MY PICK IS ELN

[kingofthehill]

next week is the week Elan starts to talk about how big this drug is going to be, watch Biogen & Elan as they will both rise ..THIS NEW DRUG IS HUGE ANYONE WITH MS SHOULD BE TAKING IT ...

NCB reiterates $37 target price with the following report:

Focussing on Tysabri’s launch
•Elan will report Q4 and FY 2004 results before the market opens on Tuesday February 8 th . For the quarter we expect total sales of $121.1m with $97.1m (+32% y-o-y) from retained product lines (See page 2 for detailed forecasts). Our EPS forecast is -$0.26 before exceptional items. As in recent quarters the results remain of secondary interest with the focus primarily on Tysabri’s US launch for MS. In addition the company’s plans for the US launch of Prialt will also likely be highlighted.
•With IMS data not accurately picking up Tysabri prescriptions (due to its hospital and specialty distribution channels) the market is reliant on updates from both the BiogenIdec and Elan managements for details of the product’s launch. With BiogenIdec reporting and hosting a conference call after the market close on Monday, 7th February, much of the relevant launch detail
is likely to be provided at this point. As we understand it both companies aim to provide details of the number of prescriptions written for Tysabri and the number of patients infused as of the end of January. In aggregate these data should allow a clear assessment of the initial demand and whether the product uptake is tracking in-line with our expectations.
•The most recent update on Tysabri’s launch reported that as of January 15th, 1,600 physicians had prescribed Tysabri to at least one of their patients. This was an increase of 300 physicians on the 1,300 clinicians reported the previous week. Whilst there is likely to be a lag (likely to be several weeks in length) between prescribing and administration of the first Tysabri infusion to a new patient as the reimbursement process is navigated, the wide breath of clinician usage so soon after launch is indicative of a very strong launch. Our forecasts for MS patients on Tysabri by end of January are 1,500, by end March 6,500 and 14,000 by the end of June 2005.
•Management may be in a position to comment on whether factors such as infusion access and reimbursement of Tysabri mono- and combination therapy are proving a significant delay to patient uptake. In addition feedback relating to the demand for Tysabri from the various subgroups among MS patients (new patients, switching patients, previous therapy failures or nïave patients), may be provided.
•Financial guidance for 2005 is anticipated with the results. The previous guidance was for Elan to be cashflow positive in H2 2005. With significant launches planned in 2005 [Tysabri’s launch in the US for MS (on-going), Prialt in the US and Europe and the anticipated european launches of Tysabri for MS and Crohn’s disease in H2 2005] guidance for the launch costs and related infrastructure plans will be of interest.
•The post results conference call is at 13.30 BST, dial in +1 212-676 4900 for non-US callers and +800 621 5170 for US callers.

[kingofthehill]

this is HUGE HUGE HUGE READ THIS LINK

http://www.fhcrc.org/pubs/center_news/2005/feb3/sart1.html

[Michaelk005]

Great article and great news. Im pumped up to see the spreadsheet on tues. I thought id also say look what NRPH has done in the last month. Im kicken myself for not picken up shares at $12..

[kingofthehill]

02/07 19:41 DJ UPDATE: Biogen Idec CEO: Tysabri Reception Strong So Far
By Paula L. Stepankowsky Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

LONGVIEW, Wash. (Dow Jones)--Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB) is seeing strong demand for its new multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri since the product's introduction in November, with between 2,000 to 3,000 patients already receiving it, Chief Executive James Mullen said Monday.

As a result, the Cambridge, Mass., biotech company is continuing to work on its own manufacturing plants, as well as with several contract manufacturers, to ensure an adequate supply of the drug, Mullen said on a conference call with analysts following release of the company's fourth-quarter and full-year earnings.

"We're planning for a very successful product launch," Mullen said on the call. "We're planning manufacturing to keep pace with growing product demand."

Mullen said the company should be able to deal with the expected growth that could see up to 40,000 patients on Tysabri by the end of 2005.

The launch of Tysabri heightens competition in the MS treatment market. Biogen Idec already makes an MS drug, Avonex, which competes with Rebif, made by Serono SA (SRA); Copaxone, made by Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (TEVA); and Betaseron, made by Shering AG (SHR).

After the market closed Monday, Biogen Idec reported fourth-quarter net income of $48.4 million, or 14 cents a share, including merger charges related to the acquisition of Idec Pharmaceuticals and a one-time write-down for certain investments. That's a reversal from a year-earlier net loss of $990.6 million, or $4.03 a share.

Revenue rose to $586 million from $299.8 million a year earlier, beating the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call of $563.8 million.

Excluding charges, Biogen Idec earned $121.4 million, or 34 cents a share, in the fourth quarter, below the mean estimate of 36 cents a share by analysts surveyed by First Call.

It's possible Tysabri revenue available to Biogen Idec in three years could equal that of Avonex at the end of 2004, Mullen said. In 2004, Avonex revenue totaled $1.42 billion.

Biogen Idec is developing and marketing Tysabri in partnership with Elan Corp PLC (ELN).

Based on how the partnership is structured, Biogen Idec will get about half the revenue Elan gets from Tysabri sold in the U.S., said Peter Kellogg, Biogen Idec's chief financial officer in an interview following the call.

Assuming Tysabri is approved for sale outside the U.S., Biogen Idec would record 100% of the revenue and Elan would record 50% of the profits, Kellogg said.

Biogen Idec continues to compete fiercely with Serono's Rebif for market share. Avonex, Biogen Idec's older MS drug, has the leading share in the U.S., while Rebif is the market leader in international markets.

A two-year trial pitting Rebif and Tysabri against one another has just begun. Both companies are also working on oral versions of MS drugs. Currently, MS drugs must be injected or infused.

Kellogg said it's too early to come to any conclusions as oral applications are still in early stage development.

While Wall Street is interested to know how well Tysabri is being received, investors are also wondering to what degree Tysabri may cannibalize Avonex sales.

On the call, Mullen said the company is seeing more interest from physicians in using both drugs in combination than anticipated.

Given the costs associated with launching Tysabri, Biogen Idec said it anticipates low double-digit growth for revenue and adjusted earnings in 2005 on a non-generally accepted accounting principals basis.

It said it estimates its 2005 non-GAAP earnings per share will be in the range of $1.60 to the low $1.70s. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial estimate the company's 2005 operating earnings will be a mean of $1.71.

[kingofthehill]

Drug Co. Elan Reports Narrower Losses

AP Online
08:41 a.m. 02/08/2005


DUBLIN, Ireland, Feb 08, 2005 (AP Online via COMTEX) -- Elan Corp. PLC, the Irish pharmaceutical company, reported reduced losses for the fourth quarter on Tuesday and forecast a return to profit in 2006.

For the fourth quarter ending Dec. 31, Elan posted a net loss of $88.2 million compared to $307.5 million for the same quarter in 2003.

Revenue fell to $123.8 million for the quarter from $138.2 million a year earlier.

Elan's full-year net loss for 2004 was $375.9 million versus $508.7 million in 2003. Full-year revenue fell to $481.7 million from $685.6 million in 2003, reflecting the company's substantial selloff of licenses and retreat from peripheral joint ventures.

Elan executives emphasized their high hopes for the multiple sclerosis-fighting drug Tysabri, a joint venture between Elan and Biogen Idec Inc. of Cambridge, Mass. The drug received accelerated approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration after trials demonstrated that it slowed down or prevented relapses in most MS sufferers.

"While it is early days, the initial take-up since the launch of Tysabri is exceeding all our expectations and we remain optimistic that we will return to profitability by the end of 2006," said Chief Financial Officer Shane Cooke.

Kelly Martin, president and chief executive, said "2004 was an extraordinary year for Elan, with two Elan innovations - Tysabri for multiple sclerosis, and Prialt for severe chronic pain - approved in the U.S., with both therapies advancing in the regulatory process in Europe."

Multiple sclerosis, which has no known cure, attacks and damages nerve tissue, leaving people tired and numb with poor coordination and blurred vision. Without warning, a relapse can erase vision, turn a working arm or leg useless, or numb feeling below the waist.

In 2002, Elan came close to bankruptcy after suffering failed drugs trials, souring acquisitions and an accounting scandal. Under new management, the company has sold off peripheral operations and drugs licenses and concentrated on core research on treatments for chronic pain and nervous system disorders.

---

[kingofthehill]

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/704e1404-80b4-11d9-adb4-00000e2511c8.html

Elan, the Dublin-listed drugs company, was up 4.5 per cent €22 after it said a clinical trial of Tysabri, the multiple sclerosis treatment it is developing with Biogen Idec, had achieved its aims. The companies said the drug led to a 42 per cent reduction in the risk of disability progression in patients with relapsing forms of the condition.

[spikefader]

Hey King.
Thought I'd do make some pictures for ya. My thoughts fwiw.
Good luck.

[jiesen]

wtf?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050228/ms_drug_suspension_10.html

king, I hope you're ok!

[spikefader]

That sux. Sad day for the forum.

[New-born baby]

I am sad for all

King,

I am sorry things have turned downward today. I wish you always and only the best. I hope you had a trailing stop. I feel sick thinking about it.

[stocks54]

It sucks never thought something like this will happen.

[jiesen]

King,

I am sorry things have turned downward today. I wish you always and only the best. I hope you had a trailing stop. I feel sick thinking about it.

Unfortunately, a stop is useless in this situation. The stock opened at 8.85 today, not very far from what it is now.

Always remember that even with a stop, you're at risk of a big gap down.

[mrmarket]

Hang in there, King. You've been a great contributor on this board.

[spikefader]

Unfortunately, a stop is useless in this situation. The stock opened at 8.85 today, not very far from what it is now.

Always remember that even with a stop, you're at risk of a big gap down.

jiesen, have to disagree my friend. Stops can work in PREmarket (if you've got them activated to do so). And stops are never useless. They always do what they're told to do. And if they don't you may have recourse to your broker for not activating your stop as ordered.

If you have premarket market order stop on ELN today, you may have gotten out at 26.76 (where it opened at 8am premarket time). I say may. More likely you would have gotten slippage down 25.00. Looking at the time and sales, it wasn't a dead fast drop, and there were pauses on the way down, which tells me that it wasn't just a pure selling drop. Like most premarket tankers, it takes some time to get down there before the opening price.

Bottom line, a stop out at 25.00 is much much better than 8.88, where it currently sits. Lesson: Use of premarket stops for ELN today would have saved you a lot of money.

[jiesen]

jiesen, have to disagree my friend. Stops can work in PREmarket (if you've got them activated to do so). And stops are never useless. They always do what they're told to do. And if they don't you may have recourse to your broker for not activating your stop as ordered.

Ok, I stand corrected. I hadn't considered pre-market stops. But I also think that trading in the extended hours is a whole other ball of wax, that not everyone is ready for.

Still, a regular-market stop (like I or many here would be most likely to use) would have failed to prevent most of that $18 drop today.

I think the best use of stops is if you intend to trade stocks for just brief periods intraday. Then you minimize the possiblilty of a gap wiping out your position- despite the stop.