MY PICK IS ELN

[Websman]

Jeffrey Kranser is the reporter from the Boston Globe who inaccurately reported that a 4th person had died because of Tysabri. It's obvious that he had a reason for printing his story. he knew what it would make ELN's share price plung. I'd like to personally kick his ---! Yes folks, Websman is a little pissed.
I found a link to an ad Mr placed on April 15 bashing Tysabri and looking for patients who had problems with the drug. http://www.bostoncure.org/Globe/

This article will open your eyes.

Yet another hard but valuable lesson learned. Be wary of market manipulation.

[freewayc]

Hey Web, just answering your poll. I've owned ELN on and off for a while. I bought it when it was 13 and sold a little before the big dive. I bought some more shortly thereafter and am sitting about even now no thanks to that reporter!

[kingofthehill]

Goodbodys - upgrade to buy.

Elan (Buy, Current Price $6.85)
What is material to Tysabri's progress?
After a day with no communication on speculation around Tysabri, a spokesperson for the FDA would now appear to have confirmed that Elan and Biogen Idec have received a report of a suspected case of PML. Given the lack of response from both Elan and Biogen Idec, we infer that the case referred to has been deemed by all parties involved not to be material to the progress of Tysabri through the approval process. The reference to the Freedom of Information Act in earlier speculation is particularly intriguing though. A Federal body can take 20 days to respond to a request for data under FoI and has the opt-out clause that it will not disclose information that it considers to be commercially sensitive. From this, the inference of a fourth potential case (if from an FoI-driven source) could possibly be from data lodged with the FDA some time over the past few weeks. We consider it inconceivable that, if material, that data were not disclosed to the market during this period. Given the recent corporate action (debt retirement) and bullish stance on Tysabri, both Elan and Biogen Idec's definition of "material" will have been closely scrutinised by all parties in the review process. The inference, therefore, is that if there is a fourth suspected case of PML, it has been agreed by all parties involved to be, as yet, immaterial to the progress of Tysabri through the review process. Undoubtedly, it will be discussed at the Biogen Idec AGM today (15:00 Dublin/London).

[Runner]

ELN shows up on my pre-market scan @ 7.00!!

[Websman]

Hey Web, just answering your poll. I've owned ELN on and off for a while. I bought it when it was 13 and sold a little before the big dive. I bought some more shortly thereafter and am sitting about even now no thanks to that reporter!

Good to hear you didn't get burned too bad. I stopped out for a loss, but it didn't hurt me too bad. It just took some of last years profits.

I emailed the reporter who printed the false headline to express my displeasure. of course, I received no response and never will.

If anyone wishes to send him a message, here is his name, number and email address.

Krasner, Jeffrey
Reporter
Business / News (617) 929-3143
[email protected]

Webs...

[noshadyldy]

hmmmmmm anybody venture a guess at a reentry? I did I quick sharpchart (which I still can't post) and it appears that the lower channel is about .50 or so below. Doesn't always touch all the way down of course.

[kingofthehill]

http://www.forbes.com/investmentnewsletters/2005/06/07/cz_mr_0607gurupicks.html?partner=yahootix&referrer=

[kingofthehill]

from european neurological society meeting

Multiple sclerosis 5
Wednesday, June 22, 2005, 11:00 - 11:15
Magnetic resonance imaging results from AFFIRM: a randomised controlled trial of natalizumab in patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis
D. Miller, P. O'Connor, E. Havrdova, M. Hutchinson, L. Kappos, J.T. Phillips, C. Polman, F. Lublin, G. Giovannoni, A. Wajgt, F. Lynn, M. Toal, M. Panzara, A. Sandrock for the AFFIRM Investigators
Objective: To determine the effect of natalizumab (TYSABRI®) on lesion formation as measured by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) over 2 years of treatment in patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis (MS).
Background: Natalizumab, the first selective alpha4-integrin antagonist for the treatment of MS, inhibits the migration of leukocytes across the blood-brain barrier and interrupts the inflammatory cascade in MS. Natalizumab was recently approved for the treatment of relapsing MS based on 1-year results from two phase III studies, AFFIRM and SENTINEL.
Study Design: AFFIRM is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase III trial of natalizumab in patients with relapsing MS. Patients received natalizumab 300 mg or placebo by intravenous infusion every 4 weeks for up to 116 weeks. MRI efficacy endpoints at 1 year were the number of new or enlarging T2-hyperintense lesions and the number of gadolinium-enhancing (Gd+) lesions. MRI efficacy endpoints at 2 years were the number of new or enlarging T2-hyperintense lesions, the number of Gd+ lesions, Gd+ lesion volume, T2 lesion volume, and the number and volume of T1-hypointense lesions.
Results: A total of 942 patients were randomized to treatment with natalizumab (n=627) or placebo (n=315). After 1 year of treatment, natalizumab reduced the mean number of new or enlarging T2-hyperintense lesions by 80% (1.2 natalizumab vs. 6.1 placebo; P<0.0001) and the mean number of Gd+ lesions by 92% (0.1 natalizumab vs. 1.2 placebo; P<0.0001). Sixty percent of patients in the natalizumab group developed no new or enlarging T2-hyperintense lesions compared with 22% of patients in the placebo group. In addition, 96% of natalizumab patients had no Gd+ lesions compared with 68% of placebo patients. The percentage of disease-free patients (defined as no relapses, no new or enlarging T2-hyperintense lesions, and no Gd+ lesions) was 46% in the natalizumab group and 14% in the placebo group. The effects of natalizumab on 2-year MRI endpoints will also be presented.
Conclusions: One-year results showed that natalizumab significantly reduces lesion formation in patients with relapsing MS. Two-year results will further define the effects of natalizumab on inflammatory activity and burden of disease as measured by MRI.

[kingofthehill]

Press Release Source: Elan Corporation, plc


Elan Completes Retirement of over $240 Million of 2008 Debt
Wednesday June 8, 2:30 am ET


DUBLIN, Ireland--(BUSINESS WIRE)--June 8, 2005--Elan Corporation, plc today announced that it has completed the retirement of $242.8 million of its 2008 outstanding debt. As previously announced, Elan has purchased $206.0 million in aggregate principal amount of 6.5% Convertible Guaranteed Notes due 2008 issued by Elan Capital Corp (Guaranteed Convertible Notes) and has purchased $36.8 million in aggregate principal amount of 7.25% senior notes due 2008 issued by Athena Neurosciences Finance, LLC (Athena Notes). Elan Capital Corp. and Athena Neurosciences Finance, LLC are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Elan. The terms of these repurchases were detailed in Elan's June 1, 2005 press release.
In addition, the $206.0 million in aggregate principal amount of the Guaranteed Convertible Notes, which are listed on the Official List of the Irish Stock Exchange and the Official List of the United Kingdom Listing Authority and admitted to trading on the respective main markets for listed securities of the Irish Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange, has been cancelled with effect from June 7, 2005. Following this cancellation, $254.0 million in aggregate principal amount of the Guaranteed Convertible Notes remain outstanding. The $36.8 million in aggregate principal amount of Athena Notes purchased by Elan are held by a subsidiary of Elan and are expected to remain outstanding.

About Elan

Elan Corporation (NYSE:ELN - News), plc is a neuroscience-based biotechnology company. We are committed to making a difference in the lives of patients and their families by dedicating ourselves to bringing innovations in science to fill significant unmet medical needs that continue to exist around the world. Elan shares trade on the New York, London and Dublin Stock

[jiesen]

Good news for ELN: Light spotted at end of tunnel

http://www.forbes.com/markets/2005/0...ootix&referrer=

Path Outlined For Tysabri To Return
06.09.05, 12:12 PM ET



Earlier this year, Biogen Idec (nasdaq: BIIB - news - people ) and Elan (nyse: ELN - news - people ) pulled their multiple sclerosis drug, Tysabri, after the drug was linked to a disorder called progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML). Three of the 3,000 patients who took Tysabri in clinical trials developed PML, which is caused by the JC virus, which is often dormant in many patients. Today, the New England Journal of Medicine published case reports on all three of those patients. Alongside the reports, which provide a great deal of detail on how PML developed, the journal also published an editorial by Joseph Berger and Igor Koralnik, two of the world's top experts in PML who have worked as consultants for Biogen Idec and Elan. The two write that the linkage between the drug and PML, though unexpected seems clear. But they also provide a bit of light to investors, writing that it may be possible to detect the proliferation of JC virus before much of the damage is done and then stop Tysabri treatment. It remains an open question whether the Food and Drug Administration will require a new clinical trial to prove that is the case. Biogen Idec says it hopes to finish its safety review by the end of the summer. Shares of Biogen Idec and Elan were both up 4% ahead of the announcement.--Matthew Herper

[kingofthehill]

Elan, Biogen Up on Tysabri Comments
Thursday June 9, 5:25 pm ET
Elan, Biogen Up After Medical Journal Publishes Comments on Multiple-Sclerosis Drug Tysabri

PHILADELPHIA (AP) -- Shares of Elan Corp. and Biogen Idec Inc. jumped Thursday after the New England Journal of Medicine published comments online that might offer a way for the companies' troubled multiple-sclerosis drug Tysabri to return to the market.
Dublin-based Elan's American depositary receipts closed up 77 cents, or 12 percent, at $7.37 on the New York Stock Exchange. Biogen shares closed up $1.78, or 5.3 percent, at $35.13.

Doctors at Biogen in Cambridge, Mass., said in the medical journal that it may be possible to make an early diagnosis of a deadly infection linked to the drug and stop Tysabri treatment in time to allow patients to recover.

Tysabri was pulled from the market earlier this year after two patients from clinical trials were diagnosed with progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, or PML, a debilitating and often deadly brain infection. One of those patients died, and a third, who had taken part in testing the drug for Crohn's disease and died, also was later found to have had PML.

The drug had won accelerated approval from the Food and Drug Administration and had been expected to be a blockbuster. The companies' shares have slipped dramatically in the past few months.

"We continue to believe it is still possible that Tysabri will be back on the market, given the strength of the efficacy data in MS patients and the need for a new therapy," said Elise Wang, an analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup, in a research note.

Wang said Tysabri likely will carry a "black box" warning if it is brought back, which could limit its sales.

Citigroup Global Markets is a market maker in Biogen's stock and owns 1 percent or more of the company's shares. It couldn't immediately be determined if Wang owns shares.

The New England Journal of Medicine posted the comments online as part of a group of reports and editorials about Tysabri. The journal published them early after a report last week that a fourth patient on the drug may have developed PML.

[kingofthehill]

07:22 BIIB Biogen Idec: Doubt Cast on 4th Case of Illness on M.S. Drug - NYT (35.13 )

NY Times reports that a BIIB official has sent an e-mail message to neurologists suggesting that a suspected fourth case of a brain infection in a patient taking the drug Tysabri was a false alarm, according to two doctors who received the message. The e-mail message said the patient was shopping when she heard news reports last week that she had the potentially fatal infection. Word of the e-mail message emerged on the same day The New England Journal of Medicine released several papers on the three people who contracted the rare but deadly viral infection after taking Tysabri, a multiple sclerosis drug. The papers suggested, at least to BIIB, that it might be possible to detect the virus in blood early enough to avert serious consequences of the infection. If that were the case, it might be possible for the drug to return to the market. Biogen's interpretation was presented in a letter that will be published with the documents released today in the July 28 issue of the journal. Elan (ELN) is co-developer of Tysabri.

[kingofthehill]

it has come to pass. Safety review is done. No more PML. No JC in CSF. Data will be submitted in 2 weeks. Full data compilation is almost complete. BIIB/ELN will formally ask for a safety panel review. Tysabri will be back on the market between Aug.-Oct. EDSS scores will show Tysabri reverses damage. All in my humble opinion....cheers


I HAVE HEARD THE ABOVE FROM A NUMBER OF SOURCES TODAY!

[Websman]

it has come to pass. Safety review is done. No more PML. No JC in CSF. Data will be submitted in 2 weeks. Full data compilation is almost complete. BIIB/ELN will formally ask for a safety panel review. Tysabri will be back on the market between Aug.-Oct. EDSS scores will show Tysabri reverses damage. All in my humble opinion....cheers


I HAVE HEARD THE ABOVE FROM A NUMBER OF SOURCES TODAY!

Interesting. What's you're best guess on where the price may go King?

[kingofthehill]

websman in the short term i dont know but by year end i see $20.00 as in range



June 12, 2005

Biogen e-mail fiasco clouds prospects for Elan’s MS drug
Douglas Dalby

BIOGEN, Elan’s partner in the development of the multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri, has puzzled several American neurologists by sending them an e-mail suggesting that reports of a fourth case of a deadly brain infection in a patient taking the medication were untrue.
The e-mail appeared to undermine a report in The Boston Globe the previous week that a fourth case of PML, an extremely rare and incurable fatal infection that attacks the immune system, had been found in a patient who had been treated by the drug.

The Globe based its report on a message Biogen sent to the American Food and Drug Administration (FDA) informing it that a fourth patient may have contracted the disease. The data had been released under the US Freedom of Information Act.

However, the e-mail apparently sent by Michael Panzara, a doctor at Biogen, to several named neurologists, appears to contradict the newspaper report. Biogen has refused to confirm its existence.

The confusion surrounding the e-mail will likely leave both companies with more questions to answer just after a report in The New England Journal of Medicine raised hopes of Tysabri’s return to the market.

The drug was withdrawn in February after the FDA was notified that a patient using a combination of Tysabri and Avonex, an established drug produced by Biogen, had contracted PML. The companies are hoping to establish that Tysabri can be safely administered on its own.

Shares in both companies spiked when the medical journal released separate papers on three Tysabri patients who had contracted PML, that appeared to suggest that early detection could avert the infection taking hold.

In a letter to the periodical to be published on July 28 but released last week, Biogen said the cumulative findings of these papers meant early detection of PML in patients could prevent the infection becoming fatal by discontinuing Tysabri treatment.

Some neurologists have disputed this interpretation. Joseph Berger, the co-author of an editorial in the July 28 edition of the medical journal, said: “We don’t know if simply stopping the drug once the virus is observed is going to prevent the development of the disease.”

In a separate development, court documents show that Donal Geaney, the company’s former chief executive, is seeking $16.3m (€13.4m) compensation for losses he claims he incurred when the company refused him leave to exercise share options. He also describes as “puzzling” Elan’s decision in 2003 to settle with the American Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) without admission of liability over its accounting practices.


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