MY PICK IS ELN

[Runner]

ELN 60 min intra day look. Note the Bull/Bear line

[kingofthehill]

Tysabri Makers Report Some Positive Data
Thursday June 30, 7:04 am ET
Makers of Troubled Drug Tysabri Report Positive Trial Results for Crohn's Disease Sufferers


DUBLIN, Ireland (AP) -- The Irish and U.S. makers of Tysabri reported Thursday that the drug -- currently suspended from sale because of a possible link to a deadly disease -- has produced positive results in an advanced trial for victims of Crohn's disease.
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Elan Corp. of Ireland and Biogen Idec Inc. of Massachusetts have jointly developed Tysabri to suppress the symptoms of multiple sclerosis, which attacks the body's central nervous system, and Crohn's, which inflames the gastrointestinal system.

Tysabri went on sale late last year in the United States after testing strongly on MS sufferers, but was withdrawn Feb. 28 after being linked to two patients who contracted a rare and usually fatal brain disease called progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, or PML. One of those patients died. On March 30, Elan and Biogen announced that a Crohn's sufferer who had been taking Tysabri also had died of PML.

The Boston Globe and Wall Street Journal this month reported possible fourth and fifth cases of PML in Tysabri users, but Elan and Biogen have both declined to comment on those reports.

Elan and Biogen said Thursday that a third-phase trial of 510 Crohn's sufferers in 114 locations, called "Encore," had produced a reduction in symptoms within 12 weeks of treatment.

"The results of the Encore study are encouraging because patients treated with Tysabri achieved a significant improvement in symptoms of this devastating, chronic immune disease," said Lars Ekman, president of research and development at Elan.

Ekman said the trial results were being forwarded to U.S. Food and Drug Administration officials in hopes of encouraging a decision on whether Tysabri can be returned to the market.

Investors chastened by Elan's heavy declines since Feb. 28 gave the latest news a muted reaction Thursday. Elan shares rose 2 euro cents to euro5.62 (US$6.77) by midday on the Irish Stock Exchange, about a quarter of their value before Tysabri's withdrawal from the U.S. market.

[kingofthehill]

not my words but I concur with the writer, this is really big news! _KINGOFTHEHILL


JNJ sells over $1 Bill ( posted here $1.5 Bill) of remicade for crohns. Side effects from crohns include TB and lymphoma plus lots of nasty other stuff.

Expect Tysabri to jumo off shelves once re-introduced. If "high titer" process is approved for RTP, and if EMEA approves T for crohns and MS in EU at same time as FDA does so in US, we may see a shortage of T by end of 06 -until Denmark comes on line.

If T explodes out of box, expect Mullen to get fired for the foolish, self protective decision to sell NEMO for cost in a biological manufacturing shortage environment.

He's a great tap dancer so expect to see a lot of really good tap dancing about March 06 when the shortage starts to become apparent.

280,000 tysabri patients means $6,580,000,000 gross revenue with 1/2 to Elan. That's the up side by end of 06- remember NO SIDE EFFECTS GREATER THAN THOSE SEEN WITH PLACEBO. Compare that to Remicade.

Elan just became the biggest success story in biopharma history. T mono works for MS and crohns, PD vaccine seems to work, AN1792 was first to work for alz, aab-001 may be successful, acc-001 may also be successful, Nanotech works, DD works, and our financial house is in order.

Thank you Elan.

[Websman]

This is truly great news King! I'm glad I bought back in while I still could. Although I'm only holding 1000 shares, it could still make for a pretty good profit and could really give a boost to my meager account.

I'll continus holding. The worst case scenario is that ELN goes to $0 and I loose $6,800. The best case scenario is that ELN goes to $50 and I pocket over $43,000 in profit. It's a gamble, but a gamble well worth taking.

Heck I'll even take a small move to $15...

Webs...

[Websman]

The train is headed towards the station. It's still not too late to buy a ticket.

http://www.thisisms.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=224

[spikefader]

The train is headed towards the station. It's still not too late to buy a ticket.

I think the train is AT the station........so all aboarrrrrrrrrrd!
You've got the little gray channel long and the purple channel turn up.



And remember, the bullish move in late April is solidly supported by the wave count, with the C entry being the 5.73 on the daily:

[Runner]

Spike, if your wave count is correct would it not be wise to wait on the C entry? Entry into a B is what they call a suckers entry. If this is true maybe the train is still headed to the station...

[Runner]

I think I’m going to pass on ELN for awhile. I played it awhile ago for a nice profit, but the daily chart looks like a shot gun. I want it to climb above the 7.00 and stay. It does look as if 6.30 is the reversal day, but confirmation has not been strong. Then again what do I know. For those holding I want this thing to pop and stick.

[skiracer]

I've been reading all the posts on this stock and have been quietly hoping to see it go off. I've been trying to bring myself to buy a few shares just to have in anticipation of them reinstating the drug into production and distribution again. Without that what does it have going for it right now. If the chart does show possible entries would you buy it just on a bet that technically the chart is showing a possible setup but that the stocks principle earning power is still out of production and distribution and they are not earning any money while this situation persists. The other point is that the presumption of the drug coming back onto the market is a gamble and that in itself is worth a shot but not an educated researched position fundamentally or technically. I want to buy a few shares just on the second scenario. It's only money.

[Websman]

ELN is still a good stock, even without Tysabri. Here's a quote from Forbes...

"After bottoming at about $3 in March, the stock has lately been trading between $6 and $8. Is this a good time to gamble on Elan, or is it wiser to sell into the bounce? We believe it's time to buy Elan.

Even without Tysabri, Elan has annual revenue of about $400 million and could be at break-even earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization by the end of the year, according to the company's chief financial officer. Elan (nyse: ELN - news - people ) also has other assets with good potential over the next several years in the areas of drug delivery and Alzheimer's research. Their Alzheimer's research is a collaboration with Wyeth (nyse: WYE - news - people ) where they look to use the patient's own immune system to remove beta amyloid plague. This is a second-generation effort that is currently in Phase II."

Link - http://www.forbes.com/investmentnews...otix&referrer=

[spikefader]

Spike, if your wave count is correct would it not be wise to wait on the C entry? Entry into a B is what they call a suckers entry. If this is true maybe the train is still headed to the station...

Lord forbid I'd ever be a sucker! hehe. But you misunderstand......that wave count chart was for the bullish run of days back in April. I showed it to highlight the fact that there is a clear bullish count that preceded the consolidation of price where it has floated the last 2 months between 6.08 and 8.42 (if you call that floating lol).

So the reasoning is that there is something technically solid that brought it up and has held it, and now with the channel long and the channel turn up it's a green light for an aggressive entry on Tuesday. Stop under the C long entry back at 5.73 or if that is too rich for your blood, stop under 6.30. As far as r/r goes, the target is a gap fill at $26.75, which allows a bigger % risk. But seriously folks, as far as technicals goes for my setup, it's as ripe as it gets. Risking $1.04 or 15% for $20.00 or 295% profit. R/R ratio is thus 1:19 which is fantastic. As far as fundamentals go, I'm not even gonna bother; the chart is whisperin' what it's whisperin'; and it is what it is. It's a speculation play and it's biotech. It's a great bullish chart, and I mentioned all this because plenty are watchin' this one, and I'd love for King and Webs and whoever else is on this puppy to make a killing!

[New-born baby]

The Good, the bad, and the Ugly

ELN's charts are Good and Ugly:

Here's the Good Chart: weekly:


Here's the Ugly:


Which one do you believe?

One thing you can see by all the gaps on the daily: ELN is a wild stock. It kicks around like a bunking bronco.

I would agree with Runner in thinking that a move above $7 is safest, in that $7 has been the resistance for ELN. A move above it on volume would be a signal that the train is leaving the station for points North. (This thing may leave the station for points South, but I don't want to be on it!).

Lastly, and I know I am not any kind of an expert, but I think the market is very weak right now. We had a move upwards on lower volume, and most of the stocks I have been looking at have moved up on lower volume--a major cause of concern.

[Runner]

Lord forbid I'd ever be a sucker! hehe. But you misunderstand......that wave count chart was for the bullish run of days back in April. I showed it to highlight the fact that there is a clear bullish count that preceded the consolidation of price where it has floated the last 2 months between 6.08 and 8.42 (if you call that floating lol).

So the reasoning is that there is something technically solid that brought it up and has held it, and now with the channel long and the channel turn up it's a green light for an aggressive entry on Tuesday. Stop under the C long entry back at 5.73 or if that is too rich for your blood, stop under 6.30. As far as r/r goes, the target is a gap fill at $26.75, which allows a bigger % risk. But seriously folks, as far as technicals goes for my setup, it's as ripe as it gets. Risking $1.04 or 15% for $20.00 or 295% profit. R/R ratio is thus 1:19 which is fantastic. As far as fundamentals go, I'm not even gonna bother; the chart is whisperin' what it's whisperin'; and it is what it is. It's a speculation play and it's biotech. It's a great bullish chart, and I mentioned all this because plenty are watchin' this one, and I'd love for King and Webs and whoever else is on this puppy to make a killing!

Sorry for the mess up Spike. I see the date on the intraday chart!!

[Websman]

From the Yahoo boards...



"Elan Corporation: Does AVONEX lead to Tysabri "overdosing"?

· We have reviewed the data available in Tysabri’s Biological License Application (BLA) in an attempt to understand why PML developed in two multiple sclerosis patients on Tysabri and AVONEX combination treatment. This analysis revealed that after a relatively short period of combination treatment that AVONEX had a significant effect on the accumulation, clearance and half-life of Tysabri and essentially leads to almost double the intended Tysabri concentration after only 20 weeks of treatment. Patients on Tysabri alone did not accumulate the drug. This suggests to us that over a sustained period of Tysabri and AVONEX treatment, the trends of accumulation and reduced clearance of Tysabri leads to an “overdosing” of patients with Tysabri.
· Given Tysabri’s mechanism of action, we suggest a possible explanation for the occurrence of PML in patients on combination treatment. The absence of confirmed cases in the monotherapy group (without a complicating factor) gives us comfort in our thesis.
· We believe that the potential oversuppression of the immune system in patients on Tysabri and AVONEX combination treatment will form a central plank of the case made to the FDA for the re-launch of Tysabri (as a monotherapy). The efficacy of Tysabri in treating multiple sclerosis is undeniable and we continue to believe that Tysabri will return to the market as a significant therapy. We are assuming a re-launch in 2006 with the product achieving 10% market penetration in the multiple sclerosis market in the US and in Europe by 2009. This level of market penetration can support a revenue potential of c.$1bn for use in multiple sclerosis alone implying a sum-of-the-parts value of $9.74-$11.95. At the current price of $6.77 (€5.44), the stock is trading 44% below the bottom of our SOTP range. The stock remains high risk and speculative. We maintain our Buy recommendation.
Orla Hartford Ph.D
NCB Stockbrokers
+353 1 611 5844"

[kingofthehill]

http://www.tixx.com/NCBelan7-5-05.pdf

29 page report on elan written today