MY PICK IS ELN

[kingofthehill]

SPike what does the chart say?

[spikefader]

Spike your the KING,
great trade on the Feb 20's
you kicked ass they are worth 80 cents!!!!! now
ok time for you to pick another option play

Cool! That reminds me; I was going to revisit the straddle(strangle) play from late Dec and see how it went. I'll search for the post now...

[spikefader]

.....Long 7.50 strike Feb puts for $0.20
Long 20.00 strike Feb calls for $0.20
.....Say you buy 10 of each; it costs you $200 for the calls, $200 for the puts, add your commission of $20 (only one way cuz if they don't move you won't pay to sell 'em, and if it does move then you won't care about the 20 bucks exit fee haha). So all up, the play costs you $420......Let's see how it pans out; I'll revisit those quotes in a month or so...

OK, I see those 7.50 strike puts are still trading at 0.05x0.10, so if you hit the bid you'll get 50 bucks for the puts and the 20 strike calls traded up to 80c on Friday, so got as good as +800 bucks for them. Total of +$850, which is +$450 or roughly 112% return on the play in 3 weeks.

$1 a side commissions at a broker like IB drop that by 40 bucks, but still a very neat little return considering the outlay and the fact it was a hedged play....

And frankly, you'd be crazy to exiting this play yet. With still 5 weeks til expiry and ELN acting impulsively, and volume coming in, and good upside target, you'd be holding this one with stop to even and see what the market gives you.

I'll check back in on the quotes in a few weeks...

I'll do a chart now, and see where we're up to with the count.

[spikefader]

SPike what does the chart say?

OK, here it is. I think people looking to get on board would be wise to bid low for a lower black 4 entry to catch black 5 and pink 3 completion, take profits early and THEN look to re-enter at pink 4 completion to catch the 5th up, or just wait for the pink abc to come in a couple weeks. The problem with buying 4s is your chances of stopping out after a nice impulse and quick profit increases. Take the impulse, step aside and look for a 2, a, or c entry. They are the good ones. I think the c is THE best, followed by the 2. The others you have to be nimble with.

[kingofthehill]

there has not been any value given to Elans Alzheimer's disease vaccine drug since 2002 when the stock was $60.00..that seems to be changing rather quickly

Élan $16.02 BUY

Alzheimer’s Disease Research Gathers Pace
• In a Reuters interview on Friday Wyeth’s head of Neurology discovery said that the
company intends to expand on the number of Alzheimer’s disease products in clinical
development with Élan co-developing one of the Alzheimer’s products expected to
enter the clinic this year.
• Élan currently has two Alzheimer’s disease products in clinical trials with Wyeth as a
co-development partner. AAB-001 (a monoclonal antibody) and ACC-001 (an
immunoconjugate) are in Phase II and Phase I clinical trials respectively with Wyeth
expecting AAB-001 to receive FDA approval “as soon as 2009”. This would appear an
ambitious timeline with Phase II efficacy and safety data on AAB-001 not expected
until later in 2006/early 2007.
• To date no clinical data is available for AAB-001 and we have not factored in a material
contribution from this drug to our current assessment. Should data emerge that this
product can slow Alzheimer's disease progression, there is scope for a very significant
uplift in valuation.
• Click Here to access the Elan page on NCB’s online Irish Equity Stock Guide
Orla Hartford +353 1 611 5844 [email protected]

[kingofthehill]

tHANKS SPIKE FOR THE CHART

Elan (Add, Closing Price $16.02)
Reporting date coincides with Wyeth, not Biogen Idec.

Analyst: Ian Hunter
On Friday after the markets closed, Elan announced that it will report its Q4'05 and full year results on Tuesday, 31 January. Biogen Idec is reporting results on Wednesday, 15 February. This implies that there is no new substantive information on Tysabri in the offing. The market is already awaiting newsflow on the timing of the sitting of an expected FDA review committee on Tysabri. The Administration will then make its decision on the return of the drug on or before 26 March. The reporting date is, however, the same as Wyeth, its partner in Alzheimer's research. The partners have one drug (AAB001) in phase II and a second (ACC001) in Phase I.

[Websman]

$60 would make my portfolio look good...

[kingofthehill]

SPike nice call on buying the dip...some run today

[kingofthehill]

16.81 nice run

[spikefader]

Well a short 5th handed to us
There's the corrective a. Anyone who buys this dip should be targetting short unless you wanna hold through a 'c' that will likely steal any profit you get buying a bounce here. Looks like 5th completion to me. Buy the 'a' completion to target end of 'b'. Stop under low if ya do! That's about 2% risk.

[spikefader]

14.40, current levels is daily channel long territory. Start lookin' fer the pattern now....

[noshadyldy]

Well a short 5th handed to us
There's the corrective a. Anyone who buys this dip should be targetting short unless you wanna hold through a 'c' that will likely steal any profit you get buying a bounce here. Looks like 5th completion to me. Buy the 'a' completion to target end of 'b'. Stop under low if ya do! That's about 2% risk.

Gee Spke, ya lost me without the pretty pictures and all. Bottom line, what's the projected bottom line? How low can she go?

[noshadyldy]

Gee Spke, ya lost me without the pretty pictures and all. Bottom line, what's the projected bottom line? How low can she go?

The ol quick and dirty holding the index card against the screen suggests around $13. Whaddaya think, Spike?

Gotta get me a new pic. I ain't smilin!

[noshadyldy]

14.40, current levels is daily channel long territory. Start lookin' fer the pattern now....

oh... we must have crossed in the "mail."

[spikefader]

lol noshady
this is why selling 5ths is good. I was expecting a flush, but sheeeeesh.
here is the pattern to confirm the channel long 14.60 risking 4.3% with stop under lod.