale pricing of Tysabri (Antegren) at $1,808 per vial or c.$23,500 annual (based on dosing every 4 weeks). The price is c.30% higher than our forecast for annual pricing of $18,000 and we will be increasing our revenue and earnings forecasts on the back of the higher pricing. Delivery of the first Tysabri shipments to wholesalers are planned for early this week.
The pricing which is c.35% higher than Serono's Rebif and is supported by the improved safety and efficacy profile of the product over the currently marketed drugs. The gross margin on Tysabri is guided to 75% at launch and should increase to 85% over time.
Given Tysabri's efficacy, safety & side-effect and neutralizing antibody data were all in-line or better than our previous assumptions we remain comfortable with our market share assumptions for the product in MS. In our view the strength of the relative improvement in both relapse rate reduction ands lesion reduction seen with Antegren in combination with its benign side-effect profile offers MS patients a viable alternative to the
limited differentiation seen with the Beta interferon therapy options (Rebif, Avonex, Betaseron) or Copaxone.
In summary our assumptions for Tysabri's penetration of the US market are detailed below. We break the US multiple sclerosis patient population available for Tysabri into three broad subgroups. The subgroups and Tysabri penetration of each group is assumed as follows;
(i) New MS sufferers presenting for treatment. Market estimates suggest that approximately 10,000 newly diagnosed patients present each year for treatment and that c.3,000 of these individuals will take Antegren in 2005 and 4,000 per year in 2006-2009."
(ii) Patients switching from other therapies. We estimate c.200,000 individuals will be taking MS disease modifying therapies in 2005 and according to independant clinical research c.10-15% of patients stop or switch therapy each year in the US - usually due to relapses occurring or intolerance of therapy. We forecast that Antegren will benefit significantly by offering a new therapeutic option (to switch to) which has significantly improved efficacy (in terms of relapse rates) over existing therapies. We forecast that 5% and 13% of patients on other MS therapies will switch to Antegren in 2005 and 2006, respectively. In the first five years post launch we forecast that in total c.30% of MS sufferers will have switched from another therapy to Antegren.
(iii) Relapsing remitting MS sufferers currrently not presenting for therapy. Over 100,000 US MS sufferers are estimated to currently not receive any treatment - primarily due to either having fallen off current therapies due to intolerance or never having taken treatment. We forecast that in 2005, 7,000 of these patients will take Antegren and 9,000 per year in 2006-2008.
We forecast that Tysabri will take c.40% market share in MS by 2009. Of the patients we forecast to be taking Antegren in 2008 c.45% are forecast to be newly diagnosed MS patients or patients currently not taking disease
modifying MS therapies."
What about my "upside in the pricing" call? I know my $26k call was ambitious but $23.5k is excellent and is significant upside as predicted last week!Comment
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Elan Corporation plc
30 November 2004
Re: Holding in Company
A letter from Wellington Management Company, LLP dated 29 November 2004, received by Elan Corporation plc on 30 November 2004.
Notification concerning interests in shares of Elan Corporation plc (the " Company)
1.
Wellington Management Company, LLP ("Wellington Management") is registered as an investment adviser with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission and acts as discretionary investment manager on behalf of various separate (the " Accounts") that hold an interest in shares of the Company. Wellington Management's interest in the shares is as an investment manager, as is mentioned in Sections 67(1) and 77(4) (B) of the Companies Act 1990(the "Act"). The Accounts do not act as a group or do the act in concert with respect to the interests in shares. Wellington Management acquired the interested in shares for the Accounts in its capacity as discretionary investment manager to, and solely for the benefit of, the Accounts, and the interests were acquired solely for investment purposes. The shares are registered in the name of the Accounts or the Accounts' custodians or nominees according to their respective holdings.
2.
Wellington Management as discretionary investment manager on behalf of various separate accounts has purchased, in the aggregate, 2,437,754 ordinary shares and 33,445,211 ADR shares. On a converted basis, this represents the equivalent 35,882,965 ordinary shares, or 9.19% of the shares outstanding of the Company. This is an increase of 1 .17% since our notification on November 15, 2004. Therefore, Wellington Management hereby give notice to the Company of such interests in shares, pursuant to the provisions of Sections 67 (1) and 77 (4)(B) of the Act.
3.
This notice is given in fulfillment of, and for the express purpose of discharging the obligations imposed on us by, Sections 67 (1) and 77 (4)(B) of the Act and arising out of the circumstances referred to in paragraph 2.
Julie A Jenkins
Vice President and Counsel
Wellington Management Company, LLP
This announcement has been issued through the Companies Announcement Service of
The Irish Stock Exchange
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock ExchangeComment
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the above post is great news this company only started a position in ELN in July .. they bought 5 million more shares in the last 2 weeks paying $28-30 per share!Comment
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you can never tell what ELn is doing day to day .. but the good news is Capital group filed with the UK that they own 6% of ELN ..of course on a nice green day ELN is red..Comment
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I have become extremely irritated with this stock. It wont move. Whens the time for the next pop. My call was today but I was wrong, I am worried investors are waiting for an earnings report..Comment
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I spoke a day short. $2 gain in two days.Comment
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Is everybody still in this.....I'm up 26% now.Originally posted by Michaelk005
ELN goes up the last 2 days w/nice volume but with no news.
What's up with that? Regards, NormComment
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Im still in, but only a marginal gain, in and out at 19 and back in at 25.95.
long and strong elan
tjKComment
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Elan, the Dublin-listed pharmaceutical group, was up 5.7 per cent to EURO 21.40 - the Eurofirst�s biggest gainer - as speculative buying increased in anticipation of a successful entry in to the multiple sclerosis drug market with Tysabri.Comment
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there is a great article on TYSABRI at the Motely fool
"To stave off Elan bulls, who will say I'm understating the drug's potential because it may be approved for other uses, let me say I know that. Tysabri is in clinical trials for Crohn's disease and rheumatoid arthritis. Approval for either would make it one of the top-selling drugs in the world. The purpose of this article was to calculate sales potential for MS, not for the drug as a whole."Comment
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Two Questions for the King
1.What is your target price on ELN, now that the approval has taken place?
2.Do you have any other huge prospects that might perform like OSIP and ELN did?
Webs...Comment
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I would've expected Elan to pop a lot more than it did upon approval. Why the slow simmer?"Whatever you can do or dream you can , begin it. Boldness has genius,power and magic in it." GoetheComment
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