MY PICK IS ELN

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  • kingofthehill
    Senior Member
    • Nov 2003
    • 487

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={33214CB0-F928-499E-BF46-78FB1DC4 70C9}&siteid=mktw&dist=nbk




    To print: Select File and Then Print in your browser pull-down menus. Back to story


    Will Tysabri make it back to market?
    Biogen continues to make drug, in hopes of return
    By Val Brickates Kennedy, MarketWatch
    Last Update: 7:24 PM ET May 12, 2005


    BOSTON -- It's been nearly three months since Biogen Idec Inc. voluntarily pulled its multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri from the market over safety concerns, but the company holds out hope the treatment will make a comeback.



    Not only does Cambridge, Mass.-based Biogen continue to maintain inventories of the drug, it also has retained its nearly 100 Tysabri salespeople along with its marketing team.

    And at least for now, Biogen (BIIB: news, chart, profile) still produces Tysabri, albeit at a lower rate. Biogen co-markets Tysabri with Irish drugmaker Elan Corp. Plc. (ELN: news, chart, profile)

    "We have a pretty good feeling that it will go back on the market," said Peter Kellogg, Biogen's chief financial officer. "We had a lot of people lining up for the drug [before the recall] and they're still inquiring."

    While Biogen management continues to be hopeful, one question continues to vex biotechnology investors and medical professionals alike: Can Tysabri, once hailed as a wonder treatment for multiple sclerosis, really make it back to the market?

    Tysabri was recalled by Biogen and Elan on Feb. 28 after two members of an MS clinical trial were discovered to have developed progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, or PML, an extremely rare but deadly brain infection seen mostly in AIDS patients. One patient died.

    A subsequent review of Tysabri patient records revealed a third user also had died of PML, during a clinical trial for the treatment of Crohn's disease.

    As a result, Biogen and Elan have suspended all clinical trials of the drug until it figures out what triggered the PML cases. The companies are engaged in a review of all Tysabri patient files in an effort to solve the puzzle and plan to discuss the results with the Food and Drug Administration later this summer.

    Skepticism

    Biogen and Elan are trying to get Tysabri back on the market to treat MS as soon as possible, but it's likely to be greeted with a good measure of skepticism, analysts say.

    "Confidence in the drug has been damaged," says Deutsche Bank analyst Jennifer Chao. "It will take time for physicians to regain confidence in the drug."

    "I think there's a high possibility that Tysabri will be relaunched onto the market, but with significant labeling," said Chao, who doesn't see Tysabri back on the market before 2006. "I think the FDA will likely insist upon long-term, post-marketing clinical trials. They may allow a relaunch contingent upon finishing those trials."



    Biogen has continued to make Tysabri largely to keep up its inventories of the drug, which takes months to produce, in case of a relaunch down the road.

    The company plans to destroy all returned quantities of the drug, out of safety concerns. Biogen will make a decision as to whether to keep producing the drug sometime next quarter, when it expects the results of its safety review to be completed.

    Based on the antibody natalizumab, Tysabri originally was developed by Elan, which saw its potential in treating such autoimmune disorders as MS and Crohn's disease.

    MS, a progressive disease where the immune system attacks the body's central nervous system, is characterized by lesions on the brain and bouts of physical debilitation. About 400,000 Americans have from the illness.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Websman
      ELN is dropping after hours. Maybe this will give me an opportunity to get in tomorrow morning. Any thoughts?
      Webs, intraday pennant indicates ELN is ready for a move.

      Comment

      • Websman
        Senior Member
        • Apr 2004
        • 5545

        Originally posted by B.J
        Webs, intraday pennant indicates ELN is ready for a move.
        I want to get in tomorrow, but I can't be here to watch the market.

        I'm working on a reasonable entry price right so I can set a limit order. I'm trying not to be too greedy. I've missed out on a lot of good moves by setting my limit price too high.

        Comment

        • spikefader
          Senior Member
          • Apr 2004
          • 7175

          Originally posted by Websman
          I want to get in tomorrow, but I can't be here to watch the market.

          I'm working on a reasonable entry price right so I can set a limit order. I'm trying not to be too greedy. I've missed out on a lot of good moves by setting my limit price too high.
          Channel long today at 7.08 on the daily. Got a good bounce from there, but I don't see a good pattern to confirm an entry yet....
          S2 is 7.38 today, and price is under that so I would suggest waiting for a pattern now....

          Comment

          • kingofthehill
            Senior Member
            • Nov 2003
            • 487

            May 19 2005 HealthTalk.com Live Broadcast on Tysabri sponsored by Elan & BIIB
            Healthtalk.com is having a BIIB/ELN sponsored presentation on May 19th featuring Dr. Steven Galetta.
            Invitation reads: "You won't want to miss this important update on: Emerging treatments such as Minocycline.
            The latest in MRI technology. The role of steroids and immunosuppressive agents.
            A possible timeline for reintroducing Tysabri into the marketplace."

            Comment


            • Settling down nicely near it's 9 DMA on drying volume. Time to add shares?

              Comment

              • Websman
                Senior Member
                • Apr 2004
                • 5545

                Originally posted by B.J
                Settling down nicely near it's 9 DMA on drying volume. Time to add shares?
                I'm wondering the same...

                Comment

                • skiracer
                  Senior Member
                  • Dec 2004
                  • 6314

                  If you wanted to gamble the time to do it was when you could have entered at it's recent low at the $3 range. It was a cheap gamble and the risk/reward would have made the gamble somewhat attractive an a entry at that point would have paid off.
                  Now that the stock has run up 4+ points an is kind of just sitting there in that range bound area between 7 and 7.75 for the time being is not the time for gambling.
                  The reward for the risk may be gone at this current level. If you want a pure gamble play go to a casino and bet either the red or black on the roulette wheel. You'll have a better chance and less pain.
                  It's just about filled the 2nd gap down from the original big gap down on the initial news about the drug in question. That line of resistance is going to be hard to break and to do that is going to take some big event or news otherwise what good reason would it have to go above the current range of 7/8.
                  Last edited by skiracer; 05-19-2005, 08:25 PM.
                  THE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR

                  Comment

                  • Websman
                    Senior Member
                    • Apr 2004
                    • 5545

                    I love the roulette wheel! All those sparkly colors while it's spinning make me go crazy...

                    Comment

                    • skiracer
                      Senior Member
                      • Dec 2004
                      • 6314

                      Webs,
                      And perhaps with a little help from your friends. I love the spinning and bright colors myself. Crazy is not so bad either.
                      THE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR

                      Comment

                      • Websman
                        Senior Member
                        • Apr 2004
                        • 5545

                        Originally posted by skiracer
                        Webs,
                        And perhaps with a little help from your friends. I love the spinning and bright colors myself. Crazy is not so bad either.
                        so true...

                        Comment

                        • noshadyldy
                          Senior Member
                          • Sep 2003
                          • 539

                          just thinking out loud

                          ELN very stubborn around it's 9 dma. Was thinking of shorting it, but I think not! Not yet anyway. I expected a little more rumble after it's presentation last night to the MS community, but just humdrum. ELN is getting boring. However, we do have the May 26th ELN update to possibly stir things up.
                          Stem cell looking really hot lately. hmmmm.
                          "Whatever you can do or dream you can , begin it. Boldness has genius,power and magic in it." Goethe

                          Comment

                          • noshadyldy
                            Senior Member
                            • Sep 2003
                            • 539

                            Well, there went the 9dma. flush...shwirrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrBut as is SO often the case with Scottrrade, no shares available to short.
                            Anyone else notice this about ST?
                            "Whatever you can do or dream you can , begin it. Boldness has genius,power and magic in it." Goethe

                            Comment

                            • noshadyldy
                              Senior Member
                              • Sep 2003
                              • 539

                              well... what to do, what to do?

                              Spike,I'm not sure of a good reentry point for ELN. Last support is now resistance. Should I target next lower support or hold until resistance is broken through? Thoughts? Insights? Tea leaf readings?
                              TomR, could you consult with your darts on this?
                              Thans fellas,
                              m
                              "Whatever you can do or dream you can , begin it. Boldness has genius,power and magic in it." Goethe

                              Comment

                              • spikefader
                                Senior Member
                                • Apr 2004
                                • 7175

                                Originally posted by noshadyldy
                                Spike,I'm not sure of a good reentry point for ELN. Last support is now resistance. Should I target next lower support or hold until resistance is broken through? Thoughts? Insights? Tea leaf readings?
                                TomR, could you consult with your darts on this?
                                Thans fellas,
                                m
                                Ya know, I'm sittin' here after watching that 'Fat Albert' video with the kids.................

                                ...............and I've got one thing to say:

                                "Hey, Hey, Hey, it's time to buy ELN today"

                                Channel turn up today, gives a green light to chase it at the closing price of 7.23 or at the pivot tomorrow of 7.11.
                                As always, honor thy tight stops.

                                Comment

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